1. Regional Skills Assessments
Fife
December 2016
Glasgow

2. Introduction An Introduction to Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)
Key Data for Fife
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to RSAs

4. What are RSAs?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland (SDS), Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group (SLAED).
Purpose:
Support SFC, regional colleges, strategic bodies and college boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for academic years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify regional strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment at a regional level.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do RSAs cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of seven workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slide pack provides a summary of the data for this area
Fife

8. Fife Overview
A mixed region, incorporating urban and rural areas along with affluent areas and concentrations of deprivation
Benefits from its location and transport links to access jobs and markets in Edinburgh, the Central Belt and Dundee. The new Forth Crossing will enhance two way commuting
The economy has undergone significant change with the decline of traditional industries. It is now emerging from the impact of the economic downturn and has had considerable success in attracting investment
Fife

9. Business Trends
Business base continued to grow in 2015, exceeding Scottish growth rate
+770 businesses in 2015 to 9,010 in total, +9.3% compared to +7.3% nationally
Recent growth concentrated in: professional, scientific and technical (+165); other service activities (+135); and administrative and support services (+130)
8,840 businesses (98%) are small or micro (<50 employees)
35 employ 250+, accounting for 0.4% of the business base
The number of businesses in Growth Sectors increased in 2015 by 5.4% but at 42% of the business base representation remains lower Scotland (46%)
Slightly greater proportions of Growth Sector businesses in finance and business services and sustainable tourism than nationally (37% v. 35% and 22% v. 18%)
Relatively low business density with 245 enterprises per 10,000 residents, compared to 313 nationally
Fife

10. Sector Trends and Specialisms
Strong group of sectors in high representation and high growth quadrant
Strong employment growth in public administration and defence and good growth in three large sectors – production, construction and retail
Job losses in a mixture of sectors, some of them in national high growth sectors such as information and communication, finance and insurance and business administration
Note: SIC Section A: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing omitted as data for farm agriculture (SIC subclass 01000) is not available sub-nationally
Click here for explanation: Explanation of Sector Trends and Specialism diagram
Fife

11. Population and Projections
Population of 368,080
6.9% of Scotland’s total population (2015)
At 0.2% increased slower than national growth rate (+0.5%) and over the past ten years (+4% compared to +5%)
Population change 2005 – 2015:
Driven by growth in the 65+ age group
A decline in the 0-15 age group
No change in the working age population
Forecast Population Growth,
Reflecting the national picture, Fife is expected to have a growing population and a declining workforce
Population is forecast to grow by 29,500 (8%) to 2037
Working age population is anticipated to fall by 6% compared to a fall of 4% nationally
Dependency ratios will therefore increase in Fife as well as in Scotland and the UK
Fife

12. Employment and Travel to Work
73% of working age residents are in employment, matching Scotland’s employment rate (2015)
76% of those in work are employed locally:
Key destinations for out-commuting are Edinburgh, Dundee, and Perth and Kinross
Resident earnings are higher than median workplace earnings suggesting commuters are accessing higher paid jobs
Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or
with no fixed place of work
Fife

13. Workforce Trends 39% work in higher level occupations (2015)
Total employment in Fife = 135,800 accounting for 5% of Scotland’s employed workforce
4.1% increase compared to the 3.2% increase in Scotland as a whole and 2.7% in GB
9.8% of workforce are self employed (10.8% nationally)
39% work in higher level occupations (2015)
Remains below Scotland average (42%) but a slight increase from previous year
74% work in private sector, compared to 77% nationally
Part time employment accounts for 26% of those in employment with the percentage fluctuating between 24% and 27% over the past ten years
6.3% are in non-permanent employment, higher than for Scotland
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.
Fife

14. Unemployment and Participation
The unemployment rate is 7% (higher than the Scottish and UK wide averages) and is in line with Fife’s pre-recession unemployment rate.
88% of young people aged in Fife are participating, below the Scottish rate of 90.4%
A higher proportion in Fife (5%) are not participating, exceeding the Scottish rate of 4%
Unemployment in the region increased by 1.4ppts whilst nationally it declined (-0.4ppts) from 2014 to 2015.
Unemployment rate: Unemployed as a percentage of the economically active population
Fife

