1. New Developments in Energy and Climate Change: The Potential for a New Energy Economy      
U.S. Society for Ecological Economics
Macalester College, St. Paul Minnesota
June 27, 2017
Jonathan M. Harris
Copyright © 2017 Jonathan M. Harris

4. Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuel Consumption, 1860–2013
Cement production and gas flaring
Coal
Oil
Gas
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC)
accessed June 2016.
Note: Emissions in million tons (MMt) of carbon. To convert to MMt of CO2, multiply by 3.67

5. Carbon Dioxide Emissions, , Industrialized and Developing Countries (Million Metric Tons of CO2 )
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration accessed June 2016.
Notes: OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (primarily industrialized countries, while non-OECD are developing countries). The vertical axis in Figure 12.3 measures million metric tons of carbon dioxide. (the weight of a given amount of emissions measured in tons of carbon dioxide is about 3.67 times the total weight in carbon). The emissions estimates of the U.S. EIA shown here differ slightly from those of the CDIAC shown in Figure 12.2.

6. Percentage of Global CO2 Emissions by Country/Region
Source: Jos G.J. Olivier et al., European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, 2014.  “Trends in global CO2 emissions: 2014 Report”

7. Per-Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions, by Country
Source: Source: British Petroleum, Energy charting tool 2015.

8. Carbon Stabilization Scenarios: Required Emissions Reductions
Source: IPCC, 2014d, p. 11.
Note: Upper line represents IPCC RCP 4.5 scenario (moderate stabilization in the range of 530 – 580 ppm CO2 accumulation) and lower line represents IPCC RCP 2.6 scenario (stronger stabilization at 430 – 480 ppm CO2 accumulation).

9. Business as Usual, Paris Pledges, and 2°C Path
150
+4.5°C
120
Business as usual 90
Pledges
Gigatons of CO2 equivalent per year
+3.5°C 60
Goal
Source:
Note: 2°C = 3.6°F; 3.5°C = 6.3°F; 2 4.5°C = 8.1°F. 30
+2°C
2000
2030
2100

10. Can Renewable Energy Provide a Solution to Climate Change?
Long-term link between economic growth and carbon emissions
Need to “decouple” economic activity from carbon emissions
Micro issues: Market pricing and policy actions determine speed of transition
Macro issues: An end to growth, or a new kind of energy economy? Or both?
Renewable energy is rapidly moving from being a “niche” option to a major alternative to fossil fuels. This suggests that the long-term trend of rising carbon emissions accompanying economic growth could change. But how large is the potential, and can economic growth and emissions be “decoupled”?

11. Global Energy Consumption 2013, by source
Figure 11.1
Source: International Energy Agency, 2015.

12. Figure 11.2: United States Energy Consumption 2014, by source
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2016.

13. Figure 11.4: Projected 2035 Global Energy Demand
Source: International Energy Agency, 2015a.

14. World Primary Energy Demand by Fuel and Scenario, 2040
Current Policy Scenario
Total Demand: 19,643 Mtoe
Aggressive Policy Scenario
Total Demand: 15,197 Mtoe
Figure 11.5
Source: International Energy Agency, 2015a.

15. Global Potential for Energy Efficiency
Figure 11.18
2040 Aggressive Policy Scenario
Source: Based on Blok et al., 2008; updated data from IEA 2015a.

16. Availability of Global Renewable Energy
Energy Source
Total Global Availability (trillion watts)
Availability in Likely-Developable Locations (trillion watts)
Wind
1700
40 – 85
Wave
> 2.7
0.5
Geothermal 45
0.07 – 0.14
Hydroelectric
1.9
1.6
Tidal
3.7
0.02
Solar photovoltaic
6500
340
Concentrated solar power
4600
240
But the available sources of renewable energy, especially wind and solar, are much more than enough to supply all the world’s energy needs.
Total global energy use in 2006: 15.8 Trillion Watts
Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011); U.S. Energy Information Administration;
Stanford Engineering News,

