1. Regional Skills Assessments
Forth Valley Region
December 2016 OK
Glasgow

2. Introduction An Introduction to Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)
Key Data for the Forth Valley Region
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to RSAs

4. What are RSAs?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland (SDS), Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development (SLAED) Group.
Purpose:
Support SFC, regional colleges, strategic bodies and college boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for academic years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify regional strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment at a regional level.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do RSAs cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of seven workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slidepack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. Forth Valley Overview
An area adjusting to the decline of traditional industries and experiencing on-going economic transformation, although the port and petro-chemical complex at Grangemouth remain important
Benefiting from its central location at the hub of Scotland’s transport network with easy access to jobs and markets in the central belt, although parts of the region are more rural and remote
An area of contrasts with a stronger economy and labour market in Stirling but weaknesses in Falkirk and Clackmannanshire

9. Business Trends
Growth in business numbers slightly out-paced national growth (7.9% v. 7.3%, +630)
Growth in 2015 concentrated in three sectors: Other service activities (+120); Business admin & support (+110); Professional, scientific & technical (+95)
98% of businesses (8,390) are small or micro (<50 employees), 20 employ 250+
283 businesses per 10,000 population, compared to 313 per 10,000 nationally
Self-employment sits below the national average (9.6% v. 10.8%)
Business R&D spend less than a third of the national average (£53 per head v. £169) and falls significantly below the 2014 UK wide average (£309) 2014
Despite recent growth (+3.2%), only 44% of businesses are in Growth Sectors (46% nationally) (2015)
Greater proportion of Forth Valley Growth Sector businesses are in finance and business services than nationally (40% v. 35%), with fewer in the food and drink sector (14% v. 22%)
23% of employment in Growth Sectors

10. Sector Trends and Specialisms
Fastest growing sectors include high GVA (professional, scientific and technical) and lower GVA (tourism and transport and logistics) sectors
Production employment has grown, which is counter to the long term trend
Under-representation and no/modest growth in the high growth/high value service sectors of business services, financial services and ICT
Note: SIC Section A: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing omitted as data for farm agriculture (SIC subclass 01000) is not available sub-nationally
Click here for explanation: Explanation of Sector Trends and Specialism diagram

11. Population and Projections
Population of 302,650
Home to 5.6% of Scotland’s residents
Population grown slightly faster than national growth rate (+0.7% compared to +0.5%) and over the past ten years (+6% compared to +5%)
Population change :
Driven by growth in the (+22%) and 65+ (+23%) age groups across all three local authority areas
Stirling the only LA in Forth Valley to see growth in the younger population (16-34) over the past ten years
All three LAs have seen a decline in the number of year olds
Forecast Population Growth, :
Population expected to grow slightly more quickly than in Scotland as a whole (+9% compared to +8%, equating to +27,500 people)
But working age population will fall faster than nationally (-4.6% compared to -3.8%, -8,900 people)

12. Employment and Travel to Work
73% of working age residents are in employment, matching Scotland’s employment rate
Place of Work of Residents, by Local Authority:
High levels of out-commuting, with 27% of employed residents working outside Forth Valley
Stirling is the most self-contained labour market, with 62% of those employed working locally
Clackmannanshire has the fewest working within their home area (44%) but the most commuting to other parts of Forth Valley (37%)
Key destinations for out-commuting are Edinburgh (7%) and Glasgow (6%)

13. Workforce Trends 42% work in higher level occupations (2015)
Total employment in Forth Valley = 123,400
1.7% increase – the lowest regional growth rate
Slower than 3.2% increase in Scotland as a whole and 2.7% across Great Britain, following above average growth
42% work in higher level occupations (2015)
Matches Scotland average but slight fall from previous year
Much larger fall in Clackmannanshire
75% work in private sector, compared to 77% nationally but Stirling records the second highest rate nationally (84%)
26% of those in employment work part-time, with the percentage fluctuating between 22% and 27% over the past ten years
5.8% are in non-permanent employment, slightly higher than in Scotland (5.4%), rising to 7.3% in Stirling
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

