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State Climate Office Drought Update

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Presentation on theme: "State Climate Office Drought Update"— Presentation transcript:

1 State Climate Office Drought Update
Adnan Akyuz, Ph.D. NDSU, AES State Climatologist Updated 8/30/2018

2 Countywide Precipitation Anomalies and Rankings
July 2018 (48th Wettest) June-July 2018 (22nd Wettest) Blue/Brown colors indicate wetter/drier than long-term ( ) average.

3 Countywide Temperature Anomalies and Rankings
July 2018 (60th Warmest/65th Coolest) June-July 2018 (17th Warmest) Blue/Brown colors indicate wetter/drier than long-term ( ) average.

4 30-Day Precipitation Total Accumulation % of Normal (NDAWN Images)

5 Long Term Precipitation % of Normal
60 Days 90 Days (NDAWN Images)

6 (% Change from previous week)
Cumulative % area (% Change from previous week) None 20% (-2%) D2 3% (0%) D1 26% (0%) DO 80% (+2%)

7 State Coverage and Intensity

8 Drought Change One-week Change 4-week Change

9 Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide)
329 (Aug 8, 2006) 295 (Aug 8, 2017) 109 (+3) Drought Severity and Coverage Index = ADO + 2AD1 + 3AD2 + 4AD3 + 5AD4 (Akyüz, 2007) Where: A is a % of the state covered under the corresponding D-severity

10 Accumulated Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide)
10,192 (+109) 9,530 10,645 9663 19,319 2116 1714 *Numbers indicate the area under the DSCI Index Curve *Akyuz (2017)

11 Soil Moisture and Bare Soil Temperature
Soil Moisture Departure from Normal 5-week Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) (40mm = 1.6”)

12 7-day Forecast* Thu 1am, Aug 30 through Thu 1am, Sep 6
*College of DuPage Next Generation Weather Lab

13 14-day Forecast* Thu 1am, Aug 30 through Thu 1am, Sep 13
*College of DuPage Next Generation Weather Lab

14 Medium Range Forecast Week 3-4 Precipitation Week 3-4 Temperature

15 Long Range Forecast CPC Sep-Nov Precipitation Outlook
CPC Sep-Nov Temperature Outlook

16 County-wide Agricultural Impacts for the week
Climate Division Drought Impact by counties 1: North-West 2: North-Central Rolette: Severely Dry. Pastures are bare. Producers are looking at weaning early. Creep feeders are being put out to supplement the calves. Feeding hay will start early. No moisture to plant cover crops or crop aftermath to germinate. McHenry: Severely Dry. Moisture has been hit and miss all year and with extreme temperatures some area are in dire straits. Poor to scarce hay crop and conditions have been hard on the corn and soybean crops. There are producers feeding hay out in their pastures. Some producers have pulled animals out of pastures that no longer have adequate water supplies. Looking for other feed stuffs. 3: North-East Pembina: Severely Dry. Deep cracks in most fields. Cattle guys are starting to bring cattle in because pastures are bare. 4: West Mercer: Severely Dry. No rain last month. Temp above 90F for many days. Corn, sunflowers, soybeans are greatly affected by dry conditions cob, pods and heads are not filling, at least to this point a 30 to 40% reduction in yield. No regrowth occurring if not on a rotational grazing system, pasture greatly showing drought impact. Dunn. Moderately Dry. Lack of Rain, dry vegetation has high fire danger. Pasture and Range are dry and being used up. 5: Central Eddy: Moderately Dry. Has not rained in nearly 2 months in the majority of Eddy County. The very Eastern end of the county received its last rain well over a month ago. We started the spring with a moisture shortage stemming from last year and received just enough moisture during the first part of the growing season to keep the early crops looking good. When the rain stopped the beginning of July, things went backwards quickly. With the hot conditions and great demand for moisture from a maturing crop there is no soil moisture left. Corn is being chopped over a month sooner than normal. Many soybean fields have lost their leaves. Some corn fields will be close to harvest moisture in the next week or two if there is anything worth combining. Lawns are brown and some producers are considering starting to feed hay. Pastures are brown. No regrowth has taken place after cattle removed over a month ago. 6: East-Central Griggs: Moderately Dry. 7: South-West Slope: Moderately Dry. 8: South-Central 9: South-East McIntosh: Mildly Dry. Logan: Moderately Dry. LaMoure. Moderately Dry. We've received a small amount of rain this week but it’s not enough to help much.

17 Agricultural Impacts (Select Photos)
A pond in McHenry County with blue- green algae (R. Wald, NDSU) Hettinger County (D. Marxen, NDSU)


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