17. Infrastructure Requirements for Supplying All Global
Energy in 2030 from Renewable Sources
Energy Source
Percent of 2030 Global Power Supply
Number of Plants/Devices Needed Worldwide
Wind turbines 50
3,800,000
Wave power plants 1
720,000
Geothermal plants 4
5,350
Hydroelectric plants
900
Tidal turbines
490,000
Rooftop solar PV systems 6
1.7 billion
Solar PV power plants 14
40,000
Concentrated solar power plants 20
49,000
TOTAL
100
Shifting entirely to renewable energy would require massive investment in new infrastructure to replace the current fossil fuel infrastructure. But the overall land requirement is not a high proportion of global land area, and in many cases can be combined with agricultural uses.
Land requirement: about 2% of total global land area.
(Can be combined with agricultural uses)
Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011).

18. Growth in Solar and Wind Power, 2003-2012
Figure 11.14
Source: Renewables 2016 Global Status Report For data before 2005, Renewables 2013 Global Status Report.

19. Levelized Cost of Different Energy Sources, United States
Solar PV, utility scale
Solar thermal electricity
Wind-onshore
Wind-offshore
Hydroelectric
Gas combined cycle
Coal
Figure 11.10
Nuclear $0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$/MWh
EIA
Lazard
Sources: Lazard, 2014; U.S. EIA, 2016c.
Note: Lazard values are midpoints of estimated ranges.

20. Externality Cost of Various Electricity Generating Methods, European Union
Figure 11.15
€2012/MWh
Source: European Commission, 2014.

21. Projected Cost of Electricity Generating Approaches, 2020
Cents per kilowatt-hour
Figure 11.16
Source: Jacobson and Delucchi, 2011b.

22. Solar Energy Price Decreases, 1998-2013
Costs of solar energy have declined steadily with technological progess for both commercial and residential PV systems.
Source: Barbose, G., S. Weaver and N. Darghouth Tracking the Sun VII: an historical summary of the installed price of photovoltaics in the United States from 1998 to SunShot Initiative, U.S. Department of Energy

23. Projected further decreases in solar costs, 2015 - 2040
The solar cost decline is expected to continue, briringing solar into a fully competitive range even without subsidies or tax breaks.
Source: Feldman et al Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends: historical, recent, and near-term projections. U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative:

24. Cost decreases are both cause and effect of increased adoption of solar. Economies of scale contribute to driving prices down, and this trend is particualrly marked in recent years.
Source: Solar Energy Industries Association, “Solar Energy Facts: 2014 Year in Review”.

25. Global Clean Energy Investments, 2004-2015
Source: UNEP and Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2016, Figure 4.

26. Bloomberg New Energy Finance:
Solar will “emerge as the least-cost generation technology in most countries by 2030.”
Wind and solar will account for 64% of new generating capacity to be installed over the next 25 years.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance “New Energy Outlook 2016: Long-Term Projections of the Global Energy Sector.” #NEO

27. Policies for the Renewable Energy Transition
Subsidy reform: eliminate fossil fuel subsidies
Pigovian tax on externalities including carbon 
Energy research and development
Feed-in tariffs
Subsidies, including favorable tax provisions and loan terms
Renewable energy targets
Efficiency standards and labelling
Financing mechanisms with zero up-front costs
With renewable energy on the cusp of market competitiveness, active policies have the potential to accelerate the shift to renewables. These policies are backed by sound economics, including: internalizing negative externalities through taxes; internalizing positive externalities through subsides, tax breaks, and preferential financing; investment in R&D; efficiency standards; and renewable energy policy targets at the state, local, and federal level.

29. Carbon in Soils, Grasslands, Forests, and Wetlands
Carbon release from soil degradation and deforestation is major atmospheric carbon source.
Preventing releases from agricultural soils, wetlands, and grasslands would lessen human-released carbon by around 20%.
Preventing further deforestation would reduce emissions by another 10%.
Enhancing uptake by forests, grasslands, and soils would be equivalent to reducing net emissions by an additional 30% or more.