1. RailPro Summit, October 2016
European rail business in a global environment: today’s context and tomorrow’s growth
RailPro Summit, October 2016
Lorenzo Casullo

2. International Transport Forum
Better dialogue for better transport

3. Intergovernmental Organisation
57 member countries (23 non-OECD)
Administratively integrated with OECD
Only global transport body with a mandate for all modes

5. The Annual Summit
Held in Germany, Ministers of Transport meet every year
Business leaders, civil society, international organisations, and the research community participate
Outputs help advance and guide transport policy for 21st Century

6. Think Tank Research and Policy Analysis Modelling and Statistics
Corporate Partnership Board

7. European rail in context
A stable picture with marginal changes

8. Rail passenger volumes (2013)
Rail freight volumes (2013)
Passenger modal share ( )
Freight modal share ( )

9. Rail investment trends
Area
Cumulative investment (€bn)
2013 vs 2003
EU28
412
-3%
Japan 93
+22%
USA 80
+63%
Russia 76
+203%

10. Opportunities for growth
Two examples: competition and international corridors

11. On-track competition is developing
The past: failed attempts to compete with incumbents
The British exception – longstanding but limited open access
Since , new entrants in:
Austria – WESTbahn v. OBB
Czech Republic – RegioJet v. Leo Express v. CD
Italy – NTV v. Trenitalia
Equilibrium market shares of 20-35% on key corridors, downward pressure on prices and technological innovation

12. Is competition leading to traffic growth?
Before competition
After competition

13. International freight in tonne-kilometers by corridor: 2010, 2030, 2050

14. Eurasian rail corridors: potential growth
Main shift from sea (16%)
Equivalent to +10% rail volumes globally by 2050
Associated reductions in road volumes
+150% rail volumes in corridor routes and their feeders
Corridor growth would lead to +0.3% freight trade globally
Two main routes were tested with two potential transfer links in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan
Improve the links to solve interoperability (gauge) and border crossing issues  Reduce 50% lost time
Improve average commercial speed of the network to 60 km/h
Travel time: Munich->Shanghai: Reduce from 4 to 2 weeks
Greatest impacts: manufacturing, mining, electronic devices

15. Lorenzo CASULLO T +33 (0)1 45 24 13 30 E lorenzo.casullo@itf-oecd.org
Thank you
Lorenzo CASULLO T +33 (0) E
Lorenzo CASULLO