1. Unit 2: Population
Chapter 2: Population

2. Demography The study of population MDC’s vs. LDC’s family sizes
Approx. 7 billion people on Earth
: fastest growth ever
Demographic characteristics: spatial distribution (density, et al), age, gender, occupation, fertility, health, education, etc.
Census (p. 65)

3. Key Issue #1: Where Is the World’s Population Distributed?
Population Concentrations
Near ocean or navigable river
Northern Hemisphere vs. Southern Hemisphere
East Asia
Largest cluster (1/5 of world)
Coastal (Pacific O.), rivers (Chang Jiang/Yangtze, Huang He/Yellow, Xi/Pearl)
China (2/3 rural), Japan, S. Korea, & Taiwan (3/4 urban), N. Korea (very rural)
South Asia
2nd largest (1/5 of world) – mostly rural
India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka (island country)
Coastal (Indian O.), rivers (Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra)
Europe
3rd largest cluster (1/9 of world) - Approx. ¾ urbanized
U.K., France, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, etc.
Coastal (Atlantic O. & Mediterranean), rivers (Danube, Rhine, etc.)

4. Key Issue #1: Where Is the World’s Population Distributed?
Southeast Asia
4th largest (approx. 500 million people) – mostly rural
Indonesia (islands of Java, Sumatra, Borneo, Sulawesi); Philippines; river valleys of Indochina (Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar/Burma), Malaysia (mainland & island of Borneo), Singapore
Coastal (Indian & Pacific), rivers (Mekong, Chao Phraya, Irrawaddy)
Other Clusters
NE U.S. & SE Canada (2% of world) – ¾ urban
Atlantic O., Great Lakes, rivers (Hudson, Delaware, Potomac, Ohio)
West Africa (2% of world) – mostly rural
Nigeria (largest), Ghana, Cote D’Ivoire/Ivory Coast, Senegal, etc.
Atlantic O., rivers (Niger, etc.)

5. Key Issue #1: Where Is the World’s Population Distributed?
Sparsely Population Regions
Ecumene – inhabited portion of the planet
¾ of population lives on 5% of Earth
Dry Lands (15° N - 50° N & 20° S - 50° S)
Wet Lands (near equator)
Cold Lands (near poles)
Highlands (mountains)
Population Density
Arithmetic, Physiological, & Agricultural

6. Practice
Country X has a population of 3 million people, 10% of which are farmers. It has a land area of 150,000 sq. miles, 1/3 of which is arable land. Calculate the following:
Arithmetic density
Physiologic density
Agricultural density
Consider Egypt. It has an arithmetic density of 121 persons per sq. mile, a physiologic density of 4,152 person per sq. mile and an agricultural density of 1,330 farmers per sq. mile
Which country must put more pressure on its land to feed its people, Egypt or Country X?
Which country likely uses more advanced farming methods, Egypt of Country X?

7. Key Issue #2: Where Has the World’s Population Increased?
Natural Increase Rate (NIR or RNI)
Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
Crude Death Rate (CDR)
NIR = CBR – CDR
Doubling time
Highest NIR in Asia, Latin America, & Middle East (LDC’s)
Lowest in Europe and other MDC’s
(generally less than 7 or 0.7% NIR)
World average NIR (2010) – or 1.149%
Fertility
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) – current world TFR = 2.36
MDC’s vs. LDC’s

8. Key Issue #2: Where Has the World’s Population Increased?
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
MDC’s vs. LDC’s
U.S. higher IMR than other MDC’s
Life Expectancy
Maternal Mortality Rate – number of women who die in childbirth each year per 1,000 pregnancies
CBR
CDR
NIR
Life Exp
IMR
TFR
MDC
Low
Low**
High
LDC

9. Key Issue #3: Why Is Population Increasing at Different Rates?
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 (Low Growth)
High CBR, High CDR, NIR approx. 0
Agricultural Revolution (10,000 years ago)
No countries in Stage 1 anymore
Stage 2 (High Growth)
High CBR, Low CDR, High NIR
Accelerated growth stage & slowing growth stage
Industrial Rev. ( ) for Europe, N. America
Medical Revolution (c. 1950) for Africa, Asia, Latin America
CDR drops due to technology, medicine, health/sanitation improvements

10. Key Issue #3: Why Is Population Increasing at Different Rates?
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 3 (Moderate Growth)
Decreasing CBR, Low CDR, Modest NIR
Most Asian & Latin American countries recently in Stage 3
Social changes: fewer kids, decline in IMR, urbanization
Stage 4 (Low Growth)
Low CBR, Low CDR, Low NIR (near 0)
Zero Population Growth (ZPG) when TFR = approx 2.1
Europe, U.S., Canada, etc. (MDC’s)
Social changes: women working, birth control, increased income & leisure time

11. Key Issue #3: Why Is Population Increasing at Different Rates?
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 5 (Negative Growth)
New stage
Experienced in many European and some East Asian countries
CDR > CBR (negative NIR)
Possible Stage 6 if TFR rebounds and CBR begins to increase slightly (Ex. Netherlands)
Demographic Transition in England
Stage 1 - until Stage
Stage Stage present

12. Demographic Transition

13. Key Issue #3: Why Is Population Increasing at Different Rates?
Population Pyramids
Bar graph showing pop. by age & gender
Age Distribution
Dependency Ratio (0-14 & 65+ vs )
Stage 2 – 1:1 ratio Stage 4 – 1:2 ratio
LDC’s – young (1/3 under 15)
Stage 3 & 4 countries – aging or graying population (have higher CDR’s often than LDC’s)
Elderly Support Ratio - # working age person (age 15-64) / elderly (age 65+)
Sex Ratio
More males born but females live longer on average
Cohort – group of people in a study with shared characteristic(s) such as age, sex, etc.

