1. East Renfrewshire December 2016
Skills Assessments
East Renfrewshire
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments
Key Data for East Renfrewshire
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group
Purpose:
Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slidepack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. Local Authority Overview
Overall, East Renfrewshire has above average levels of economic activity and employment rates
However, it is dependent to a large extent on the wider regional economy ( i.e. Glasgow City) and the public sector as a source of employment
Pockets of persistent deprivation exist (e.g. Barrhead and Neilston)
The long term reduction of the working age population raises potential issues for sustained growth

9. Business Trends Business numbers have increased annually since 2011
190 new businesses in 2015 including: Professional, Scientific and Technical (+55) and Business Administration and Support Services (+50)
Business base characterised by micro and small companies, 92% businesses have 0-9 employees (Scotland 88%)
Relatively low business density of 270 (per 10,000 population) (Scottish average 313)
Self-employment at highest rate in 10 years at 13.3% (compared to 10.8% nationally)
Businesses in Growth Sectors slightly below Scottish average
Concentrations of businesses in Financial & Business Services (50%) and Creative Industries (27%) (2015)
However, only 18% of employment in Growth Sectors (2014), reflective of the micro and small businesses that form the majority of the business base

10. Workforce Trends
Total employment in E. Renfrewshire = 20,800 (1% of Scottish total)
7.8% increase over the year, higher than Scotland as a whole (3.2%)
59% of workers are in higher level occupations, well above Scottish average of 42% (2015)
76% of employed population work in private sector, compared to 77% nationally
33% of employees work part-time, up from 29% the previous year, and above national average (26%)
5.6% of people in employment are in non-permanent jobs, compared with 5.3% nationally
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

11. Population and Projections
Total population of 92,940 (2% of Scotland total) (2015)
Population change :
Those aged 65+ increased as share of total population at a rate higher than Scottish average (+20% v. +18%)
Accompanied by a 20% drop in number of year olds
Forecast Population Growth
Total population set to increase by 3,357 (+4% compared to +9% nationally)
Working age population set to decline in East Renfrewshire by 11% during this period

12. Employment and Unemployment
The employment rate has been stable at 74% and slightly above the national rate (73%) (2015)
18% of employed residents work in home LA
Out-commuting to Glasgow City dominates (52%)
The unemployment rate in East Renfrewshire was below the national average (4% v. 6%), unemployment fell at a faster rate than the national decline (-0.4ppt) (2015)
96% of year olds in East Renfrewshire are participating, and 1% are not (compared with 4% nationally) (2016)

13. Qualifications and Earnings
A higher proportion of working age adults in E. Renfrewshire (54%) hold SCQF qualifications at levels 7-12 than in Scotland (43%) (2015)
E. Renfrewshire’s workplace earnings significantly below national average, but resident’s earnings much higher

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 7,783, 2.8% of the Scottish total
95% school leavers had a positive destination in 2015, compared to 92% nationally
MA starts decreased by 4% from 2014/15 to 295
1% of national total in 2015/16
Construction is the most popular framework group, 17% uptake
Heavily gender segregated - 100% male
75% achievement rate 2015/16

15. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, there were 64,630 enrolments at Glasgow City College, Glasgow Clyde College and Glasgow Kelvin College
23% of Scotland’s total
75% FE and 25% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Business, management & admin, Art & Design and Care
Part-time: Computing & ICT, Languages & ESOL and Special Programmes
67% successful completion of FE courses
There were over 69,000 students at the five HEIs in the region in 2014/15
Top three subjects:
Business & Admin, Subjects Allied to Medicine and Engineering
HE/FE data is available at regional level only. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire and Glasgow, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to increase by 0.4% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, an equivalent rate of 0.2% growth is expected for Scotland as a whole. This growth equates to 500 additional jobs in the region by The construction sector is expected to have growth of 300 jobs whilst administrative and support activities and professional, scientific and technical activities are expected to experience growth of 200 jobs each over the forecast. However such gains will be offset by falling employment within the public and education sectors both of which are expected to fall by 200 over the forecast along with a decrease in the manufacturing sector (100 jobs).
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
East Renfrewshire Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 12,700 openings within East Renfrewshire over the forecast period. Expansion demand is expected to grow by 300 openings between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 13,000 openings over the period. Most openings will be in professional and caring, leisure and other service occupations, driven by replacement demand. The total requirement for workers in elementary and associate professional and technical occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the period, driven largely by replacement demand.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. East Renfrewshire: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
East Renfrewshire has had strong jobs growth since 2012, and although this slowed in 2015 there were still 300 more jobs than the previous year at a time of almost no jobs growth for Scotland as a whole. There are now 5% - and 1,000 – more jobs in East Renfrewshire than in 2009.
Jobs growth in 2015 has largely been in the public sector services, with increases in education (+300), public administration & defence (+200) and health (+100). There were also small increases in arts, entertainment & related, accommodation & food services and in wholesale. At the same time there were losses in business administration & support (-300) and retail (-300). There will always be a challenge for East Renfrewshire to grow the private sector employment base given its proximity to Glasgow and ease of commuting.
Nonetheless, the business base in East Renfrewshire has been growing since 2011, and faster than the Scotland average, including growth in business and professional services. Recent output growth has also been good, although output per worker is lower, reflecting the lower value added local sector mix. East Renfrewshire has benefited from the jobs growth in neighbouring Renfrewshire and the economic recovery in Glasgow.
Glasgow

20. East Renfrewshire: Key Implications (2).
Skills demand and supply
The population has increased in the last 10 years, driven by those aged over 65. It is forecast to grow by 4% to 2037, although this is half the Scotland average. The working age population is expected to fall by 11%. More than half of the population commutes to Glasgow, where many access better paid jobs than those available locally.
A third of residents in work are in professional roles, almost six in ten are in higher level occupations. Average wages are well above average. However, demand locally is highest in care, leisure and other service occupations and elementary roles, driven by replacement demand in local employers. Local employer demand will also be high in sales and customer services. It will be a challenge to meet this local demand given the aspiration amongst the majority for higher skilled jobs.
More than 60% go into Higher Education from school, well above the Scotland average of 40%.
The top MA frameworks by take-up largely reflect the local economy – construction, administration & related, hospitality & tourism and retail & customer services.
Glasgow

21. East Renfrewshire: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for Renfrewshire include:
Meeting the skills needs of employers. here are important local sectors and occupations, including health, sales and customer services. There will be strong replacement demand in care, elementary and sales occupations. Local skills activity, should continue to be focused on employer demand.
Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills.
Continuing to grow the number of local jobs. Recent jobs growth has been good, with growth in a number of sectors.
Increasing the quality of jobs. There remains reliance on public service jobs which are forecast to decline and growing local higher value added services is important.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations, also care and sales. Progression needs engendered and supported.
A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing, and this means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
Glasgow