1. 20th India Power Forum 2017 “Sustainability of Power Business – Paradigm Shift for 24x7 Power for All”
Session I: Power Generation Scenario by 2022 :
Business Case of Decommissioning Thermal Power Plants and their Replacement with Efficient and Cleaner Units
Anup Bhargava
Executive Director, Jindal Steel & Power Limited

2. Yearly Capacity Additions in Thermal Power in India (MW)
India has witnessed an increasing trend in thermal capacity addition with a few dips, however, the future forecasts show that there will be a downward trend in yearly additions
Capacity Addition Trend
Yearly Capacity Additions in Thermal Power in India (MW)
71,982
75,292
79,637
91,132
103,140
120,551
138,016
154,171
175,106
194,400
Total
Capacity has more than doubled from 2010 to Mar 2017
The under construction capacity is estimated at 53,000 which will come in the next 4 years – that gives us ~12,000MW/Year addition capacity on an average – much lower than previous years
Source: Avalon Consulting Research and Analysis, Interactions with suppliers, TPPs, power associations

3. JSPL Business Overview Current Capacities – Domestic & Global
Power
Mines & Minerals
Global Ventures
Construction Material & Solution
Steel
Current Capacities – Domestic & Global
6.1 MTPA Steel*
3.11 MTPA*
Iron ore
IPP – 3400 MW**
CPP – 1634 MW
2 MTPA Steel
Coal Mines
Cement
Road solutions
LGS
Domestic
** 1000 MW Divestment announced 3

4. A dominant share of capacity (~140,000 MW ~72%) is <17 years old accounting for 350 units whereas ~38,900 MW (20%) is >25 years old and is reàdy to decommissioned
Unit Age Wise Share of Existing Thermal Power Capacity
Thermal Power Capacity Breakup by Unit Age (MW)
Thermal Power Capacity Breakup by Unit Age (No. of units)
Comments
The biggest and most important age segment is > 17 year old plants that can be phased out from
These account for over 54,400 MW capacity in India
Around 38,900 MW is over 25 years old – these plants do not have much life left, expensive to upgrade and comply to new Emission norms.
Total = 194,400 MW
Total = 674 units
The total Decommissioning of Thermal Plants from an age perspective (>17 years old) is estimated at ~ 54,400 MW across 323 units, can be phased out from 2018 to 2021
Note: The existing market capacity is as of 31/07/2016 and April 2017 Report
Source: CEA

5. India’s total thermal Capacity breakup by ownership and size (in MW)
Plant capacity / unit spread across Utility Companies ( Public/State and Private Sector ) :: Target Market > 25 yrs
Unit ownership wise break up ( Current Figures may slightly vary as data collected from a research report published a few days back)
India’s total thermal Capacity breakup by ownership and size (in MW)
India’s total thermal Capacity breakup by ownership and size (in no. of units)
Comments
> 25yrs Plant
- Central ( NTPC/DVC/NLC) = 37%
- State Sector = 58%
Average Net Station HR = 2,944 Kcal/kwhr, ( 8.8%, 60% PLF)
New 800 MW Supercritical
Net SHR = 2,100 kcal/kwh
Central and State Sector is the target market for decommissioning and then replacement with new technology
Total = 194,400 MW
Total = 674 units
350
233
451
231
287
Average
Central Sector and State Gencos ( 39,000 MW , > 25 yrs) is the Target Market for Decommissioning
Source: Avalon Consulting Research and Analysis, CEA

6. Target Power Stations (Thermal) Advantages of replacement
Business Case of Decommissioning Thermal Power Plants and their Replacement with Efficient and Cleaner Units
Business Case
Target Power Stations (Thermal)
Advantages of replacement
Other Parameters
Stage I : Phasing out > 25 yrs Power plant ( Approx Units, 38,900 MW)
Stage II : Phasing Out yrs Power Plants ( Approx. 74 units, 15,500 MW)
Phasing out units where FGD Cannot be installed ( Approx. 16,600 MW)
Summary
Total Expected Decommissioning Opportunity 71,000 MW -> Rs 2,700 Cr
Expected capacity addition in Thermal to be 5% YOY (NEP)
New Unit 50,000 MW
~ Rs 250,000 Cr
Reduction in Tariff by replacing older units to New Supercritical units – 10%
Emission Reduction, including CO2, Sox, Nox as per new norms for plant after Jan 2017 Reduction in customer (Discom Tariff), due to removal of fix costs for these decommissioned power stations – Expected Rs 1/unit
Steel Scrap Availability 13 Million MT
Ash Generation reduction by 25%
Salvage value of a typical 4x120 MW PS ~Rs 130 Cr
Coal will remain primary energy, which was 55% in and is expected to remain high at 48-54% by 2040
Reduction in customer (Discom Tariff), due to removal of fix costs for these decommissioned power stations – Expected Rs 1/unit
Stranded Capacity ~ Approx 50,000 MW
For Decommissioning 71,000 MW -> Scrap Value – Rs 19,200 Cr
FSA Transfer
Retrofit – Rs 1.5cr / MW
Indian Power Sector revival and COP21 Compliance largely depend on Decommissioning & Replacement of Older Power Stations

7. Advantages of replacement
Business Case of Decommissioning Thermal Power Plants and their Replacement with Efficient and Cleaner Units (Simulation)
Business Case
Business Case
Advantages of replacement
Conclusion
Replacement of 4x110 MW or 2x210 MW by 1x 800 MW
Distribution Tariff : Less by 13-15%
Generation Tariff : FC Less by 50%
: VC Less by 10% (due to 10% reduced coal + 10% increased O&M and 100% increased output)
Ash Reduction : Less by 12%
CO2 reduction : Less by 12%
SOx reduction : Less by 80-90% (considering present level of 1200/1400 to be reduced to 100 mg/Nm3)
NOx Reduction : Less by 80-90% (considering present level of 600/500 to be reduced to 100 mg/Nm3)
Water Consumption : Less by 35-40% (considering present level of 4.5/4.0 to be reduced to 2.5 m3/Mwh)
COP 21 Emission Compliance by 2021/22 by India by decommissioning and replacement of old units
Flexible Power Generation, with newer plant for < 30% turndown
Effective use of coal -> reduction of 80 T/MW
We recommend decommissioning of > 17 yrs units to new 800 MW supercritical units

8. Thanks