1. RSA Insight Report: Supporting Slides
Inverness and Highlands City Region Deal
comprising Highland
Evidence Base Team
Glasgow

2. Contents Explanation of Thermometer Chart
1. The Inverness and Highlands City Region Deal
Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by City Deal Region 2015
Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by RSA Local Authority 2015
Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base (2016)
Proportions of Businesses by Size Band (2016)
Business Births and Deaths per ( ) and Business survival index ( )
Resident and Workplace Based Earnings 2016 (Median)
Inverness and Highlands City Region Deal local authorities out commuting proportions by occupational grouping (SOC1)
Deprivation Inverness and Highlands City Region Deal by SIMD (2016) Deciles1 1-10
Population projections change by age band 2014 – 2039
Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by City Deal Region
Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Local Authority
School Leavers Destinations 2009/10 and 2015/16

3. 2. Demand for Inverness and Highlands City Region Deal
Total Employment Projections (jobs) ( )
Total Employment (jobs) Projections by Status and Gender
Inverness and Highland City Region Deal Occupation Structure 2000 and 2017 (people 000s)
Total employment (people 000s) by occupation 2017 and 2027
Proportion of occupations at top middle and bottom of labour market 2027
Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (people 000s) Inverness and Highlands City Region Deal
Proportion of total requirement at top middle and bottom of labour market
Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector 2017 and 2027
Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs 000s) Inverness and Highlands City Region Deal
Total employment (jobs 000s) by key sector 2017 and 2027
Total Employment by qualification (000s) Inverness and Highlands City Region Deal 2017 and 2027
Total Requirement by qualification (people 000s) Inverness and Highlands City Region Deal

4. Explanation of thermometer/bullet chart
Although most people are familiar with a grouped bar chart:...
... a thermometer (or bullet) chart shows both bars in one enabling more space to be used which is more practical when dealing with more cluttered charts showing 2 digit SIC and SOC for example.
The figures are the ‘thermometer’ and the 2027 figures act as the ‘mercury’. This enables a comparison to be made as to whether there has been a rise or fall compared with the 2017 baseline. And example is given below:
2027 figures less than 2017
2016 figure
2017
2024 figure
2027 figures more than 2017
2027

5. 1. The Inverness and Highland City Region Deal

6. Figure 2.1: Distribution of GVA (£million, constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job,) by City Deal Region, 2015
High GVA High Productivity
Low GVA High Productivity
Low GVA Low Productivity
High GVA Low Productivity
Source: Oxford Economics forecasts
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

7. Figure 2.2: Distribution of GVA (£million, constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job), by RSA Local Authority, 2015
High GVA High Productivity
Low GVA High Productivity
Low GVA Low Productivity
High GVA Low Productivity
Source: Oxford Economics forecasts
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

8. Table 2.1: Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base, (2016)
Inverness and Highland City Region Deal
Scotland
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
20%
10%
Production 6%
Construction
14%
11%
Motor trades 3%
Wholesale 2%
Retail 7% 8%
Transport & storage
Accommodation & food services
Information & communication
Financial & insurance 1%
Property
Professional, scientific & technical
13%
19%
Business admin & support
Public admin. & defence
<1%
Education
Health 4%
Arts, entertainment ,recreation, other
Total
10,840
171,905
Source: UK Business Counts

9. Table 2.2: Proportions of businesses by size band 2016
Inverness and Highland City Region Deal
Scotland
0-9
89%
88%
10-49 9%
10%
50-249 1% 2%
250+
<1%
Source: UK Business Counts

10. Figure 2.3: Business births and death per population ( ) and Business Survival Index ( )
Source: ONS Business Demography and Mid-Year Population Estimates
Note: data for Business Survival Rates only available for in Evidence Base.

11. Table 2.3: Resident and workplace based earnings 2016 (Median)
Area
Resident Earnings
Workplace Earnings
Difference between resident and workplace earnings
Highland
£423
£409
£14
Scottish Average
£434
£432 £2
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings. Figures based on weekly pay of all workers.

12. Table 2.4: Inverness and Highland City Region Deal local authorities out commuting proportions by occupational grouping (SOC1)
SOC 1-3
SOC 4-6
SOC 7-9
Highland
55%
23%
22%
Source: Origin Destination statistics by Local Authority open access (WB07BUK_la) UK Data Service
Note: denominator = total trips out of the local authority
1 See SOC Codes for Inverness and Highland City Region Deal here:

13. Figure 2.5: Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by City Deal Region
High Unemployment High Inactivity
Low Unemployment High Inactivity
High Unemployment Low Inactivity
Low Unemployment Low Inactivity
Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based)
Note: the data is scaled and thus the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

14. Figure 2.6: Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Local Authority
Low Unemployment High Inactivity
High Unemployment High Inactivity
High Unemployment Low Inactivity
Low Unemployment Low Inactivity
Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based)
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

15. Figure 2.7: Deprivation in Inverness and Highland City Region Deal by SIMD (2016) Deciles2 1-10
Source: Scottish Government 2016
2 See SIMD interactive map here:

16. Table 2.5: Population projections change by age band, 2014 – 2039
0 -15
16-29
30-49
50-64
65-74
75+
Total
Inverness and Highland City Region Deal
-6%
-11%
-8%
-16%
19%
105% 3%
Scotland 1%
-2%
27%
85% 7%
Source: National Records of Scotland.

