1. Sustaining and Developing Community Resilience Scottish Futures Forum: 25 th January 2010 Budgetary Scenario 2010-15: Threat or Opportunity Colin Mair, CEO, Improvement Service

2. Scope Future pressures The outcome focus Community resilience and capacity in context Going forward

3. Scottish Block Finance & Demand 2010/11 – 2013/14 (% real terms)

4. Growth Forecast 3.25% per annum 2011/12 - 2013/14 ½% above average 2000 - 2007 70% of growth from private consumption Unemployment; real wages; credit conditions; house values; public sector retrenchment 1% forecast error = £10 billion off public spending

5. Demography Headline Projections Scotlands 65+ population projected to rise by 21% between 2006 – 2016 By 2031 it will have risen by 62% For the 85+ age group specifically, a 38% rise is projected for 2016 By 2031, the increase is 144% The dependency ratio sharply increases: 20% by 2020

6. Demand Projections Services for older people: 2% real growth to stand still (Kings fund; Sutherland review) Services for children: policy priorities & increased spend on children with learning support needs/special needs: 3 – 4% per annum Impacts of recession: education; social work; policing & community safety; business support; housing; leisure, etc Overall 2% real terms per annum

7. Scottish Block Finance & Demand 2009/10 – 2017/18 (% real terms)

8. Implications Our current pattern of services and spending are unsustainable against future finance and demand The historic pattern failed those with the highest need The overarching commitments to early intervention; equally well and anti-poverty challenge historic service models anyway We need to fundamentally rethink how we deliver and what we are delivering

9. Long-Term Strategic Issues Improved outcomes while minimising demand and cost, therefore Prevention: Early intervention; co-production and communal capacity Fundamentally rethinking entitlements, business models and resource consumption PSR: Rationalisation and integration at local level

10. The National Performance Framework in Scotland Purpose: Sustainable economic development Strategic objectives: Healthier, wealthier, fairer, smarter, greener National outcomes: 15 derived from purpose and objectives SOA: Priority local outcomes given context, circumstances and national outcomes

11. What Do We Mean By Outcomes? The quality of life of individuals, households and communities The opportunities in life of individuals, households and communities The living context of individuals, households and communities The why of public service provision

12. Developing The Outcome Focus We cant do outcomes to people Past patterns of success and failure in health, education and community safety reflect tacit dependence and frustration of co-production We need to invest in peoples ability to co-produce This may result in redefining the boundaries of the state and individual and community rights and responsibilities

13. 4 Propositions Communal capacity and confidence underpins all other outcomes Public service monopoly approaches to wellbeing issues do not work Social capital mobilisation will become progressively more important as public spending declines Community empowerment = Economic and social equalisation (not simply tools and methodologies)

14. The New Culture Self sufficiency……………..interdependency Service focussed…………..outcome focussed Fragmented…………………integrated Agency focus……………….customer focus Government capacity………community capacity

15. Going Forwards Spending Review; budgeting and core business Protecting fragile flowers: Retrenchment and public values Moving from initiatives to core management approach Removing negative demand by focussing on outcomes