1. VOCAL Scotland/SPORTA Scotland Seminar
Culture, Leisure and a Sustainable Future
Colin Mair, Chief Executive, Improvement Service

2. Looking Forward
Budget scenarios clearer: Block Grant falls for each year to 2020/21
Fiscal receipts grow below UK level so negative Barnet adjustment
Major growth commitments: £500 million real growth for NHS; 30 hours pre-school per week circa £500 million; protection against inflation for Police budget
Over 55% of Scottish Budget so….
Local government: around 3% per annum reduction to 2020; ring-fenced additional support for deprivation in schools and social care; 3% Council Tax increase permitted (0.7%)

3. Population Projections for Scotland
Population Projections 2014-based
Scotland (000s)
2014
2024
2034
2039
Total % Change
All Ages
5,348
5,514
5,659
5,701
6.6%
0-15
911
931
929
924
1.4%
16-29
976
889
900
902
-7.6%
30-44
1,019
1,085
1,051
1,010 0%
45-59
1,157
1,065
1,012
1,078
-6.8%
60-74
851
987
1,059
984
15.6%
75+
433
557
707
803
85.5%
85+
114
154
231
264
131.6%
Source: National Records of Scotland

4. Local Authority Projections, ages 85 and over
Population Projections 2012-based, 85+
(000s)
2012
2017
2027
2037
Total % Change
Orkney Islands
0.5
0.6
1.1
1.6
216%
Highland
5.2
6.4
9.7
15.5
199%
Dundee
3.3
3.7
4.6
6.1
85%
Perth & Kinross
4.0
5.0
7.2
10.7
164%
North Lanarkshire
6.0
9.4
13.9
180%
Glasgow
10.4
11.4
13.5
17.3
66%
Midlothian
1.5
1.9 3
4.8
210%
Scotland
109.2
129.2
184.6
274.5
151%
Thursday, 06 September 2018Thursday, 06 September 2018

5. Focus on Outcomes
CES: improving outcomes; reducing inequalities; LOIPs
Enterprise Review: “inclusive economic growth”
Children’s Act and NIF: attainment, achievement and wellbeing
Public Health Review: population health improvement: reducing inequalities
National Cultural Strategy

6. Responses Hard focus on priority outcomes: “place” and community focus
Shared services and shared capacity: Roads; Trading Standards; Environmental Health; Scientific Services, etc.
Regional models and incentives: Education; Enterprise and Skills; NHS reform; Review of Local Government; Growth Deals
Community empowerment: engaging and mobilising community resources
Maximising local income: fees and charges greater than Council Tax income

7. Public Investment in Culture, Sports and Leisure
Market failure: supply in rural or deprived urban contexts
Redistribution: equalising opportunity
Link to key outcomes

8. Economic development and employability Culture and Leisure
Health and Wellbeing
Economic development and employability
Culture and
Leisure
Community Safety
Learning, growth and development

9. Positioning Lead and “value adding” role(s) with respect to outcomes
Direct and advisory/support roles
Evidence of contribution and impact
Credibility of “offer”: capacity to make “offer” (e.g. pupil equity funding; attainment fund; social care, etc.)

10. So….Leisure and Culture
Downward pressure on council funding so….
Targeted funding: selective focus on priority households, communities and places
Optimising earned income: external income: targets
Transfer of service, assets and staff to independent Trust
Aggregation/grouping of Trusts: corporate group model
Exploiting multiple sources of funding: CPP
Reintegration as core public services

11. Key Questions
Is the current council/ALEO relationship the way forward?
If not, incremental or transformation shift?
Are there too many services/trusts? Alternatives?
Are we secure about our impact on outcomes? Our role in supporting outcomes?
Universal and/or selective focus?
Are our “offers” clear and understood by others? Is our market adequately developed?