1. 21th Annual Southern California Tourism Outlook Conference CIC Research, Inc. 8361 Vickers St. San Diego, CA 92111 858-637-4000 www.cicresearch.com Pasadena Convention Center October 30, 2009

2. 2 2008 - 2009 The Perfect Storm

3. 3 September 15, 2008

4. 4

5. The Stock Market Meltdown 5 2008 Dow down 34% by the end of 2008

6. 6 Business Bankruptcies and Bailouts

7. 7 Businesses Closed

8. 8 Layoffs - Unemployment

9. Fearful Overseas Travelers 9

10. Lodging Industry Challenged 10

11. 11 And Tourism Goes On Sale?

12. 12 When Will Tourism Recover?

13. 13 It Will Be A Long Slow Climb

14. Southern California Perspective 14

15. Southern California Perspective  23.4 Mil. people in Southern California  About 7.5 Mil. households  More than 9.8 Mil. employees  Estimated 301,000 hotel and motel rooms  Southern California: 23.4 million of 38.3 million CA population (61%) 9.8 million of 16.2 million CA employees (61%) 15

16. Who Is A Visitor?  Economic Base Definition  A Visitor Is: - Not a resident of SoCal (stay less than 6 months) - Not here for daily employment - Not a student 16

17. 2009 SoCal Hotel Room Inventory  301,000 Rooms  109.9 Mil. Room Nights Avail.  60.6% Occ. Rate  66.6 Mil. Room Nights Sold Sources: CIC Research, LACVB, AOCVCB, SDCVB, & STR. 17 Rooms

18. SoCal Hotel Rooms Sold Sources: CIC Research, LACVB, AOCVCB, SDCVB, & STR. 18 Millions of Room Nights No change 2005 - 2007?

19. SoCal Hotel Room Revenue Sources: CIC Research, LACVB, AOCVCB, SDCVB, & STR. 19 $ Billions Peak in 2007

20. International Visitors to the U.S. Millions Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, OTTI, October 2009. 20

21. SoCal Ports of Entry- All Overseas Visitor Arrivals Millions Source: CIC Research & Dept. of Homeland Security 21

22. SoCal Ports of Entry - Japan Millions Source: CIC Research & U.S. Dept. of Homeland Security 22

23. SoCal Ports of Entry - U.K. Millions Source: CIC Research & U.S. Dept. of Homeland Security 23

24. Overnight Visitors to SoCal 24

25. Domestic Overnight Visitors to SoCal Millions 25 Source: CIC Research, Inc.

26. SoCal Overnight International Visitors Millions 26 Source: CIC Research, Inc.

27. Total Overnight Visitors to SoCal 27 Source: CIC Research, Inc.

28. Total SoCal Overnight Visitor Spending 28 Source: CIC Research, Inc.

29. SoCal Overnight Visitor Forecast (2009-2010)  Visitors 43.9 M (2009 Preliminary)Down (-6%) 43.6 - 44.4 M (2010 Forecast)Modest(-0.5% to 1%)  International Visitors 5.6 M (2009 Preliminary)Down (-8%) 5.7 - 5.9 M (2010 Forecast)Up (3% to 5%)  Domestic Visitors 38.3 M (2009 Preliminary)Down (-6%) 38.0 - 38.5 M (2010 Forecast)Flat (-0.5% to 0.5%)  Spending $24.5 B (2009 Preliminary)Down (-12%) $24.7 - $25.4 B (Forecast 2009)Modest (1% to 3%) 29

30. 30 Can SoCal Tourism Weather the Storm?