15. Qualifications and Skills
An increasingly highly qualified workforce 2005 – 2015
Proportion of residents qualified to Level 7+ increased at a faster rate than nationally over last 10 years (+16% compared to +12%)
At 43%, the same proportion of working age adults hold SCQF qualifications at levels 7-12 as for Scotland. This is higher than the UK average of 37%.
In Fife the proportion of the population qualified to SCQF level 7 and higher increased faster over 2015 (3ppts) than across Scotland (2ppts)
Fife

16. Skills Mismatches
56% of Fife employers have recruited over the past year (2015), compared to 53% nationally
Skills gaps more likely than in Scotland overall
15% of employers report a skills gap in the current workforce (national = 13%)
7% of workforce have skills gaps, compared to 5% nationally
Gaps particularly prevalent in machine operatives and admin & clerical staff
Higher proportion (9%) report at least one hard-to-fill vacancy compared to Scotland (6%). In Fife this accounts for 0.9% of the total workforce, with skills shortage vacancies equivalent to 0.8% of the total
At around a third, similar proportion of Fife employers report under utilisation of skills as nationally
73% of employers with skills gaps report an impact on the business, again in line with the national picture
Fife

17. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 19,905, 7.1% of Scotland total
91% school leavers had a positive
destination in 2015, compared to 92% across Scotland
Modern Apprenticeship (MA) uptake increased by 10% from 2014/15 to 1,745
7% of national total in 2015/16
Construction most popular MA framework group
18% of uptake
Heavily gender segregated - 99% male
73% MA achievement rate in 2015/16

18. Workforce Growth
The size of the working age population is expected to fall by slightly more in Fife than in Scotland as a whole by 2037
By 2037, there will be 13,420 fewer people of working age, reducing the scope to raise GVA through increasing the number of people in work
Challenge in providing the skilled labour employers need as older workers retire and their skills are lost to the labour market
Fife is forecast to have a decline in the number of people in employment from 2016 to 2024 (-0.2% v. 1.0% nationally) This will mean 300 fewer people are in employment
This would be in contrast to employment growth across the region from 2006 to The number of people in employment increased by 1,900 (1.3%)
Note: analysis uses total employment (people) rather than total employment (jobs).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Improving productivity and retaining skills to contribute to the region’s GVA are central to increasing economic prosperity
Fife

19. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, at Fife College there were 19,290 enrolments
8% of Scotland’s total
79% FE and 21% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Engineering, Hairdressing, beauty and comp therapies, Care
Part-time: Engineering, Special programmes, Computing & ICT
62% successful completion of FE courses
There were over 11,000 students at the two HEIs in the region in 2014/15
Top three subjects:
Social studies, Historical and Philosophical Studies, Physical Sciences
2014/15 students at HEIs in Fife
Total university students
University of St Andrews
10,790
SRUC Elmwood
290
Total
11,080
HE/FE data is available at regional level only. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in the region, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA

20. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to decline in the short term before posting some moderate growth from Average annual growth over the period to 2024 will be 0.1% compared to 0.2% in Scotland. This is equivalent to the creation of 300 additional jobs in the area by Manufacturing and public administration & defence are expected to shed around 2,700 jobs over the forecast. There will also be jobs losses within education. In contrast, such declines will be offset by gains in construction, professional, scientific and technical activities and administrative and support activities. Construction employment is expected to increase by 800 by 2024, and both professional, scientific & technical activities and administrative and support activities by 600 jobs each.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
Fife Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

21. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
The weak employment growth forecast is reflected in relatively static occupational groupings. Some modest growth is expected in skilled trades occupations and caring, leisure and other service occupations (both 200 workers) as well as managers, directors and senior officials, sales and customer service occupations and elementary occupations (each 100 workers). The steepest decline will be in administrative and secretarial occupations (500 workers) and a decrease over the period is also expected in professional occupations and associate professional and technical occupations, both with a decrease of 100 workers.
Forecast Changes in Occupational Demand
Fife Employment
Change in number of workers (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (people).
Source: Oxford Economics
‘000s
Glasgow

