1. Accounting for Rural deprivation
Committee for Agriculture and Rural Development
Northern Ireland Assembly
2nd December 2014

2. Questions To be addressed in this Presentation
Conceptual issues in the construction of Deprivation Indices
Distributions across Urban and Rural Areas in Northern Ireland
The effects of Spatial Aggregation
Designing Resource Allocation Models

3. A Comprehensive Definition of Poverty
Relative Poverty
“People are living in poverty if their income and resources (material, cultural and social) are so inadequate as to preclude them from having a standard of living which is regarded as acceptable by Irish society generally.”
(Government of Ireland, NAPS, 1997)
Relative Deprivation
“The fundamental implication of the term deprivation is of an absence – of essential or desirable attributes, possessions and opportunities which are considered no more than the minimum by that society.”
(Coombes et al., DoE – UK, 1995)

4. The Underlying Dimensions of Social Disadvantage
Demographic Decline (predominantly rural)
population loss and the social and demographic effects of emigration (age dependency, low education of adult population)
Social Class Deprivation (applying in rural and urban areas)
social class composition, education, housing quality
Labour Market Deprivation (predominantly urban)
unemployment, lone parents, low skills base

5. 2011 All-Island HP deprivation Index
Dimensionality of the
2011 All-Island HP deprivation Index d
Age Dependency Rate
Demographic Decline d
Population Change d
Low Qualification d
High Qualification
Social Class Disadvantage d
Persons per Room d
High Social Classes d
Low Social Classes
Labour Market Deprivation d
Lone Parents d
Male Unemployment d
Female Unemployment

6. Population Change
NI: 4.1%
RoI: 8.2%

7. Age Dependency 2011
NI: 34.1%
RoI: 33.0%

8. Lone Parents 2011
NI: 29.3%
RoI: 21.6%

9. Low Qualifications 2011
NI: 40.6%
RoI: 36.8%

10. High Qualifications 2011
NI: 23.7%
RoI: 23.5%

11. Low Social Class 2011
NI: 34.2%
RoI: 27.0%

12. High social Class 2011
NI: 31.1%
RoI: 27.9%

13. Male ILO Unemployment 2011
NI: 10.7%
RoI: 19.8%

14. Female ILO Unemployment 2011
NI: 5.9%
RoI: 12.5%

15. Persons per Room 2011
NI: 0.45
RoI: 0.50

16. 2011 All-Island HP deprivation Index Score
RoI: - 0.7

17. Three Major Observations
By 2011 Northern Ireland had become the more affluent of the two jurisdictions. This is of considerable interest, as the relative positions of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland are reversed compared with our previous analysis.
The driving factor in this striking development has been the ability of Northern Ireland to maintain a comparatively high level of employment despite the unfavourable economic climate since roughly the mid-point of the inter-census period.
The third observation that emerges is that rural areas in the Republic of Ireland appear to be much more negatively affected by opportunity deprivation than equivalent areas in Northern Ireland.

18. Comparison of the Distribution of the All-Island HP deprivation Scores North and South

19. Comparing the All-Island HP deprivation Index and NI Multiple Deprivation Measures – NI only
N = 4, (SA)

20. Urban Rural contrast – NI only HP deprivation Index
Most Deprived Decile
6.8%
93.2%

21. Urban Rural contrast – NI only NIMDM
2.6%
97.4%
Most deprived Decile

22. Urban and Rural Shares in Most deprived decile of Areas in Northern Ireland
Deprivation Index
Rural
% SA
Urban
% Wards
All-Island HP Deprivation Index
6.8
93.2
10.3
89.7
NI Multiple Deprivation Measures (SA – based)
2.6
97.4
5.2
94.8
NI Multiple Deprivation Measures (Ward –based) -
3.4
96.6

23. Ward-level deprivation based on 2011 All-Island HP deprivation Index

24. Ward-level deprivation based on 2010 SA-level Multiple Deprivation Measures

25. Ward-level deprivation based on 2010 Ward-level Multiple Deprivation Measures

26. Building resource Allocation Systems: Modelling Population Shares according to relative Deprivation T – Total Population L – low (48.3%) M – Medium (22.4%) H – High ( 7.4%)
L: 0 STD
48.3% Population
M: -1 STD
22.4%
T : >5 STD
(Total Population)
H: -2 STD
7.4%

27. 2011 All-Island HP deprivation Index Scores for Counties and Local Government Districts
Ireland
Northern Ireland
Local Authority Areas
AI HP Score
Local Government Districts
Carlow
-3.84
Antrim
6.51
Cavan
-2.82
Ards
4.59
Clare
-2.75
Armagh
4.11
Cork City
-2.12
Ballymena
4.91
County Cork
1.95
Ballymoney
2.02
County Galway
-0.82
Banbridge
6.01
County Limerick
-1.35
Belfast
2.65
County Waterford
-1.16
Carrickfergus
4.43
Donegal
-6.06
Castlereagh
8.66
Dublin City
1.79
Coleraine
3.70
Dublin Fingal
Cookstown
3.27
Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown
8.50
Craigavon
3.81
Galway City
5.47
Derry
-0.44
Kerry
-2.55
Down
5.00
Kildare
1.22
Dungannon
4.70
Kilkenny
-1.14
Fermanagh
3.85
Laois
-1.61
Larne
3.72
Leitrim
-1.26
Limavady
-0.70
Limerick City
-8.58
Lisburn
6.47
Longford
-4.41
Magherafelt
5.37
Louth
-3.23
Moyle
1.08
Mayo
-5.13
Newry and Mourne
2.73
Meath
-0.69
Newtownabbey
5.83
Monaghan
-2.83
North Down
8.43
Offaly
-4.04
Omagh
4.48
Roscommon
-3.73
Strabane
Sligo
0.87
South County Dublin
-1.05
Tipperary NR
-4.60
Tipperary SR
-3.87
Waterford City
-4.40
Westmeath
-1.46
Wexford
-5.90
Wicklow
-1.33