14. Unemployment and Participation
The unemployment rate is falling faster than Scotland wide, and matches the national average in 2015
Participation rates amongst year olds in line with the national average
The unemployment rate in the region was the same as the national average (6%), unemployment fell by -1.1ppts which was greater than the national decline (-0.4ppts) from 2014 to 2015.
Within the region the unemployment rate was highest in Falkirk (6%) and lowest in Clackmannanshire (4%).
Unemployment rate: Unemployed as a percentage of the economically active population

15. Qualifications and Skills
An increasingly highly qualified workforce :
Increase in the proportion holding levels 7-12
Reduction in share of the population with no qualifications, but less marked than nationally
But still less well-qualified than is the case nationally:
Fewer working age adults hold SCQF qualifications at levels 7-12 than the Scotland average, although Stirling performs strongly
However, Forth Valley outperforms the UK wide average (37%)

16. Skills Mismatches
58% of Forth Valley businesses have recruited staff over the past year (2015), compared to 53% nationally
Skills shortages are slightly less prevalent than nationally
Hard-to-fill vacancies equivalent to 0.9% of the workforce (an increase of 0.7% from the 2013 Employer Skills Survey), compared to 1.1% nationally
Skills shortage vacancies equivalent to 0.7% of the workforce, compared to 0.8% in Scotland as a whole
8% of the workforce have a skills gap (+2% from the 2013 Employer Skills Survey) compared to 5% nationally.
In 2015 Forth Valley employers are more likely to report skills gaps and under-utilisation of skills than across Scotland
Skills gaps particularly prevalent in skilled trades occupations
82% of employers with a skills gaps say there is an impact on the business (70% nationally)

17. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 16,905, 6% of Scotland total
91% school leavers had a positive
destination in 2015, compared with 92% nationally
Modern Apprenticeship (MA) uptake increased marginally 0.5% from 2014/15
6% of national total in 2015/16
Construction most popular MA framework group
18% of uptake
Heavily gender segregated - 99% male
77% MA achievement rate in 2015/16

18. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, at Forth Valley College there were 14,530 enrolments
5% of Scotland’s total
84% FE and 16% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Engineering, Care, Business, management & administration
Part-time: Engineering, Special Programmes, Construction
69% successful completion of FE courses
There were over 10,000 students at the one HEI in the region, the University of Stirling, in 2014/15
Top three subjects:
Biological Sciences, Business & Admin, Social Studies
HE/FE data is available at regional level only. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in the region, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA

19. Workforce Growth
The size of the working age population is expected to fall faster in Forth Valley than in Scotland as a whole over the next 20 years
By 2037 there are projected to be nearly 9,000 fewer people of working age, further reducing the scope to raise GVA through increasing the number of people in work
Challenge in providing the skilled labour employers need as older workers retire
Despite this, Forth Valley is forecast to have employment growth from 2016 to 2024 (0.3% v. 1.0% nationally). This equates to 400 additional people in employment
This is in contrast to a decline across the region from 2006 to The number of people in employment fell by -6.8%, compared to 2.7% growth nationally
Note: analysis uses total employment (people) rather than total employment (jobs).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Improving productivity will become the key determining factor in increasing economic prosperity

20. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to rise by 0.2% per year over the period, matching the Scottish average. Growth at this pace equates to the creation of 1,700 additional jobs in the area by Decreases are expected in mining and public administration, with losses of 1,100 and 1,000 jobs respectively. The construction and administrative & support activities sectors however are expected to enjoy increases of 1,000 and 900 jobs respectively over the period. The professional, scientific and technical sector is also expected to experience significant job creation (700 jobs).
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
Forth Valley Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
CHECK THIS
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

21. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
The forecast flat employment growth is reflected in the relatively static occupational groupings. Professional and elementary occupations are expected to see some modest growth over the forecast (200 people) as are skilled trades occupations and caring, leisure and other service occupations (also 200 people). Declines however are expected over the period for associate professional and technical occupations, administrative and secretarial occupations and process, plant and machines operatives (200 people each).
Forecast Changes in Occupational Demand
Forth Valley Employment
Change in number of workers (‘000s),
X axis isn’t right here.
Note: chart uses total employment (people).
Source: Oxford Economics
‘000s
Glasgow

