Aberdeen City & Shire comprising Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire

Aberdeen City & Shire comprising Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire
RSA Forecasts Aberdeen City & Shire comprising Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire Evidence Base Team Glasgow

Contents Note on Oxford Economic definitions
Note on Oxford Economic Key Sector definitions Explanation of Thermometer Chart 1. Summary Indicators Gross Value Added (GVA), Gross Value Added (GVA), Scotland comparison, GVA by Industrial Sector, 2016 and 2024 GVA by Industrial Sector, change 2016 and 2024 GVA by Key Sector, 2016 and 2024 GVA by Key Sector, change 2016 and 2024 Productivity (GVA per job) Total Employment (jobs and people), Total Employment (jobs and people), Scotland comparison, Total Employment (jobs), gender and status,

3. Employment by Occupation
2. Employment by Sector Total Employment by industrial sector, 2016 and 2024 Total Employment by industrial sector, change 2016 and 2024 Top 20 industries (SIC 2) by employment, 2016 and 2024 Top 20 industries (SIC 2) by employment, change 2016 and 2024 Total Employment by key sector, 2016 and 2024 Total Employment by key sector, change 2016 and 2024 3. Employment by Occupation Total employment by occupation, 2016 and 2024 Total employment by occupation, change 2016 and 2024 Total employment by occupation (SIC 2), 2016 and 2024 Total employment by occupation (SIC 2), change 2016 and 2024 Total requirement by occupation, 2016 and 2024 Total requirement by occupation, change 2016 and 2024 Total requirement (2024): expansion and replacement demand Total requirement by occupation (SOC 2 digit), 2016 and 2024

3. Employment by Occupation (cont’d)
Total requirement by occupation (SOC 2 digit), 2016 and 2024 Total requirement by occupation (SOC 2 digit), change 2016 and 2024 Total requirement by occupation (SOC 2 digit), 2024 : expansion and replacement Demand: 4. Employment by Qualification Total employment by qualification, 2016 and 2024 Total employment by qualification, change 2016 and 2024 Total requirement by qualification (2024), expansion and replacement demand Appendix: Oxford Economics Key Sector Definitions

Note on Oxford Economic definitions
Oxford Economics classifies both Growth and Key Sectors as Key Sectors. Some of these Key Sectors are defined differently however to the Scottish Government Growth Sector and Skills Investment Plan definitions. The tables below highlight where this is so and the Appendix gives full details of how each key sector is defined by Oxford Economics . Section Variable Definition 1. Summary Indicators GVA The value of goods and services produced in an area. Total employment Workplace based Jobs; annual average. This includes anyone who is aged 16 and over who holds a job, whether as an employee, self-employed, Government Supported Trainee or within Her Majesty's Forces. Male full-time employment The number of full-time jobs (more than 30 hours per week), held by males. Male part-time employment The number of part-time jobs (30 hours or less per week), held by males. Female full-time employment The number of full-time jobs (more than 30 hours per week), held by females. Female part-time employment The number of part-time jobs (30 hours or less per week), held by females. Total employment (people) Total number of people aged 16 plus who work in an area. Productivity GVA per job; workplace based. GVA by sector The value of goods and services produced by each SIC 2007 based sector. Total employment by sector Workplace based jobs within each SIC 2007 based sector; annual average. 2. Employment by Sector Total employment by occupation The number of workers within each SOC 2010 based occupation grouping. The results are also presented on a workplace basis; annual average. 3. Employment by Occupation Expansion demand The net change in occupation employment over the forecast period and can therefore be a positive or negative figure. Replacement demand The sum of leavers from employment plus net occupation mobility and represents how many workers will be required at each level due to labour market churn. Total requirement The sum of expansion demand and replacement demand. 4. Employment by Qualification Total employment by qualification The number of workers within each SCQF qualification level. The results are also presented on a workplace basis; annual average. Expansion demand by qualification The net change in occupation employment by SCQF qualification level. Replacement demand by qualification The sum of leavers from employment plus net occupation mobility by SCQF qualification level. Total requirement by qualification The sum of expansion demand and replacement demand by SCQF qualification level. Occupation by qualification The number of workers within each SOC 2010 based occupation grouping and SCQF qualification level. The results are also presented on a workplace basis; annual average.

