1. Forecasting Resilience of Social Ecological Landscapes Some Tools to Help Us Understand This Thing Called “Sustainability” Lilian Alessa, Andrew Kliskey, Mark Altaweel Resilience and Adaptive Management Group, Water and Environmental Research Center, University of Alaska; Center for Social Dynamics and Complexity, Arizona State University, University of Chicago, Argonne National Lab

2. A Few Sustainability Myths 1.Sustainability is about the environment. 2.Consumer choices and grassroots activism works. 3.There is no single critical piece of the sustainability challenge. Lemonik, 2009. Princeton, New Jersey.

3. Humour Me….. Sustainability is possibly one of the most misunderstood words in common usage. Social structure, particularly agent types, are powerful determinants of emergent SES patterns. The environment has become synonymous with “green” but we are more of a STS than an SES (something I’d like you to jot down for your Immersion Experience tomorrow).

4. Water is the Critical Piece Entering the “Century of Water” Most issues depend on water availability, distribution and/or quality. Transitions from common pool resource to trade commodity. Several “solutions” are not possible unless water is factored in.

5. Trends in Water Resources Also see White, Hinzman, Alessa, JGR Biogeosciences, 2007 Not just availability but also quality, we can only “clean” so well.

8. Dealing with Future Change Requires a Paradigm Shift in “Science” Growing evidence that technological interventions alone are not effective and may drive critical changes in water use patterns. -- Growing evidence that technological interventions alone are not effective and may drive critical changes in water use patterns. -- UN Commission on Sustainable Development (1995). 1. Our understanding of the social dynamics in social ecological systems is poor. 2. Our incorporation of scale is sloppy. 3. Our treatment of SES is oversimplified. These may represent some of our greatest vulnerabilities to effectively coping with change.

9. ArcticRIMS_UNH Scale

10. Alessa et al. 2009. In Press, Sustainability

11. Screen shot of SES types paper

12. How Could We Possibly Fail? Scale Messy Social Ecological Systems Underestimation of Social Dynamics Hubris: we will engineer a solution or ‘sustainability as a hobby’

14. Desire, Means Technology Perceptions, Values Exposure Networks Learning Vulnerable Resilient Resources Disasters/Conflicts Policies

15. Gaining an Edge:The Tools Social Ecological Hotspots Mapping. The Arctic Water Resources Vulnerability Index (AWRVI). Forecasting Environmental Resilience of Arctic Landscapes (FERAL). Map  Assess  Model

16. Social Ecological Systems Hotspot Mapping Takes social and biophysical values and uses GIS to map the coupled social ecological landscape. Gives us information about where specific dynamics exist. Was highlighted as innovative science by NSF in Spring 2008.

17. Screen shot of paper

20. Adapting to Change: AWRVI The Arctic Water Resources Vulnerability Index: AWRVI (“Ar-Vee”). Tool to assess status of water resources at the watershed scale. Unifies western and traditional knowledge systems. Can be used to determine resilience and best strategies for development. First and only of its kind for high latitudes and local scales.

21. Environmental Vulnerability Indices EVI: United Nations Environment Programme (2001). UN Commission on Sustainable Development (1995). Global Commission on Fresh Water Resources (2004). Water recognized as single-most important variable in rapid change.

24. Emergent tools agent-based models (ABM)

25. Agent Based Models Specify the rules of behavior of individuals (agents) as well as rules of interaction Simulate many agents using a computer model Explore the consequences of the agent- level rules on the population as a whole “Simple” models to produce complex behaviors “How could drops of water know themselves to be a river? Yet the river flows on” --Antoine du Sainte-Exupery

26. Agents and Systems agents have connections to each other, and form a system and operate in an environment with feedbacks agents behave autonomously thus they each have their own parameters (data) and behaviors systems change once the agents affect the threshold in a significant way

27. Agent Based Models Are not An attempt to perfectly reproduce reality (usually) Are Are a tool to gain intuition about the system of interest without needing to know all of the details A tool to run “experiments” which cannot be performed in real life A tool to generate and test hypotheses about what is occurring A tool to refine data collection foci

28. Big Questions What drives the human hydrological system? How do societies ‘overshoot’ their resources (both social and physical)? How can we learn to avoid this fate? (Should we? If so, why?) Move beyond rhetoric. Source: Alessa, Kliskey, and Altaweel. 2009, In Press, Sustainability

29. Desire, Means Technology Perceptions, Values Exposure Networks Learning Vulnerable Resilient Resources Disasters/Conflicts Policies

30. Forecasting Environmental Resilience of Arctic Landscapes (FERAL)

31. Developing “Real” Rules Too often, ABMs rely on ‘artificial’ rules (e.g., games). Or ….”what ifs”. It is critical that rules be derived from the messy, real world. Humans are not logical but they are predictable. "Man is a complex being; he makes the deserts bloom and lakes die." — Gil Stern

32. Developing Real Rules There are three rules of thumb to successfully developing rule sets for ABM. 1.Observe your system to the point of intimacy. 2.Establish colleagues in it who will assist you with field work and data collection. 3.Include modelers at the outset, not once you think it would be “nice” to model.

33. Screen shot of JASSS 2 paper

34. Your Immersion Experience Tomorrow you will go out into three “SES” (two being primarily “STS”). As yourself “who/what are the objects in the landscape” (e.g., people, terrain, interventions, others?). For each of these objects, what would you need to know about them to develop meaningful rule sets?

35. Applying Agent-Based Modeling Source: Altaweel, Alessa, and Kliskey, JASSS, Forthcoming

36. Values held toward water Source: Alessa, Kliskey, Williams. Society & Natural Resources. 2008.

37. Current Social ABM in FERAL Step 1: Assess water source selection process with observed trends and determine consequences of water selection choices.

38. Integrated Models: Example Runtime Output 2 River Discharge Quantity change belief Maximum Mean

39. How People Make Choices: Why We Need to Know This People make decisions according to their life experiences, social relationships, and perceptions of what is around them. Different people have different influence and goals that influences other people around them: three agent types, alpha, beta and gamma. A person’s ideas Person’s decision The thought process Social influence and behavior affects water use

40. Decision Making: Divisions in the Decision Process 1 25 10 Plot points show agents. Red=Reject Blue=Accept Different agent types affect whether decisions made result In collective or individual benefits Results show cliques forming and social position of those rejecting an idea.

41. Decision Making: Representation in Social Space 25 1 10 Social network representation of relationships. Over a few ticks, more people agree to accept the initial idea. However, this often occurs if leaders agree initially and coordinate their efforts. Black=Reject Light Blue=Accept 25 Negative Relationships

42. Changing Viewpoints: Effect on Decision Making Group vs. Individual goals

43. FERAL: White Mountain Scenario agent White Mountain Fish River Municipal Water source World Wind 3D visualization view

44. 10-Year Scenario: Travel To River agents White Mountain Fish River Agents concentrate at river sources nearest to White Mountain.

45. 10-Year Scenario: Tracking Total Movements Aggregate agent movements during each Time tick. Concentration of movements over entire simulation and time.

46. Municipal and non-municipal sources fluctuate seasonally. Colors in water sources indicate relative levels, blue colors indicate high volume, while red is lower volume. Colors in water sources indicate relative levels, blue colors indicate high volume, while red is lower volume. agents accessing the municipal source agents accessing the municipal source house icon varies in size based on population levels house icon varies in size based on population levels

47. 10-Year Scenario: Travel To River agents White Mountain Fish River

48. In: Alessa, Kliskey, Busey, Hinzman, White. Global Environmental Change, 2008. Evolution of Water Use on the Seward Peninsula

49. Take Home Messages Many of the challenges in sustainability are not ‘fixable’ using technologies or good will. Agents drive the system from the bottom up and some dynamics simply aren’t pretty. A powerful approach to understanding consequences is to use agent based models. ABMs allow the unpredictable outcomes of simple choices and changes in patterns of use to be visualized in virtual worlds.

50. Acknowledgements The RAM Group at UAA My colleagues at the International Arctic Research Center, and the Institute for Northern Engineering, UAF My colleagues at the Center for Social Dynamics and Complexity, Arizona State University Fabrice Renaud, Head, Environmental Assessment and Resource Vulnerability Section, United Nations University Volker Grimm, Director, Center for Environmental Research, Leipzig-Halle, Germany. The National Science Foundation.