14. Key Issue #3: Why Is Population Increasing at Different Rates?
Countries in Different Stage of DT
Stage 1 – no countries currently
Stage 2 – example of Cape Verde since 1950
West African island nation
Anti-malaria campaign led to pop. boom
Stage 3 – example of Chile since 1960’s
Urbanized, still many large families (Catholic)
Stage 2 in 1930’s due to medical advances
Stage 3 in 1960’s due to gov’t programs
Unlikely to move to Stage 4 – gov’t & religion

15. Key Issue #3: Why Is Population Increasing at Different Rates?
Countries in Different Stage of DT
Stage 4 – example of Denmark since 1970
Stage 2 in 1800’s (Industrial Rev.)
Stage 3 in late 1800’s
1970 – reached ZPG
Pop. pyramid looks like a column (many elderly/rising CDR)
Demographic Transition Worldwide
High growth because of so many Stage 2 countries
Social changes still needed for move to Stages 3 & 4
Changes to drop CBR are slow to occur (money, traditions, gov’t policy)
Demographic Momentum – continued growth experienced even after a decline in fertility rate due to a young age distribution

16. Demographic Transition Pyramids

17. Demographic Transition Pyramids

18. Key Issue #3: Why Is Population Increasing at Different Rates?
Census
Completed in the U.S. every 10 years
Complete count of the population
Used to determine the number of people in an area to adequately provide government services
Collect demographic data (income, age, ethnicity, etc.)
Used to reapportion government representation (number of seats in Congress/parliament/etc.)
Used to redraw political electoral (voting) boundaries

19. Key Issue #4: Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem?
Thomas Malthus & Overpopulation
Overpopulation – when population exceeds carrying capacity (ability of environment & its resources to sustain a certain population)
1798 Essay on the Principle of Population
Pop. grows geometrically (exponentially)
Food supply grows arithmetically (linearly)
Population growing faster than food supply
Needed to lower CBR or disease/famine/war to raise CDR
Right or Wrong?
Neo-Malthusians
Only a few rich countries had entered Stage 2 by 1800
Now, high grow in poorer countries (improved medicine)
Malthus was correct for some poorer countries
Other resources (energy, minerals, land, clean air) face shortages

20. Key Issue #4: Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem?
Thomas Malthus & Overpopulation
Critics of Malthus
Theory based on fixed resources – did not consider new technology/methods (equipment, refrigeration, transport)
Larger pop. could stimulate growth & food production
Others blamed capitalism and unjust economic/social systems for hunger & poverty
Having too few people may harm development
Some nations may consider more people = more power (military)

21. Key Issue #4: Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem?
Declining Birth Rates
Food production has grown similar to Malthus but pop growth has been slower (social changes in Stage 3 & 4)
Some areas are running out of food but not whole world – wealth has limited access not supply
Decline in CBR & NIR worldwide since 1980
CDR increasing in Africa (HIV/AIDS)

22. Key Issue #4: Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem?
Strategies to Decrease CBR
Economic Development – more money, healthcare, education
Distribution of Contraceptives (Birth Control)
Opposition faced where women have fewer rights, large families viewed as positive, religious (Catholic, some Protestant, some Muslim, some Hindu)
Limited money and education for birth control where demand is highest in LDC’s

23. Key Issue #4: Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem?
World Health Trends & Epidemiologic Transition
Epidemic & pandemic
Epidemiologic Transition & Demographic Transition
Stage 1 & 2 (Pestilence & Famine)
Infectious & parasitic diseases, animal & human attacks
Examples: Black Plague (mid 1300s) & Cholera (1800s)
Spread by rats & unsanitary water/sewer
Stages 3 & 4 (Degenerative & Human-created diseases)
Cardiovascular & cancer (associated with diet & aging)
Decline of infectious diseases due to vaccines
Possible Stage 5 (re-emergence of infectious)
Return of diseases, resistant to drugs (Malaria), continued existence in LDC’s, new diseases (Avian Flu)

24. Key Issue #4: Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem?
HIV/AIDS
20 mil. have died as of 2006, 40 mil. with HIV in 2006
Most cases in LDC’s (95%) and most new cases too
South Africa – 6 million with HIV/AIDS
Botswana & Zimbabwe – over 30% of adults
Severe in India & Haiti
Sub-Saharan Africa CDR’s on rise due to AIDS
Life expectancies in Africa dropped from 50s to 30s & 40s since 1980