1. Common Data Committee:
Population Projections Data Updates
Emily Harris, Demographic Analyst
10/19/2018

2. Introductions Demographic Analyst
State and County Population Estimates (UPC)
Methodological Developments
Data Wrangling
Population Projections Work
Demographic Research (Migration and Fertility)
Our Institute
The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah prepares economic, demographic and public policy research that helps Utah prosper. We are Utah’s demographic experts, leaders on the Utah economy, and specialists on public policy and survey research.

3. Presentation Utah Demographic and Economic Model (UDEM) Updates
Utah Population Committee Estimates
Fertility Updates
Employment Updates
Utah Demographic and Economic Model Technical Manual
What were the impacts of the updates?
How does public school enrollment compare to UDEM’s school age population estimates?

4. Utah’s Components of Population Change
Historic Context:
Utah’s Components of Population Change

5. 2017 State and County Demographic and Economic Projections
Last year we released our state and county projections to 2065.
It was great.
We were able to supply the relevant output to the Common Data Committee

6. Current Updates Made to Population Projects
2018 UDEM Updates
2017 UPC Estimates
Fertility
Employ-
ment

7. 1) Utah Population Committee 2017 Estimates Update
Current Updates Made to Population Projects
1) Utah Population Committee 2017 Estimates Update
2017 UDEM Projection and UPC Estimate Comparison
2017 UDEM
2017 UPC
Difference
% Difference
Total Population
3,123,607
3,114,039
-9,568
-0.3%
Total Births
53,382
49,502
-3,880
-7.3%
Total Deaths
17,541
17,446
-95
-0.5%
Total Net Migration
32,960
26,989
-5,971
-18.1%

8. 2) Fertility and Births Updates
Current Updates Made to Population Projects
2) Fertility and Births Updates
Fertility assumptions in the model were more optimistic than UPC’s births trend
The TFRs calculated in UDEM based on total births, declined from in to in 2017.

9. Current Updates Made to Population Projects
3) Jobs/Employment
Updated DWS employment estimates
New estimates translated into updated employment projections
Revenue Assumptions Working Group input
What were the major changing counties?

10. New UDEM Model Documentation
What were the major changing counties?

11. How do the new updates impact the School Age Population projections?
Year
2017 UDEM
2018 UDEM
Abs Diff
% Diff
2017
684,631
683,076
-1,555
-0.23%
2018
693,269
690,561
-2,708
-0.39%
2019
699,962
696,263
-3,699
-0.53%
2020
705,631
701,398
-4,232
-0.60%

12. How do the new updates impact the
Total Population and Net Migration projections?

13. How does Public School Enrollment compare to
School Age Population Estimates?

14. How does Public School Enrollment compare to
School Age Population Estimates?