Note on Oxford Economic Key Sector definitions
Oxford Economics classifies both Growth and Key Sectors as Key Sectors. Some of these Key Sectors are defined differently however to the Scottish Government Growth Sector and Skills Investment Plan definitions. The tables below highlight where this is so and the Appendix gives full details of how each key sector is defined by Oxford Economics . Comparison of Oxford Economic and Scottish Government Definitions of Growth Sectors Oxford Economics Scottish Growth Sector Definition Same SIC Definition? Food & Drink Food and Drink (including agriculture and fisheries) Same Creative Industries1 Creative Industries (including digital) Different Tourism Sustainable Tourism (Tourism related Industries) Energy Energy (including renewables) Financial Services2 Financial & Business Services Life Sciences Comparison of Oxford Economic and Skills Investment Plan (SIP) Definitions of Key Sectors Oxford Economics Skills Investment Plan (SIP) Same SIC Definition? Business Services2 - Construction Same (including attributable activity proportions) Engineering Same Chemical Sciences Omits SIC Code 20.6 Manufacture of man made fibres ICT/Digitial1 Health and Social Care Same (comparative SIC definition taken from SIP Health & Care Scoping Report) Notes: 1. Oxford Economics have created a definition of the Creative Industries based on the UK Government Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) and therefore is different to the Scottish Government Growth Sector definition: the latter has used 59 SIC codes to define the Scottish Creative & Cultural Industries sector whereas Oxford Economic defines Creative industries and ICT/Digital separately, using 20 and 23 SIC codes respectively. 2. Although the Oxford Economic Key Sector Business Services definition is the same as the Business Services section of the Scottish Government’s Financial & Business Services, the Oxford Economic definition of Financial Services is more detailed (see Appendix for more detail).

Explanation of thermometer/bullet chart
Although most people are familiar with a grouped bar chart:... ... a thermometer (or bullet) chart shows both bars in one, enabling more space to be used, which is more practical when dealing with more cluttered charts, showing 2 digit SIC and SOC for example. The figures are the ‘thermometer’ and the 2024 figures act as the ‘mercury’. This enables a comparison to be made as to whether there has been a rise or fall compared with the 2016 baseline. And example is given below: 2024 figures less than 2016 2016 figure 2016 2024 figure 2024 figures more than 2016 2024 The actual change in the numbers between 2016 and 2024 is shown throughout on a separate slide. Large relative increases or decreases seen in isolation might not seem as relevant from an industry or occupation with an already high base (for example, with already high levels of employment). Having both charts facilitates this interpretation. Note 2016 figures represent a projection rather than actual data as the Oxford Economics forecasts were produced in 2015.

1. Summary Indicators

Gross Value Added (GVA), 2016-2024
Gross Value Added is defined as the value of goods and services produced in an area. GVA in Aberdeen City & Shire is projected to rise to £19,466 million in 2024, a rise of £2,567 million from 2016. £million, constant 2013 prices

Gross Value Added (GVA), Regional Comparison 2024
By way of comparison to the other twelve RSA regions, the forecast GVA £19,466 (2024) of Aberdeen City & Shire is projected to be the third largest contribution to the national economy, only behind the two main population regions of Glasgow Region (Glasgow City, East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire) and Edinburgh, East & Midlothian (Edinburgh City, East Lothian and Midlothian). £million, constant 2013 prices

Gross Value Added (GVA), Scotland comparison, 2016-2024
In comparison to Scotland, Aberdeen City & Shire is projected to show greater growth over in comparison to Scotland as a whole. Though more closely aligned in the past ( ), since 2008 there has been an increasing divergence with Aberdeen City & Shire showing greater relative growth, a gap that is forecast to remain fairly stable over the forecast period. Index, 2000 = 100

GVA by Industrial Sector, 2016 and 2024
Looking at economic contribution by sector, mining and quarrying and professional, scientific and technical activities show the greatest projected increases in 2024 of £3,489 and £3,266 million respectively, followed by wholesale and retail. (£2,267 million). All sectors are projected to increase from 2016 to 2024, with the exception of public administration and defence. £million, constant 2013 prices Note: Figures for all thermometer charts given for 2024 levels only