22. Jobs and Skills Changes (3)
The majority of openings in Fife over the forecast will require individuals with higher level qualifications, in part a reflection of the transition away from manufacturing. Individuals qualified to SCQF level 7 or above will account for 52% of the 58,200 workers needed between 2016 and The remaining opportunities available will mainly be for individuals qualified to level 5/6, equivalent to 35% of openings over the forecast period. There will be limited demand for those with qualifications below this level.
Forecast Employment Change by Qualification ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

23. Jobs and Skills Changes (4)
Replacement demand will result in over 58,200 openings within Fife region over the forecast period These openings will occur across all types of occupations including those that are expected to decline in net terms. Expansion demand is expected to result in 100 openings between However together with replacement demand, will result in 52,800 openings over this period. Openings will be highest within elementary and professional occupations. Elementary occupations will experience replacement and expansion demand over the forecast period although demand will be predominantly driven by replacement. There will also be strong demand for skilled workers and sales occupations across the forecast period to
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

24. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

25. Fife Region: Key Implications (1).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Increasing the quality of jobs in the region. The most significant recent employment growth has been in services, including tourism and some parts of the public sector. The region has grown its financial and business services sector to some extent, however more needs to be done to increase the number of higher value added jobs based in the region.
Increase the number of jobs in the region. Recent jobs growth has stalled, and there is a need to re-energise jobs growth. The manufacturing sector is forecast to decline over time, and there will be a need to replace these jobs. The region also remains over-reliant on public sector employment.
Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills. There will continue to be extreme competitive pressures in manufacturing, as well as services, that will demand high levels of business innovation and a skilled workforce. Employers in the region need to be helped and encouraged to address the evident workforce skills deficiencies.
Glasgow

26. Fife Region: Key Implications (2).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (1). There are key sectors and occupations in the regional economy where growth and replacement demand is strong, including sales, customer services and and skilled trades. Accommodation and food services sector employment has grown, increasing demand for hospitality & tourism. These require work-based learning routes into, and upwards, within sectors.
Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (2). The health and social care sector is an important sector, and the ageing population in the region will have increasing care needs that will need to be met over time.
The specific needs of the manufacturing sector must continue to be met. There will be challenging times ahead for the sector, yet it still contributes a disproportionate amount of output. Engineering & related skills needs in the region, will need to be met by fit for purpose provision.
Glasgow

27. Fife Region: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations – and so progression to upper skills levels needs to be engendered and facilitated. Employment in the professional services has fallen, and the region needs to make sure there are sufficient skills to meet employer demand where this exists.
A need to help those outside the labour market to access employment. There remain inequalities in the region, and the numbers in relative deprivation is increasing. There is a need to ensure that some groups do not become distanced from the labour market, or become entrenched in low pay sectors with limited progression opportunities.
A need for flexible provision. Non-permanent employment is increasingly a feature of the Scotland economy and more of the future jobs are expected to be part-time. Non traditional employment also means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning a feature of this.
Glasgow

28. Explanation of Sector Trends and Specialism diagram
The Sector Growth diagram allows three pieces of sector information to be displayed, providing a useful overview of the local economy. The diagram includes: Sector size (in terms of employment) – shown through the relative size of the dot representing the sector. Sector concentration relative to the Scottish average – The level of concentration is illustrated on the vertical axis through the Location Quotient. The Location Quotient is a measure of the concentration of industry in an area compared to the national average. It produces an index whereby a score of 1 indicates the industry employment concentration is the same both in the local area and nationally, more than 1 represents a higher concentration and less than 1 a lower concentration. Sector average annual growth rate – The horizontal axis shows the average annual employment growth rate of each sector over the past five year period. The diagram includes four quadrants: Top right quadrant - sectors that have shown employment growth and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom right quadrant – sectors that have shown employment growth but are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Top left quadrant – sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom left quadrant - sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average
Click here to go back to the main presentation: Sector Trends and Specialisms