17. Table 2.6: School Leavers’ Destinations, 2009/10 and 2015/16
Inverness and Highland City Region Deal
Scotland
Higher education (%)
2009/10
32%
34%
2015/16
37%
Change 2% 3%
Further education (%)
21%
24%
19%
22%
-2%
Employment (%)
31%
23%
29% 6%
Unemployment (%) *
13%
14% 5% 8%
-8%
-6%
Unemployment Seeking and Unemployment Not Seeking.
Source: Scottish Government School Leavers Destination Dataset

18. 2. Demand for Skills in Inverness and Highland City Region Deal

19. Figure 3.1: Total Employment Projections (jobs), 2000-2027
Source: Oxford Economics

20. Figure 3.2: Total Employment (jobs) projections 2000-2027, by status and gender  
Source: Oxford Economics

21. Figure 3.3: Inverness and Highland City Region Deal Occupational Structure, 2000 and 2017 (people, 000s)
Source: Oxford Economics

22. Figure 3.4: Total employment (people, 000s) by occupation, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Figures for 2027 only

23. Inverness and Highland City Region Deal
Table 3.1: Proportion of occupations at top, middle and bottom of labour market, 2027
Inverness and Highland City Region Deal
Higher level jobs
37%
Middle level jobs
38%
Lower level jobs
25%
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are categorised as follows: Higher level – SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC codes 4 to 6; and Lower level – SOC codes 7 to 9

24. Table 3.2: Expansion demand, replacement demand and total requirement (people, 000s), Inverness and Highland City Region Deal,
Occupation
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Managers directors & senior officials
0.1
2.3
2.4
Professional occupations
8.9
9.0
Associate professional & technical occupations
1.9
2.0
Administrative & secretarial occupations
-0.2
3.6
3.5
Skilled trades occupations
0.4
6.8
7.2
Caring leisure & other service occupations
3.2
Sales & customer service occupations
-0.3
4.6
4.4
Process plant & machine operatives
-0.1
1.2
1.1
Elementary occupations
0.2
9.8
10.0
Total
0.8
42.3
43.1
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data.

25. Inverness and Highland City Region Deal
Table 3.3: Proportion of total requirement at top, middle and bottom of labour market,
Inverness and Highland City Region Deal
Higher level jobs
31%
Middle level jobs
33%
Lower level jobs
36%
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are categorised as follows: Higher level – SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC codes 4 to 6; and Lower level – SOC codes 7 to 9

26. Figure 3.5: Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Figures for 2027 only

27. Table 3.4: Expansion demand, replacement demand and total requirement (jobs, 000s), Inverness and Highland City Region Deal,
Sector
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Agriculture ,forestry and fishing
-0.1
2.5
2.4
Mining and quarrying
0.1
0.0
Manufacturing
-0.7
1.3
0.6
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning
0.2
Water supply sewerage waste management
-0.2
2.2
2.0
Construction
1.4
2.7
4.2
Wholesale and retail trade
-0.3
9.8
9.5
Transport and storage
4.4
4.5
Accommodation and food services
0.5
7.2
7.8
Information and communication
0.3
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional, scientific and technical
1.1
Admin. and support services
0.8
3.3
4.1
Public admin. and defence
-0.8
2.3
1.5
Education
-0.4
3.1
Human health and social work
5.4
5.9
Arts ,entertainment and recreation
0.4
2.8
3.2
Other service activities
Total
47.3
49.8
Source: Oxford Economics

28. Figure 3.6: Total employment (jobs, 000s) by key sector, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Figures for 2027 only

29. Table 3.5 Expansion demand, replacement demand and total requirement (jobs, 000s), Inverness and Highland City Region Deal,
Key Sector
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Chemical sciences
-0.1
0.2
0.1
Creative industries
0.4
0.6
0.9
Construction
1.5
3.1
4.6
Energy
1.9
1.8
Engineering
0.3
Food and drink
-0.2
2.7
2.5
Financial and business services
1.3
Health and social care
0.5
5.4
5.9
ICT/digital
0.0
Life sciences
Tourism
0.7
8.5
9.2
Total
3.6
23.5
27.2
Source: Oxford Economics

30. Figure 3.7: Employment by qualification (people, 000s) Inverness and Highlands City Region Deal, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Figures for 2027 only

31. Table 3.6: Total Requirement by qualification (people, 000s), Inverness and Highland City Region Deal,
Qualification
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
SCQF
0.4
1.6
2.0
SCQF
1.4
17.2
18.7
SCQF 6
-0.7
6.9
6.2
SCQF 5
0.2
10.8
11.0
SCQF 1-4
-0.6
2.5
1.9
No Qualifications
-0.1
3.3
3.2
Total
0.8
42.3
43.1
Source: Oxford Economics. Note: Figures for 2027 only