1. The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
Bulgaria Electricity Sector Forecast till year 2030
ENERGOPROEKT – JSC
Dipl. Eng. Temenuga Manoilova
tel.:(+359 2)
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

2. The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
The energy markets are influenced by the majority of environmental protection policy and the market positions of the existing and new market players. The energy markets have been liberalized that gives the consumers free choice to the electricity suppliers. The restrictions connected with the environmental protection formed new market possibilities for using the renewable energy sources for electricity production. Bulgaria’ participation concept in the regional electricity market is connected with clarifying national country’ interests definition based on the following main principles:
security of electricity supply, market development connected with keeping in mind the environment protection requirements, competition;
deliveries diversification – deliveries competition;
the strategically geographical country’s position is one of the regional electricity market integration precondition;
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

3. The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
The official objectives of the energy policy in Bulgaria are implemented in the following documents:
The Energy Law, adopted by the Bulgarian Parliament in November, 2003;
The Energy Efficiency Law, adopted by the National Assembly in February, 2004;
The Bulgarian Government Managing Program;
National Climate Change Action Plan;
National Development Plan till year 2006.
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

4. The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

5. The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

6. The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

7. The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

8. The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

9. The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

10. Fig. 7. The Electricity Consumption Structure in Bulgaria
The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
Fig. 7. The Electricity Consumption Structure in Bulgaria
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

11. The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

12. The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
A correlation between the electricity consumption in the public sector and the electricity intensity has been observed in the period
At the same time a correlation dependence has been observed among the electricity consumption in Households, number and family income and the electricity prices.
The factors that influence the country’s electricity consumption:
GDP- produced;
population number/ family number;
price of electricity;
electricity intensity.
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

13. The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

14. The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

15. The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
Facts and Tendencies
The economy privatization processes have finished;
A period of economy stabilization has started;
A stable electricity production growth has been observed during the last 5 years;
The Energy and Energy efficiency laws have been accepted in Bulgarian Parliament;
A lot of energy efficiency measures have been implemented in the country’s economy.
Facts and Tendencies
The stable level for the industrial electricity price has been provided during the last years in accordance with the price policy;
The undertaken energy efficiency measures help a lot for energy resources rational usage in electricity production taking in mind the environmental requirements;
The total electricity consumption growth is by 4.5%;
The same level of Households electricity consumption was observed;
Decrease of GDP electricity intensity with 6.3%.
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

16. The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

17. The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
The Climate Change Convention has been ratified by the Bulgarian Parliament in March Bulgaria has ratified the Kyoto Protocol and has assumed the CO2 decline with an average of 8% till in comparison with 1988;
During the period the CO2 emissions have stable level about 46% in comparison with the base year due to the Industry’s reforms ;
CO2 is with the biggest contribution in the country‘s greenhouse gases emissions;
The Energy sector plays a dominating role in the total emissions’ production about 75-77% after 1998, Industry, Agriculture and Wastes have no more than 7-8% each;
Bulgaria has ratified the Gothenburg Convention for trans-border air pollution in 1989 – assumed to reduce the anthropogenic emissions of SO2 NOX; ammonia and carbon oxides respectfully with 57%, 26%, 25% and 15% in comparison with the base level. There exist a necessity of TPPs rehabilitation in order the country could carry out its emissions obligations.
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

18. Preconditions for the developed electricity consumption options
The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
Preconditions for the developed electricity consumption options
Macroeconomic forecast;
Electricity intensity sectors’ forecast;
Final electricity consumption in Industry forecast;
Final electricity consumption in Households forecast;
Country’s final electricity consumption forecast;
Country’s gross electricity consumption forecast;
Auxiliaries and electricity losses forecast;
Electricity exports forecast.
Data base
The installed TPP power units;
Rehabilitation programs for the existing power units;
Some of the existing power units
decommissioning;
Technical-economic indicators of generating power units;
Electricity energy system development options;
The implementation of new electricity generation units ;
Possibilities for electricity export;
Possibilities for RES implementation in the system.

19. The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

20. Table 1. The Expected GDP Structure in Bulgaria, %
The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
Table 1. The Expected GDP Structure in Bulgaria, %
2002
2003
2004
2005
2010
2015
2020
2030
Industry
28.68
29.98
28.42
28.70
29.00
28.80
28.40
27.00
Agriculture
12.50
11.40
12.00
11.70
11.50
10.30
9.70
9.00
Services
58.82
58.60
59.60
59.50
60.90
61.90
64.00
Source: National Plan for Economic Development
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

21. The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
Table 2. Macroeconomic Factors Forecast that Influence
the Households Electricity Consumption
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
2010
2015
2020
2030
Population, 106 inhabitants
8.15
7.89
7.84
7.80
7.70
7.43
7.07
6.97
6.54
Households 106
3.05
2.98
2.97
2.96
2.86
2.83
2.65
Total income, lv.
3530
3959
4447
4793
5129
6390
7336
8423
10108
Total income
growth
6.3%
12.2%
12.3%
7.8%
3.4%
4.5%
2.8%
2.0%
Electricity
price growth
17.4%
4.8%
17.5%
18.9%
5.8%
2.2%
1.4%
1.2%
Source: National Plan for Economic Development
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

22. Fig. 14. The Expected Gross Electricity Production
The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
Fig. 14. The Expected Gross Electricity Production
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

23. The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

24. The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

25. Tab.3. The Expected Structure of Electricity Consumption in Bulgaria,%
The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
Tab.3. The Expected Structure of Electricity Consumption in Bulgaria,%
2002
2003
2005
2010
2015
2020
2030
Industry
54.5
53.8
49.1
46.6
46.0
49.5
50.4
Households
36.8
37.1
37.9
40.6
41.3
37.5
33.9
Services
6.3
6.7
10.5
10.1
10.2
10.4
13.0
Transport
1.8
1.7
2.1
2.2
2.3
Agriculture
0.6
0.7
0.4
9 May 2005, Warsaw, Poland

26. The State and Forecast of Electricity Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Region up to 2030
Results
Households electricity consumption growth is expected to be about 33% in the period and up to 37% in the period ;
Industry electricity consumption growth is expected to be about 35% in the period and up to 56% in the period ;
Transportation electricity consumption growth is expected to be about 62% in the period and up to 93% in the period ;
Services electricity consumption growth is expected to be about 33% in the period and up to 89% in the period ;
Agriculture electricity consumption growth is expected to be negative about 30% in the period and up to 22% in the period