1. Conflict

2. Hard Power – means by which a country tries to impose its will on another. Includes both economic power (aid, bribes, sanctions) and military power
Sanctions – measure taken by countries or international organisations against countries to force them to change policies (no-fly zones, trade embargos)

3. Soft Power – means by which a country tries to impose its will upon another (including co-option, public diplomacy)
less human and financial cost
Co-option – process by which potential opponents become closely tied to one another long before an actual conflict occurs (e.g. creation of EU co-opted France and Germany to one another and reduced theoretical possibility of future intra-European war)

4. Public Diplomacy – process that aims to create an ongoing positive image of a country in the minds of citizens of other countries (e.g. Russia planting their flag on sea bed and publicizing it, USA planting flag on the moon)
Government Diplomacy – involves international negotiations that take place through formal government channels.

5. Causes of Conflict
***Rarely do the causes of a conflict fit into only one of these categories

6. First World War poetry described the terror of the trenches and the futility of war...
In Flanders Fields, by John McRae
In Flanders fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses, row on row,
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.
We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders fields.
Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
Thirteen great First World War poems:
Leonard Cohen recites “In Flanders Fields” by John McCrae | Legion Magazine

7. 1. Natural Resource Conflict
the combination of global industrial development and population growth increases the demand for resources both finite (non-renewable) and renewable
most contentious resource to date has been oil
in years to come, conflicts over water could become more important than oil

8. 2. Territorial Conflict
Israel and Palestine; Basque separatists in Northern Spain

9. 3. Cultural Conflict can take many forms
Aboriginal issues – land vs resources

10. 4. Religious Conflict
Religion is one of the most powerful forces in the world; provides one with spiritual guidance and in most countries forms the basis for secular (non-religious) law.
it unites people through common beliefs and experiences but can also divide
Protestants against Catholics in Ireland
Sunni Vs. Shi’ah

11. 5. Global Geopolitical Conflict
often conflicts within a particular country are little more than localized versions of global rivalries
e.g. Proxy Wars during the Cold War

12. Afghan-Soviet War had all five causes of Conflict
1. Minerals and energy were ripe for export from Afghanistan
2. Soviets wanted land access to the Indian Ocean by having a puppet state (i.e. one country controlled by another)
3. Most Afghanis opposed the modernity that the Russians brought to their country
4. Though there were many Muslims in the USSR, the Soviet military was seen as a great threat to Islam
5. For Soviets, control of Afghanistan provided an opportunity to expand their sphere of influence in an imperialist direction – the Indian subcontinent and Iran
- to the Americans, Afghanistan was an opportunity to give the Soviets a “bloody nose” at little obvious cost to the US
A brief overview of an intricate conflict:

13. Terrorism
Definition (OED):
The unlawful use of violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims.
Etymology: Late 18th century (in reference to the rule of the Jacobin faction during the the period of the French Revolution known as the Terror): from French terrorisme, from Latin terror
See also:

14. Modern Terrorism
Modern Terrorism began in 1968 when an Israeli airliner was hijacked by Palestinian terrorists
Modern Terrorism is distinctive from earlier terrorism in 2 major ways:
a) terrorists have a clearer understanding of the vital role that mass media can play in their struggle (e.g. using the internet to gain publicity and support and spread fear)
b) in comparison to earlier forms of terrorism, little care is taken in modern terrorism to avoid death and injury to ordinary people (before 1968, it was normal for a terrorist group to warn authorities about the placement of a bomb)

15. Objectives
Note – terrorism is not a goal but a system of asymmetric warfare (i.e. type of warfare fought by opponents with dramatically differing conventional military capabilities. Actions by the weaker power are often equated to terrorism by the stronger opponent)
10 Acts of Modern Terrorism (not an exhaustive list) :

16. 1) a terrorist group may be trying to attain a specific goal, such as overthrowing a government, forcing a foreign army to leave a country, obtaining money to support its activities, or forcing the release of imprisoned colleagues
2) Terrorists try to cause widespread fear and anxiety hoping to break down the normal, existing social order of the targeted population and thus improve their chances of achieving their goal

17. 3) Terrorist leaders may want to provoke the target government to overreact and introduce excessively harsh counterterrorism measures. By doing this they hope to make a majority of the population oppose the government
4) Governments themselves, or “deep state” agents within, may use terrorist methods to force obedience from the general population. This type of terrorism is called state terrorism, which is also known as institutional terrorism
“One man’s hero is another man’s terrorist”:

18. Motivations of Terrorism

19. 1) Rational
terrorists may have considered other methods of reaching a particular goal but abandoned them because they were not effective

20. 2) Psychological
terrorists with this motivation feel a sense of purpose in their lives that did not exist before. They are “true believers” in their cause and do not consider the possibility that they might be wrong in either their goals or in their methods. They consider their opponents to be evil and this belief makes it easier to use violence against them.
Terrorists who are psychologically motivated have absolute beliefs; hence, disagreements within the group are not readily accepted. Their result is that groups build on this type of motivation frequently splinter into smaller and smaller factions

21. 3) Cultural
People may join groups out of fear that their most important cultural or religious values are under threat.
To some, terrorism in defence of one’s culture or faith is not only acceptable, it’s a duty (note that they are in the minority)

22. On the changing nature of Terrorist Threats

23. Chemical Terrorism
use of chemical agents eg. poison gas in terrorist attacks
1995 – Aum Shinrikyo – released a nerve gas called sarin into the subway (held breath, dropped bags containing sarin onto the platform and then stepped on them) 12 died and over 5000 were injured
use of biological agents such as viruses (anthrax)

24. Nuclear Terrorism use of nuclear weapons or radioactive materials
There is evidence that both Aum Shinrikyo and Al-Qaeda attempted to purchase a nuclear device from the former USSR in the early 1990’s
hybrid bombs (dirty bombs) – high explosives are used to spread radioactive materials over populated areas
Blow up a nuclear power plant
growth of nuclear programs in a number of countries

25. Is a “War on Terror” Possible?
The term was used by the USA for its anti-terrorist activities after the 2001 attacks on domestic soil
problematic since ‘terror’ is a methodology and not an enemy
wars either end by negotiation, surrender, or the complete destruction of one combatant by the other
President Bush vows to rid the world of evil:

26. Is an end to a “War on Terror” Possible?
Counterterrorism – efforts made by governments and international groups to interfere with the planning, organising and execution of terrorist acts
“How will the War on Terror end?” -CNN:
A lighter look at the War on Terror: