1. Forecasting Resilience in Arctic Societies: Agent-based modeling tools for assessing human-hydrological systems
Andy Kliskey1
Lil Alessa1
Mark Altaweel1,2
1Resilience & Adaptive Management Group, University of Alaska Anchorage
2Argonne National Laboratory

2. (Credit: David Verbyla, UAF)
Era of rapid change
Contact Verbyla
1985
1995
(Credit: David Verbyla, UAF)

3. (Credit: Bunn, EOS) (Credit: USGS)
Satellite data map a greening Arctic tundra. Brown shows where photosynthesis decreased between 1981 and 2005, and green where it increased. This change resulted mainly from shrubs invading permafrost, beginning a chain of events that may affect global climate.
(Credit: Bunn, EOS)
(Credit: USGS)

4. (Credit: EALAT, Inger Marie Gaup EIRA)
Era of rapid change
Satellite data map a greening Arctic tundra. Brown shows where photosynthesis decreased between 1981 and 2005, and green where it increased. This change resulted mainly from shrubs invading permafrost, beginning a chain of events that may affect global climate.
(Credit: AAAS)
(Credit: EALAT, Inger Marie Gaup EIRA)

5. Complex dynamics – social & ecological systems, spatial and temporal scales
Colony elevation, branching and resource availability.

6. Emergent tools agent-based models (ABM)

7. ABM defined …
A computational model for simulating the actions and interactions of individuals in a network …
with a view to examining their effects on the entire system

10. Values held toward water
Source: Alessa , Kliskey, Williams. Society & Natural Resources

11. Perceived change vs Actual change1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Aggregated perception of change for age groups
17.0
19.0
21.0
23.0
25.0
27.0
29.0
31.0
33.0
35.0
Mean annual temperature (deg F)

12. Perception of change in water availability correlated with presence/absence of MWS
People from villages with no MWS perceive greater change in river water availability
Chi-square = 6.01, p<0.01
Source: Alessa, Kliskey, Williams. Polar Geography 2007.

13. Some rules …
Perception of change in water resources varies with age cohort
Values toward water vary with age cohort
Perception of change in water availability vary with presence of MWS
Perception of change in water resources varies by agent type

14. Human-hydrological dynamics: Integrating Multiple Approaches FERAL: Forecasting Environmental Resilience of Arctic Landscapes

15. Different Approaches – Seward Peninsula Scenarios
Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain
Discharge data (USGS)
Demographic Life Tables
Data from US Census and Alaska’s Department of Health and Social Services
Water Use Model
Data from Seward Peninsula fieldwork

16. Applying Agent-Based Modeling

17. Initial Social Model Current Social ABM in FERAL
Step 1: Assess water source selection process
with observed trends and
determine consequences of water
selection choices.

18. Questions- White Mountain (Seward Peninsula) Scenarios
How do agents choose water source locations?
What are the consequences of agent decisions?
What social-ecological changes are suggested by water use of different sources?

19. Integrated Models: Example Runtime Output 1
Discharge: Model uses
Metropolis-Hasting Markov
chain to calculate discharge
levels at a given time.
AAAS: 9/16/08

20. Integrated Models: Example Runtime Output 2
Maximum
River Discharge
Mean
Quantity change belief

21. Integrated Models: Example Runtime Output 3
Population changes slowly,
based on demographic trends
in Alaska and Seward
Peninsula

22. 10-Year Scenario: Travel To River
Fish River
agents
White Mountain
Agents concentrate at river
sources nearest to
White Mountain.

23. 10-Year Scenario: Selection of Sources in the Fish River
Observed matches
well with expected

24. 10-Year Scenario: Municipal and Non-Municipal Choices
Noticeable shift toward older agents using municipal sources.
10-Year Scenario: Municipal and Non-Municipal Choices
1=Beginning of the simulation
2= End of the simulation

25. 100-Year Scenario: Declining Use of River Sources
River sources are abandoned between years
Average abandonment time for the river is 36 years

26. 100-Year Scenario: Water Use and Population
Rapid increase in municipal water use

27. Social-Ecological Changes
Still not clear from the modeling (more work needed here).
We expect greater use of municipal systems to create greater strain on the sources providing municipal systems. Considering the small population, this might not be very significant; however, other more intensive water use operations could alter water quality and quantity availability (e.g., mining).
Fast changing social and land use dynamics (e.g., construction of municipal system) vs. slower climate driven phenomena (e.g., permafrost thawing).

28. Conclusions
Social-Ecological problems can be addressed by coupling different processes using various methodologies at different spatiotemporal scales.
In addition to addressing regional level dynamics, resilience approaches need to begin to assess small-scale (e.g., community-level) dynamics.
Need for integrating interdisciplinary research teams.
Close collaboration between modeling and fieldwork can enable better overall results.