1. Crop Market Update Citizens Savings Bank Producer Meeting Calmar, Iowa
Dec. 14, 2015
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 Δ Area Planted
(mil. acres)
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.4
Yield
(bu./acre)
123.1
158.1
171.0
169.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,654
Beg. Stocks
989
821
1,232
1,731
Imports
160 36 32 30
Total Supply
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,415
Feed & Residual
4,315
5,040
5,315
5,300
Ethanol
4,641
5,124
5,209
5,200 25
Food, Seed, & Other
1,397
1,369
1,359
1,380
Exports
730
1,920
1,864
1,750
-50
Total Use
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,630
-25
Ending Stocks
1,785
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.65
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2015 Δ
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.2
76.8
83.3
83.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
40.0
44.0
47.5
48.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,042
3,358
3,927
3,981
Beg. Stocks
169
141 92
191
Imports 41 72 33 30
Total Supply
3,252
3,570
4,052
4,203
Crush
1,689
1,734
1,873
1,890
Seed & Residual
105
107
145
133
Exports
1,317
1,638
1,843
1,715
Total Use
3,111
3,478
3,861
3,738
Ending Stocks
465
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
14.40
13.00
10.10
8.90
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

5. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

6. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

8. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

9. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

10. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

11. Corn Grind for Ethanol

12. Current Corn Futures
3.75
3.55
Source: CME Group, 12/7/2015

13. Current Soybean Futures
8.61
8.59
Source: CME Group, 12/7/2015

14. 2015/16 Crop Margins

15. 2016/17 Crop Margins

16. Corn Price Distributions

17. Soybean Price Distributions

18. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

19. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

20. Iowa Corn Costs Overall 75% increase 88% 26% 88% 46%
Source: AgDM A1-21

21. Iowa Soybean Costs Overall 69% increase 88% 14% 56% 72%
Source: AgDM A1-21

22. Iowa Corn Costs
Source: AgDM A1-21

23. Iowa Soybean Costs
Source: AgDM A1-21

24. Margin Maneuvers Negotiate lower land rental rates
Explore variety choice (seed cost vs. seed benefits)
Soil test and apply required fertilizer
Examine and control other input costs (pesticides, herbicides, etc.)
Be more aggressive marketing on rallies
May look to limit losses, as opposed to capture profits
Singles & doubles vs. Home run strategy

25. Margin Maneuvers Fully utilize government programs
ARC-CO, PLC, crop insurance
Break price into futures and basis components to capture improvements in either
Put the pencil to paper and calculate storage benefits/costs
Will a traditional seasonal price swing cover storage costs?
What are futures prices telling you about storage opportunities now?
Remember, Rome wasn’t built in a day
It took us awhile to get into this situation and it will take awhile to get out.

26. Ag Decision Maker

27. Marketing Information

28. Crop Marketing 101

29. Iowa Commodity Challenge

30. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: