1. Trutz Haase Jonathan Pratschke ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX Conceptual Underpinnings ICLRD - Maynooth College - 26 th November 2014

2. DEPRIVATION INDICES NORTH AND SOUTH  Northern Ireland  1981 – Urban Priority Areas (Department of the Environment-UK, 1983)  1991 – Relative Deprivation in NI (Robson et al., 1994)  2001 – NI Multiple Deprivation Measures (Noble, 2001)  2005 – NIMDM update (NISRA, 2005)  2010 – NIMDM update (NISRA, 2010)  Republic of Ireland  1991 – Index of Relative Affluence and Deprivation (Haase et al., 1996)  1996 – Index of Relative Affluence and Deprivation (Pratschke & Haase, 2000)  2002 – Index of Relative Affluence and Deprivation (Haase & Pratschke, 2005)  2006 – New Measures of Deprivation (Haase & Pratschke, 2008)  2006 – Pobal HP Deprivation Index (Haase & Pratschke, 2010)  2011 – Pobal HP Deprivation Index (Haase & Pratschke, 2012)  All-Island  2001/06 – All-Island Deprivation Index (Haase & Pratschke, 2012, Proof-of-Concept Study)  2011 – All-Island HP Deprivation Index (Haase & Pratschke, 2014)

3. THE ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX 1.Proof-of-Concept study successfully concluded in 2012, using 2006 SA level data from the Republic of Ireland and 2001 OA level data for Northern Ireland. 2.Methodological issues that need to be addressed are:  Improved comparability of indicator variables  Common dimensionality of deprivation  Common statistical model  Standardisation of index scores across multiple jurisdictions 3.The 2011 All-Island HP Deprivation Index builds closely on the joint report by CSO and NISRA: Census 2011 – Ireland and Northern Ireland (June 2014) 4.Full data matching significantly improves attractiveness of the new All-Island index.

4. CONCEPTUAL BASIS 1.Index is constructed by way of latent variable modelling, using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and a multi-group structural equation model (SEM) to represent the two jurisdictions. 2.CFA requires a strong theoretical justification before the model is specified 3.The researcher decides which of the observed variables are to be associated with which of the latent constructs 4.Variables are assumed to be imperfect manifestations, thus allowing for measurement error 5.CFA models allow the comparison of outcomes over time 6.CFA facilitates the objective evaluation of the quality of the model through fit statistics

5.  Relative Poverty “People are living in poverty if their income and resources (material, cultural and social) are so inadequate as to preclude them from having a standard of living which is regarded as acceptable by Irish society generally.” (Government of Ireland, NAPS, 1997)  Relative Deprivation “The fundamental implication of the term deprivation is of an absence – of essential or desirable attributes, possessions and opportunities which are considered no more than the minimum by that society.” (Coombes et al., DoE – UK, 1995) A COMPREHENSIVE DEFINITION OF POVERTY

6.  Demographic Decline (predominantly rural)  population loss and the social and demographic effects of emigration (age dependency, low education of adult population)  Social Class Deprivation (applying in rural and urban areas)  social class composition, education, housing quality  Labour Market Deprivation (predominantly urban)  unemployment, lone parents, low skills base THE UNDERLYING DIMENSIONS OF SOCIAL DISADVANTAGE

7. Demographic Decline Social Class Disadvantage Labour Market Deprivation Age Dependency Rate  Population Change  Low Qualification  High Qualification  Persons per Room  High Social Classes  Low Social Classes  Lone Parents  Male Unemployment  Female Unemployment  DIMENSIONALITY OF THE 2011 ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX

8.  Directly comparable indicator variables  Population Change  Age Dependency  Lone Parents Ratio  Average Number of Persons per Room  Newly-designed comparable indicator variables  Proportion of Adult Population with Low Qualifications (no, primary and lower secondary)  Proportion of Adult Population with High Qualifications (third level)  Proportion of Population in High Social Classes (top 2 classes in NS-SEC7 classification)  Proportion of Population in Low Social Classes (bottom 2 classes in NS-SEC7 classification)  Male Unemployment Rate (now ILO-based definition)  Female Unemployment Rate (now ILO-based definition) COMPARABILITY OF INDICATOR VARIABLES

9. POPULATION CHANGE 2006 - 2011 NI:4.1% RoI:8.2%

10. AGE DEPENDENCY 2011 NI:34.1% RoI:33.0%

11. LONE PARENTS 2011 NI:29.3% RoI:21.6%

12. LOW QUALIFICATIONS 2011 NI:40.6% RoI:36.8%

13. HIGH QUALIFICATIONS 2011 NI:23.7% RoI:23.5%

14. LOW SOCIAL CLASS 2011 NI:34.2% RoI:27.0%

15. HIGH SOCIAL CLASS 2011 NI:31.1% RoI:27.9%

16. MALE ILO UNEMPLOYMENT 2011 NI:10.7% RoI:19.8%

17. FEMALE ILO UNEMPLOYMENT 2011 NI: 5.9% RoI:12.5%

18. PERSONS PER ROOM 2011 NI:0.45 RoI:0.50

19. 2011 ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX SCORE NI: 3.0 RoI:- 0.7

20. THREE MAJOR OBSERVATIONS  By 2011 Northern Ireland had become the more affluent of the two jurisdictions. This is of considerable interest, as the relative positions of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland are reversed compared with our previous analysis.  The driving factor in this striking development has been the ability of Northern Ireland to maintain a comparatively high level of employment despite the unfavourable economic climate since roughly the mid-point of the inter-census period.  The third observation that emerges is that rural areas in the Republic of Ireland appear to be much more negatively affected by opportunity deprivation than equivalent areas in Northern Ireland.

21. COMPARISON OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE ALL- ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION SCORES NORTH AND SOUTH

22. COMPARING THE ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX AGAINST THE NI MULTIPLE DEPRIVATION MEASURES

23. 2011 ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX SCORES FOR COUNTIES AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT DISTRICTS Ireland Northern Ireland Local Authority AreasAI HP Score Local Government DistrictsAI HP Score Carlow -3.84 Antrim6.51 Cavan -2.82 Ards4.59 Clare -2.75 Armagh4.11 Cork City -2.12 Ballymena4.91 County Cork 1.95 Ballymoney2.02 County Galway -0.82 Banbridge6.01 County Limerick -1.35 Belfast2.65 County Waterford -1.16 Carrickfergus4.43 Donegal -6.06 Castlereagh8.66 Dublin City 1.79 Coleraine3.70 Dublin Fingal 4.11 Cookstown3.27 Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown 8.50 Craigavon3.81 Galway City 5.47 Derry-0.44 Kerry -2.55 Down5.00 Kildare 1.22 Dungannon4.70 Kilkenny -1.14 Fermanagh3.85 Laois -1.61 Larne3.72 Leitrim -1.26 Limavady-0.70 Limerick City -8.58 Lisburn6.47 Longford -4.41 Magherafelt5.37 Louth -3.23 Moyle1.08 Mayo -5.13 Newry and Mourne2.73 Meath -0.69 Newtownabbey5.83 Monaghan -2.83 North Down8.43 Offaly -4.04 Omagh4.48 Roscommon -3.73 Strabane-2.75 Sligo 0.87 South County Dublin -1.05 Tipperary NR -4.60 Tipperary SR -3.87 Waterford City -4.40 Westmeath -1.46 Wexford -5.90 Wicklow -1.33

24. THE ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX IN THE FORTHCOMING AIRO CENSUS ATLAS