GVA by Industrial Sector, change 2016 and 2024
The previous showed the levels of GVA in 2016 and 2024; the following shows the changes between them. The greatest change by far in GVA levels in 2024 relative to the 2016 baselines is forecast to be in the professional, scientific and technical sector with an increase in GVA of £790 million. The wholesale and retail trade, mining and quarrying and real estate sectors are also forecasts to increase. The only sector forecast to fall in GVA is the public administration and defence sector. £million, constant 2013 prices

GVA by Key Sector, 2016 and 2024 Looking at Key Sectors1, Energy is forecast to contribute most to overall GVA in Aberdeen City & Shire in both 2016 and 2024 followed by Engineering and Construction. All key sectors in 2024 are projected to increase from their 2016 baseline. £million, constant 2013 prices * of which, Child day-care activities (SIC 88.91) = £27.5 million (2016); £31.5 million (2024) 1. See Appendix for the Oxford Economic definitions of Key Sectors and where they deviate from the Scottish Government and Skills Investment Plan definitions.

GVA by Key Sector, change 2016 and 2024
Looking at the changes between 2016 and 2024, Engineering is forecast to see the biggest projected increase, with an increase of £507 million. Business services, Energy and Construction also show relatively large increases. Chemical sciences is the only sector projected not to see an increase in GVA and, at further decimal places, actually forecast to see a slight decline (-£0.3 million). £million, constant 2013 prices * of which, Child day-care activities = £4 million (2016 and 2024) N.B. See Appendix for the Oxford Economic definitions of Key Sectors and where they deviate from the Scottish Government and Skills Investment Plan definitions.

Productivity (GVA per job), 2016-2024
Productivity in Aberdeen City & Shire is projected to be higher than the overall Scottish average, rising from £51,000 in 2016 per job to £58,400 in 2024. Index, 2000 = 100 £000s, constant 2013 prices Note: GVA = GVA per job; workplace based.

Productivity (GVA per job), 2024: Regional comparison
Productivity can be measured as the ratio of regional GVA to the number of jobs in the region. In other words, how much GVA is created per job. In 2024, Aberdeen City & Shire is projected have the highest productivity of the RSA regions. With national productivity projected to be at £49,700 (49.7) in 2024 (see previous slide), there are only three regions forecast to contribute above this. Scotland (2024) = 49.7 £000s, constant 2013 prices Note: GVA = GVA per job; workplace based.. For further information on productivity at a regional level, see:

Total Employment (jobs and people), 2016-2024
Total employment can be measured in terms of numbers of jobs or numbers of people. Strictly speaking, the concept of employment (measured as the number of people in work) differs from the concept of jobs, since a person can have more than one job, and some jobs may be shared by more than one person1. Both total employment (jobs) and total employment (people) are relatively flat, projected to see a modest increase of 1,000 jobs each over the forecast period, , in comparison to a rising trend for both over the period. ‘000s 1. See for example:

Total Employment (jobs and people) Scotland comparison 2016-2024
When we compare Aberdeen City & Shire to the national average, greater jobs growth is forecast over to Scotland despite the relatively static projections for both. Note that an index of number of 117 and 123 (projected for Aberdeen City & Shire below in 2024) does not mean that there will be less jobs than people (see previous slide) but that relative to the year 2000 (index = 100), employment as the number of people in work shows greater growth (2016: 296,150 people; 2024: 297,210 people) than numbers of jobs (2016: 331,520; 2024: 333,100). Total Employment (jobs), Total Employment (people), Index, 2000 = 100

Total Employment (jobs), gender and job status, 2016-2024
By 2024, males are projected to work mainly in full-time jobs (165,500) and far less in part-time jobs (23,300), a continuance of existing trends. The share of females jobs is less pronounced: in for example (figures only shown for 2016 and 2024 in chart), female part-time jobs (70,076) narrowly outnumbered female full-time jobs (68,879) although Oxford Economics forecast that the trend will be for this to separate out in favour of more female full-time jobs. ‘000s

