1. BUSINESS DRIVEN TECHNOLOGY Emerging Trends and Technologies
Business Plug-In B8
Emerging Trends and Technologies

2. LEARNING OUTCOMES
Identify the trends that will have the greatest impact on future business
Identify the technologies that will have the greatest impact on future business
Explain why understanding trends and new technologies can help an organization prepare for the future

3. Introduction
Obtaining a broad view of emerging trends and new technologies as they relate to business can help an organization anticipate and prepare for the future
Organizations that can most effectively grasp the deep currents of technological evolution can use their knowledge to protect themselves against sudden and fatal technological obsolescence

4. Reasons to Watch Trends
Trend analysis – the examination of a trend to identify its nature, causes, speed of development, and potential impacts
Trend monitoring – trends viewed as particularly important in a specific community, industry, or sector are carefully monitored, watched, and reported to key decision makers
Trend projection – when numerical data is available a trend can be plotted on graph paper to display changes through time and into the future

5. Reasons to Watch Trends
Computer simulation – complex systems can be modeled by means of mathematical equations and different scenarios can be run against the model to determine “what if” analysis
Historical analysis – the study of historical events in order to anticipate the outcome of current developments

6. Reasons to Watch Trends
Top reasons organizations should study trends

7. Trends Shaping Our Future
The following trends have the potential to change our world, our future, and our lives:
World’s population will double in the next 40 years
Population in developed countries is living longer
Growth in information industries creates a knowledge-dependent global society
The global economy is becoming more integrated
The economy and society are dominated by technology
Pace of technological innovation is increasing
Time is becoming one of the most precious commodities

8. THE WORLD’S POPULATION WILL DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT 40 YEARS
Countries expected to have the largest population increases:
Palestinian Territory – 217% increase
Niger – 205%
Yemen – 168%
Angola – 162%
Democratic Republic of the Congo – 161%
Uganda – 133%

9. THE WORLD’S POPULATION WILL DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT 40 YEARS
In contrast, developed and industrialized countries are expected to see fertility rates decrease below population replacement levels, leading to significant declines in population

10. THE WORLD’S POPULATION WILL DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT 40 YEARS
Potential business impact
Global agriculture will be required to supply as much food as has been produced during all of human history to meet needs over the next 40 years
Developed nations will find that retirees will have to remain on the job to remain competitive
Developed nations will begin to increase immigration limits

11. POPULATION IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES IS LIVING LONGER
On average, each generation in the United States lives three years longer than the previous
An 80-year-old in 1950 could expect to live 6.5 years longer today

12. POPULATION IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES IS LIVING LONGER
Potential business impact
Global demand for elderly products and services will grow quickly in the coming decades
The cost of health care is destined to skyrocket
Pharmaceutical companies will be pushed for advances in geriatric medicine

13. 83% of American management personnel will be knowledge workers by 2005
THE GROWTH IN INFORMATION INDUSTRIES IS CREATING A KNOWLEDGE-DEPENDENT GLOBAL SOCIETY
83% of American management personnel will be knowledge workers by 2005
A typical large organization in 2010 will have fewer than half the management levels of its counterpart in 1990, and about 1/3 the number of managers

14. Potential business impact
THE GROWTH IN INFORMATION INDUSTRIES IS CREATING A KNOWLEDGE-DEPENDENT GLOBAL SOCIETY
Potential business impact
Top managers must be computer-literate to retain their jobs and achieve success
Knowledge workers are generally higher paid and their proliferation is increasing overall prosperity
Entry-level and unskilled positions are requiring a growing level of education
Information now flows from front-office workers to higher management for analysis
Downsizing, restructuring, reorganization, outsourcing, and layoffs will continue

15. THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS BECOMING MORE INTEGRATED
International outsourcing is on the rise
The European Union has relaxed its borders and capital controls
Internet users numbered about 500 million worldwide in 2003, Internet users are growing by 6% monthly

16. THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS BECOMING MORE INTEGRATED
India’s Internet Users Growth

17. THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS BECOMING MORE INTEGRATED
Potential business impact
Demand for personnel in distant countries will increase the need for foreign language training and employee incentives suited to other cultures
E-business and the Internet will reduce the cost of doing business
The Internet will allow small companies to compete with worldwide giants with relatively little investment

18. THE ECONOMY AND SOCIETY ARE DOMINATED BY TECHNOLOGY
Computers are becoming a part of our environment
By 2007, artificial intelligence and expert systems will help most companies and government agencies assimilate data and solve problems beyond the range of today’s computers
Personal robots will appear in the home by 2010

19. THE ECONOMY AND SOCIETY ARE DOMINATED BY TECHNOLOGY
Potential business impact
New technologies provide dozens of new opportunities to create businesses and jobs
Automation will continue to decrease the cost of products and services, making it possible to reduce prices while improving profits
Demand for scientists, engineers, and technicians will continue to grow

20. PACE OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION IS INCREASING
Medical knowledge is doubling every eight years
50% of what students learn in their freshman year of college is obsolete, revised, or taken for granted by their senior year
All of today’s technical knowledge will represent only 1 percent of the knowledge that will be available in 2050

21. PACE OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION IS INCREASING
Potential business impact
Shortened time-to-market for products and services
Tighter competition based on new technologies

