1. DTM, Population Pyramids, and the ETM: AP Exam Review
AP Human Geography
AP Exam Review Unit

3. Stage 1: Low Growth NI Rate = 0 Hunting and gathering societies
Little to no elements of culture
No economic or political systems

4. Stage 2: Rapid Growth DR drops drastically
BR remains same as Stage 1 (high)
Population explosion
Highest NIR of all stages
Many countries entered this stage as a result of the Industrial Revolution after 1750.
Today: many African countries in this stage: unavailability of healthcare/contraceptives, role of children. Huge dependency ratio for youth services.

5. Stage 3: Moderate Growth
BR begins to drop sharply
DR still falls, but slower than in Stage 2
Europe and N. America entered this stage first half of 20th century due to effects of IR and 2nd Ag Rev.
Most Asian and Latin American countries entered this stage recently: healthcare and contraceptives more widespread, women in workforce and schools

6. Stage 4: Little/No Growth
BR and DR are virtually equal
NIR is zero
ZPG
Women are productive members of the country’s economy and involved in the political process. TFR is around 2. Gender inequality is less prominent. Women have access to a variety of contraceptives.

7. Stage 5: Negative Growth
DR is consistently higher than BR
Population is getting older and smaller
Japan, Russia, Germany, Greece,

8. 4

9. Big Picture Comparisons
Rostow’s Model
Traditional Society * Stage 1-2 of DTM
Preconditions for Takeoff * Stage 2 of DTM
Takeoff * Stage 2-3 of DTM
Drive to Maturity * Stage of DTM
Mass Consumption * Stage 4-5 of DTM
BRICs and NICs
Stage 3-4 of DTM
Semi-periphery
Wallerstein’s Model
Core * Stage 4-5 of DTM
Semi-Periphery * Stage 3-4 of DTM
Periphery * Stage 2 of DTM

10. Epidemiologic Transition Model
Focuses on distinctive causes of deaths in each stage of the DTM
Epidemiology: incidence, distribution, and control of diseases that affect large numbers of people

11. ET Stage 1: Pestilence and Famine
Diffusion of the Black Plague
High CDR
Infectious and parasitic diseases are principal causes of human deaths
Most violent: Black Plague

12. ET Stage 2: Receding Pandemics
Rapidly declining CDR
Pandemic: disease over a wide area and affects a high proportion of population
Most violent: cholera
Dr. John Snow’s Cholera Map, London, 1854
IR Cholera Deaths
½ million in NYC in 1832
1/8 of Cairo in 1831

13. ET Stage 3: Degenerative Diseases
Moderately declining CDR
Increase in chronic disorders associated with aging
Most violent: cardiovascular diseases, various cancers
Sharp drop in infectious diseases:
Polio
Measles

14. ET Stage 4: Delayed Degenerative Diseases
Low, but increasing CDR
Life expectancy increased due to medical advances

15. ET Stage 5? Reemerging Infectious Diseaeses
A possible 5th stage due to:
(1) Evolution of diseases: antibiotics and GE lead to new strains of viruses and bacteria
(2) Poverty: diseases like TB controlled in MDCs but not in LDCs
(3) Increased connections: cars, planes, trains  H1NI (swine), SARS

16. Disease and Terrorism? Post 9/11/01, fear of smallpox
Last epidemic in U.S. in 1947
20 cases in Oklahoma
1 million deaths within 3 months in 3 states
U.S. vaccinations in 1947 (last reported case)
Last reported global case in 1977
Somalia

17. AIDS (Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome)
Caused by HIV
1980: 200,000
1990: 8,000,000
2001: 40,000,000
Impacts sub-Sahara Africa the most
11% of population; 70% of reported cases
Crude death rates increased
Botswana: Life expectancy declined from mid-50s during 80s to under 40 in the 90s and now up to 54 (2014)