2. Employment by sector

Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector, 2016 and 2024
The three main industrial sectors in Aberdeen City & Shire in terms of projected levels of jobs in 2024 are Professional, scientific and technical (51,000 jobs), Wholesale and retail (41,000 jobs) and Human health and social work (38,700 jobs). Administrative and support service activities is also forecast to grow relative to its 2016 baseline in addition to Construction. Not all sectors are projected to grow however, including Mining and quarrying, Manufacturing and Public administration and defence. 000’s

Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector, change 2016-2024
The actual changes in job levels between 2016 and 2024 can be seen below. The Professional, scientific and technical sector is projected to see a rise of 4,400 jobs, which relative to its initial 2016 levels (46,600 jobs), represents a 9% increase. Administrative and support services (2,900 more jobs) and Construction (1,700) are also projected to see increases, representing proportional increases of 8% and 13% respectively. By contrast, Manufacturing and Mining and quarrying are projected to see a loss of 3,200 and 5,900 jobs respectively, a percentage decline of 11% and 18%. 000’s

Top 20 industries sub sectors (SIC 2 digit) by employment (jobs), 2016 and 2024
Breaking industrial sectors down from 1 digit SIC (see previous slide) into 2 digit SIC results in 85 sub sectors. The Top 20 sub sectors in terms of levels of jobs in 2024 are therefore detailed below only. At a sub sectoral level, Architectural and engineering has the highest level of jobs (both 2016 and 2024) as well as greatest increase in jobs (see following slide). In terms of projected levels in 2024 then , Architectural and engineering , the Retail trade and Human health activities are all forecast to have the highest job levels with 30,500, 26,600 and 24,900 jobs respectively. Mining support service activities and the Extraction of crude petroleum sub sectors are the most conspicuous in terms of lack of growth in 2024. 000’s

Top 20 industries (SIC 2 digit) by employment (jobs), change 2016 and 2024
Looking at growth in job levels at a sub sectoral level then, Architectural and engineering is forecast to see the biggest increase (2,600 jobs), followed by Service to buildings and landscape (1,100 jobs) and Specialised construction activities (1,000 jobs). Mining support service activities and Extraction of crude petroleum by contrast are projected to see losses of 3,000 jobs and 2,800 jobs respectively in addition to Public administration and defence, with a loss of 1,200 jobs. 000’s

Total employment (jobs) by key sector, 2016 and 2024
When we look at employment by Key Sector in Aberdeen City & Shire, Engineering has the highest levels of jobs (both in 2016 and ) as well as seeing a slight increase in Although the Energy sector has the second highest levels of jobs in 2016 (43,507), this is no longer the case in 2024 (38,600) and the sector is forecast to show the biggest decrease jobs in 2024 relative to the 2016 baseline figure (see following slide for details). Construction, Health and social care and Business services are also expected to see an increase of job levels relative to their 2016 figures 000’s

Total employment by key sector, change 2016 and 2024
The projected drop in jobs levels in the Energy sector can be seen below, with a decrease of 4,900 jobs forecast in 2024 relative to levels, which represents a 13% percentage decrease. Business services and Construction by contrast are expected to see the largest increase in jobs, with 2,900 and 2,700 respectively. It should be borne in mind however that even with the largest decrease of all Key Sectors, the Energy sector is still expected to offer similar levels of jobs to Construction and Health and social care and 7,700 more jobs than Business Services (see previous slide). Levels (previous slide) and changes in those levels (current slide) need to be compared therefore. 000’s

3. Employment by occupation

Total employment (people)1 by occupation, 2016 and 2024
In this section, we break down employment1 by occupational category. In Aberdeen City & Shire the highest levels of people employed are projected to be in the Professional Occupations. (63,000 people). These high levels of Professional Occupations i.e. SOC 2 (21% of overall people in employment) are only behind Glasgow Region (24%) and Edinburgh, East and Midlothian (27%). After which, people are concentrated in the Skilled trades (43,100 people), Associate professional and technical occupations (38,900 people) and then Elementary occupations (33,300). Elementary occupations represent 11% of people employed, which, compared to the other RSA region is one of the lowest, with only Glasgow Region and Edinburgh, East & Midlothian lower (both 8% of people employed). 000’s 1. Note that in this section, following the Oxford Economic forecast data, we look at employment as measured by the number of people in work as opposed to numbers of jobs as per the previous section.