22. TIME IS BECOMING ONE OF THE WORLD’S MOST PRECIOUS COMMODITIES
U.S. workers spend 10% more time on the job than they did a decade ago
European executives and nonunionized workers face the same trend
This high-pressured environment is increasing the need for any product or service that saves time or simplifies life

23. TIME IS BECOMING ONE OF THE WORLD’S MOST PRECIOUS COMMODITIES
Potential business impact
Companies must take an active role in helping their employees balance their work and lives
Stress-related problems affecting employee morale and wellness will continue to grow
Use of the Internet will continue to grow as the time to perform activities, such as shopping at a mall, evaporates

24. Technologies Shaping Our Future
The following technologies have the potential to change our world, our future, and our lives:
Digital ink
Digital paper
Radio frequency identification (RFID)
Teleliving
Alternative energy sources
Autonomic computing

25. DIGITAL INK
Digital ink (or electronic ink) – refers to technology that digitally represents handwriting in its natural form

26. Potential business impact
DIGITAL INK
Potential business impact
Digital ink can be used in many applications:
Point-of-sale signs
Next generation displays in mobile devices and PDAs
Thin, portable electronic books and newspapers
RadioPaper – dynamic high-resolution electronic display that combines a paperlike reading experience with the ability to access information anytime, anywhere

27. DIGITAL PAPER
Digital paper (or electronic paper) – any paper that is optimized for any type of digital printing
The major difference between paper produced from a tree and paper produced in a laboratory is that information on a digital paper sheet can be altered thousands of times and not degrade over time

28. DIGITAL PAPER

29. Potential business impact
DIGITAL PAPER
Potential business impact
Paperlike displays will replace newspapers, magazines, and books
Reusable paper is an environmentally sound idea

30. DIGITAL PAPER
Digital ink and digital paper past, present, and future

31. RADIO FREQUENCY IDENTIFICATION
Radio frequency identification (RFID) – uses active or passive tags in the form of chips or smart labels that can store unique identifiers and relay this information to electronic readers
RFID is transforming the supply chain
RFID systems are automated, reducing the need for manual scanning, such as required with a bar code

32. RADIO FREQUENCY IDENTIFICATION
Potential business impact
Reduces the labor required to monitor goods movement and inventory flow through a supply chain
Allows manufacturers and retailers to complement existing systems while gathering more information
Provides complete supply chain visibility without the prohibitive labor costs and error rates associated with a manual system
RFID helps enforce security by conducting automatic inventory counts

33. RADIO FREQUENCY IDENTIFICATION
Comparison of bar code labeling to RFID

34. TELELIVING
Teleliving – refers to using information devices and the Internet to conduct all aspects of life seamlessly
Includes shopping, working, learning, playing, healing, and even praying
Each year, four billion chips are embedded in everything from coffee makers to Cadillacs

35. Potential business impact
TELELIVING
Potential business impact
In the future, people will move through a constant stream of information summoned at the touch of a finger
Virtual assistant (VA) – a small program stored on a PC or portable device that monitors s, faxes, messages, and phone calls. VAs will mimic real assistants helping individuals solve problems
Robotic salespeople will take on human appearances and perform all tasks associated with a sales job

36. ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES
Wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, solar, and other alternative energy sources will account for 30 percent of all energy use
By 2010 nuclear plants will supply 16% of Russia and eastern Europe’s energy

37. ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES
Potential business impact
China, Asia, India, South America, and Russia are modernizing their economies, which increases their needs for energy
Cost of alternative energy sources is decreasing
Deregulation of the energy industry is expected to increase innovation and foster a wide variety of new energy sources
Oil will remain the world’s most important energy source

38. AUTONOMIC COMPUTING
Autonomic computing – a self-managing computing model named after, and patterned on, the human body’s autonomic nervous system

39. Potential business impact
AUTONOMIC COMPUTING
Potential business impact
Autonomic computing will be used in complex IT infrastructures for security, storage, network management, and redundancy/failover
Computers will monitor components and fine-tune workflows
Autonomic computers will be able to “self-heal”
Autonomic computers will be able to “self-protect”

40. Closing Case One Autonomic Railways
Canadian Pacific Railway (CPR) is one of the largest railway systems in North America with more than 14,000 miles of rail line in Canada and the United States
CPR collaborated with IBM to deliver solutions that are both automated (they can control a defined process without human intervention) and autonomic (they can sense and respond to conditions in accordance with business policies)

41. Closing Case One Questions
Which of the trends shaping our future discussed in this plug-in will have the greatest impact on CPR’s business?
Which of the trends will have the least impact on CPR’s business?
How are the functions of autonomic computing providing CPR with a competitive advantage?
How can CPR take advantage of other technological advances to improve security?

42. Closing Case Two Wireless Progression
Progressive Corporation is the fourth-largest automobile insurer in the Untied States with more than 8 million policyholders and net premiums of $6.1 billion
Progressive offers wireless Web access to holders of its auto insurance policies, a move that analysts have said fits the company’s reputation as a technology leader in the insurance industry and its emphasis on customer service

43. Closing Case Two Questions
Which of the trends shaping our future discussed in this plug-in will have the greatest impact on Progressive’s business?
Which of the trends will have the least impact on Progressive’s business?
What other forms of advanced technology would you expect Progressive to deploy in the near future?