1. Latino Participation and Partisanship
Latinos and the 2008 Elections
Lecture 5
October 14, 2008

2. Questions for Week 2 Readings
What are the barriers to Latino electoral participation?
How can these be overcome?
How can Latino communities organize to overcome these barriers?
How can electoral and party institutions be changed to increase the likelihood of Latino voting?

3. Who Votes?
(and why)?

4. White, Black, Latino, and Asian American Turnout, 2004
Turnout (among adults)
Turnout (among citizen adults)
Non-Hispanic White
65.8%
67.2%
Non-Hispanic Black
56.3%
60.0%
Latino
28.0%
47.2%
Asian Pacific Islander
30.7%
44.6%

5. Why the Gap? Demographic/compositional factors
Citizenship
Age
Education
Income
Mobilization/leadership/networks
People respond to being asked to participate
Institutions must be in place to ask
Individuals in networks more likely to be asked
Political factors drive whether resources will be invested

6. Which of these Will Come into Play in 2008?
Compositional factors will drive lower Latino participation for the foreseeable future
Civic networks are weaker in Latino communities
Unions playing a new role
Latino organization led mobilization effort – Ya Es Hora
Several states competitive, so will see extensive outreach
Florida
New Mexico
Colorado
Nevada
New naturalized citizens will add to citizen adult population, but will need mobilization to join electorate

7. Latino Turnout 1992-2004 Latino Adults (,000) Latino Voters (,000)
Citizen Turnout %
1992
14,688
4,238
28.9
48.3
1996
18,426
4,928
26.7
44.0
2000
21,598
5,934
27.5
45.1
2004
27,129
7,587
28.0
47.2

8. Estimate for Latino Turnout – 2008
9,100,000

9. Biggest Debate in Media/Party Discussions of Latino Politics
Not, why don’t more Latinos vote, but
are Latinos becoming Republican or are Latinos a “swing” vote?

10. Argument Made by Republican Leaders
Latinos are self-professed conservatives
Latinos more likely than other Democrats
To oppose abortion and be socially conservative
To support the death penalty
Latinos more like to own small businesses
Bush has made personal inroads
1998 Texas gubernatorial campaign
Spanish-language ads in Iowa, 2000 Caucuses
Bush speaks Spanish

11. All Correct, but Misunderstand Latino Community
They are big government conservatives
Interesting research question – what does conservatism mean in Latino communities?
Social issues top agenda
Bush’s personal appeal to some Latinos not translated to Republicans
Exit polls of Latinos not too accurate
Ricochet pander
Clinton – “The last president not to speak Spanish”

12. Latino Partisanship, 1989 and 2008
Democrats
60%
65%
Republicans
19%
26%
Other
21% 9%

13. Latino Partisanship—Rule of Thumb
Going into a competitive election
Democrats have 60 percent of the Latino vote
Republicans have 20 percent
Remaining 20 percent up for grabs
In Florida, reverse the party names
This is a core of Latino influence
White vote more evenly divided (with a slight bias toward the Democrats in registration and Republicans in voting)
Black vote more partisan than Latino vote – 80/10 for the Democrats

14. Why? Historical connections between Democrats and non-Cuban Latinos
Partisanship transfers between parents and children
Latinos an urban population and Democrats strong in cities
Affinity of Latinos for issues core to Democratic party
Social service delivery
Immigrant incorporation
Overwhelming majority of local Latino elected officials are Democrats
When new Latino voters see a Latino leader, they see a Democrat

15. Did Bush Change the Story?
Not really
He was high in the range, but in the range
Polling errors have confused the story
Bush 2000 – percent of the Latino vote
My estimate 33 percent or so
Bush 2004 – percent of the Latino vote
My estimate high 30s
In both elections, polls initially showed Bush doing very well among Latinos

16. Some Change Did Appear Bush did well among
Texas Latinos
Religiously observant Latinos (both Catholic and Protestant), particularly in New Mexico
Second generation Latinos
Republican support declining among younger Cuban Americans in Florida

17. Will McCain Do As Well?
Media assertions that Latinos will not support a Black candidate
Little empirical evidence
To the extent that there is evidence (little), strongest evidence among naturalized citizen Latinos
McCain pays a price for (white) Republican intolerance on immigration/immigrant incorporation
Economic conditions also limit Latino interest in McCain
So, McCain will not do as well as Bush
Decline will include Cuban Americans in Florida

18. To Me
Question of partisanship obscures the larger and more important policy question of what can be done to increase turnout among Latino U.S. citizens
And, what can be done to increase the number of Latino immigrants naturalizing
A question for another day