Total employment by occupation change, 2016 and 2024
The change in the levels of occupational categories between 2016 and 2024 are shown below. Elementary occupations are forecast to see the biggest increase in 2024 compared to 2016 levels, rising by 1,300 extra jobs. Caring, leisure and other service as well as sales and customer service occs are also projected to see increases of 900 and 700 jobs respectively. From their respective 2016 bases though (of 24,800 and 23,700), these increases are relatively modest:, with a 4% increase in Caring, leisure and other service occs; a 3 % increase in Sales and customer service; and, for Elementary occs, a 4% increase. Decreases, by contrast, are expected in Skilled trades occs and Process, plan & machine ops. ’000s

Top, Middle and Bottom of Labour market, 2024
As the Standard Occupational Classification categorises occupations on the basis of their skills level and content, we can group the nine categories into three: higher, intermediate and lower skilled jobs. The first category is often seen as a proxy for graduate jobs (see note below). On this basis, Aberdeen City & Shire has a higher proportion of graduate jobs and lower proportions of occupations in the middle and bottom end of the labour market relative to the other regions. ‘Graduate’1 jobs (SOC 1-3) Middle (SOC 4-7) Bottom (SOC 9) Notes: 1. See Scottish Government Definitions section: 2. Graduate (Managers, directors and senior officials; Professional occupations; Associate professional and technical), Middle (Administrative & Secretarial; Skilled Trades; Caring, leisure & other service occs; Sales & customer service occs; Process, plant & machine ops); Bottom (Elementary occs) 3. Numerator = total regional employment by occupation (people); Denominator = total regional employment (people) 4. 4. Total projected jobs (2024) in the Aberdeen City & Shire Region (297,200)

Total employment (people) by occupation (2 digit SOC), 2016 and 2024
When we break the Standard Occupational Classification down further into two digits, Elementary Clerical and Services related occs have the highest levels (2016 and 2024) and the biggest projected increase. There are, however, high levels of Science & technology professionals , Business and Public Service professionals as well as Administrative occs and Skilled and Metal and Electrical Trades, although the latter shows a decrease between 2016 and 2024. ’000s

Total employment (people) by occupation (2 digit SOC), change 2016 and 2024
As noted in the previous slide, the biggest increase is seen in Elementary Clerical and Services related occs, with a projected rise of 1,500 jobs. Skilled Metal and Electrical Trades are projected to see the biggest decrease in 2024, with a decline of 1,400 jobs relative to their 2016 baseline. ’000s

Total requirement (people), 2016-2024
We now move from total employment to total requirement; that is, instead of overall numbers employed, we look at the numbers of positions that are forecast to open up, mainly due to people retiring but also net migration and movement into other occupations (i.e. known as replacement demand) as well as those that open up due to new, additional positions being created (expansion demand). The overall trends in Aberdeen City & Shire over are shown below. Replacement demand is projected to be far more important in terms of actual levels of requirement than expansion demand (see also Slide 37 as regards occupational requirements). In the Oxford Economics forecasting model, replacement and expansion demand are mirror images of each other: with replacement demand falling, after a peak in 2017, before starting to level out somewhat from 2022; expansion demand being the inverse and actually negative from (i.e. the number of people required shrinks rather than grows). The total requirement then in 2024 is forecast to be 9,700 people, driven by replacement demand and, overall, remaining fairly stable between 2016 and 2024 (500 more people required compared to 2016). ‘000s

Total requirement (people) by occupation, 2016 and 2024
In terms of the total numbers of positions required, Professional occupations, although with similar levels to Elementary occupations in 2016, are forecast to increase more in Elementary occupations shows a slight increase, which means it has the second highest levels of occupations in Aberdeen City & Shire. With the exception of Admin & Secretarial occs, the middle of the occupational structure is projected to decline, Skilled trades and Caring, leisure and other service occs in particular. Associate, professional and technical occs also show a large increase relative to its 2016 levels although, overall, its levels in 2024 are still less than some of the declining occupational categories. ’000s

Total requirement (people) by occupation, change 2016 and 2024
The changes in the projected levels of 2024 occupations relative to their 2016 baseline is given below. As per the previous slide, there are forecast increases at the top of the occupational structure, notably in Professional and Associate professional occs, and a decline in the levels of the middle relative to their 2016 baselines. ’000s Note: the difference in Professional occs (0.54) and Associate professional & technical occs (0.46) due to rounding to 1 decimal place.