22. Jobs and Skills Changes (3)
The majority of openings in Forth Valley over the forecast will require individuals with higher level qualifications, in part a reflection of the sectoral and occupational trends expected over this period. Individuals qualified to SCQF level 7 or above will account for 52% of the 42,800 openings expected to be created between 2016 and The remaining opportunities will mainly be for individuals qualified to SCQF levels 5-6, equivalent to 35% of openings over the forecast period. There will be limited demand for those with qualifications below this level.
Forecast employment change by Qualification ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

23. Jobs and Skills Changes (4)
Replacement demand will result in over 42,300 openings within the Forth Valley region over the forecast period ( ). These openings will occur across all types of occupations including those that are expected to decline in net terms. Expansion demand is expected to result in 800 openings between However together with replacement demand, will result in 43,100 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in elementary and professional occupations, which are expected to experience both expansion and replacement demand over the period to 2024.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

24. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

25. Forth Valley: Key Implications (1).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Increasing the quality of jobs. The most significant recent employment growth has been in services, including tourism, and the region has not increased the number of higher value added services jobs. There is a need for Forth Valley to continue to make the transition to a more knowledge-based economy.
Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills. There will continue to be extreme competitive pressures in manufacturing, as well as services, that will demand high levels of business innovation and a skilled workforce.
Continuing to increase the number of local jobs. Out commuting from Stirling and Falkirk to Edinburgh and Glasgow is common. These jobs pay better than those in the region. Whilst it may not be possible to compete with the two cities, there must be sufficient opportunities for those wishing to work in the region.
Glasgow

26. Forth Valley: Key Implications (2).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (1). There are key sectors and occupations in the regional economy where growth and replacement demand is strong, including tourism and skilled trades. Tourism has been a growth sector in Forth Valley. These require work-based learning routes into, and upwards, within sectors.
Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (2). The health and social care sector is an important sector, and the ageing population in the region will have increasing care needs that will need to be met over time.
The specific needs of the manufacturing sector must continue to be met. There will be challenging times ahead for the sector, yet it still contributes a disproportionate amount of output. Engineering & related skills needs in the region will need to be met by fit for purpose skills provision.
Glasgow

27. Forth Valley: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations – and so progression to upper skills levels needs to be engendered and facilitated. Employment in the professional services has fallen, and the region needs to make sure there are sufficient skills to meet employer demand where this exists.
A need to increase the pool of labour and to reduce inequality. There remain significant inequalities in the region, and there is a need to ensure that some groups do not become distanced from the labour market, or become entrenched in low pay sectors with limited progression opportunities.
A need for flexible provision. Non-permanent employment is increasingly a feature of the Scotland economy and more of the future jobs are expected to be part-time. Non traditional employment also means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with Foundation Apprenticeships and work placement programmes such as the Certificate of Work Readiness a feature of this.
Glasgow

28. Explanation of Sector Trends and Specialism diagram
The Sector Growth diagram allows three pieces of sector information to be displayed, providing a useful overview of the local economy. The diagram includes: Sector size (in terms of employment) – shown through the relative size of the dot representing the sector. Sector concentration relative to the Scottish average – The level of concentration is illustrated on the vertical axis through the Location Quotient. The Location Quotient is a measure of the concentration of industry in an area compared to the national average. It produces an index whereby a score of 1 indicates the industry employment concentration is the same both in the local area and nationally, more than 1 represents a higher concentration and less than 1 a lower concentration. Sector average annual growth rate – The horizontal axis shows the average annual employment growth rate of each sector over the past five year period. The diagram includes four quadrants: Top right quadrant - sectors that have shown employment growth and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom right quadrant – sectors that have shown employment growth but are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Top left quadrant – sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom left quadrant - sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average
Click here to go back to the main presentation: Sector Trends and Specialisms