Total Requirement (2024): expansion and replacement demand
In terms of overall requirement, replacement demand is the main driver of jobs levels in 2024, with some small levels of expansion demand in Professional , Caring, leisure and other service and Elementary occs. The increases in Associate professional & technical occs in 2024 relative to 2016 are driven almost solely by replacement demand. Process, plant and machine operatives is the only occupational category with a forecast loss of occupations, resulting in a small positive total requirement (100 occupations) when replacement demand is factored in. ‘000s (people) Data labels show Total Requirement only

Total requirement (people) by occupation (2 digit SOC), 2016 and 2024
Breaking down the occupations to the two digit level, Elementary Clerical and Services occupations are projected to have the highest levels of occupations in Sales Occupations and Teaching and Research Professionals will also retain relatively high levels, although both will decrease relative to their 2016 baseline. Science and Technology Professionals and Science and Technology Associate Professionals are projected to see large increases relative to their 2016 levels. ’000s

Total requirement (people) by occupation (2 digit SOC), change 2016 and 2024
The increases in Science and Technology Professional and Science and Technology Associate Professionals are shown below, increases of 700 and 300 occupations respectively. In addition, Corporate Managers and Business and Business and Public Service Associate Professionals are also expected to see increases. The declines in the intermediate occupational categories can also be noted. ’000s

Total requirement (2 digit SOC), 2024: expansion and replacement demand
Once again, total requirement in 2024 is driven by replacement demand. There are some forecast losses of occupations in Science and Technology Associate Professionals, Skilled Metal and Electrical Trades and Process, Plant & Machine Operatives. The clustering of higher level occupations is apparent as well as high levels of requirement further down the structure, with Sales Occupations and Elementary Clerical and Service Occupations showing highest levels of total requirement in 2024 when disaggregated to the two digit SOC level, with both an increase in expansion and replacement demand. ‘000s people Data labels show Total Requirement only

4. Employment by qualifications

Total employment (people) by qualification, 2016 and 2024
By far, the largest levels of projected employment in Aberdeen City & Shire (118,000) lie with people having SCQF 7-10 qualifications, levels which are forecast to increase. Taken together, SCQF 5 & 6 would represent smaller but comparable levels (106,700 as opposed to 118,000) with similar demand at the highest levels of qualifications (31,600 occupations) and lowest (31,100 occupations). The lowest demand is for those with no qualifications. ’000s

Total employment (people) by qualification, change 2016 and 2024
In 2024, there is an expected increase of 4,500 and 2,200 occupations for SCQF 7-10 and SCQF respectively, perhaps reflecting a trend towards higher skills in Aberdeen City & Shire although this needs to be seen alongside high levels of intermediate (SCQF 5 & 6) qualifications, albeit forecast to decrease. These decreases of 2,500 and 500 occupations represent fairly modest proportional decreases of 4% and 1% from the SCQF 6 and SCQF baselines (55,500 and 54,200 occupations). These trends to higher skills might also be considered alongside the previous section (3. Employment by Occupation), where there was still relatively high projected demand in elementary and intermediate (Skilled Trades and Customer Service and Sales) occupations. ’000s

Total requirement (people) by qualification (2024): expansion and replacement demand
Finally, we break down the total projected number of people required in 2024 in Aberdeen City & Shire into its components of expansion and replacement demand. The latter can be clearly seen as the main driver of employment across all SCQF levels. Losses in occupations are expected in 2024 below the SCQF and 7-10 levels, with those occupations that would normally require SCQF 6 and SCQF 1-4 level qualifications forecast to see bigger relative losses. For all levels however, replacement demand results in an overall net positive figure predicted for employment levels across the qualification bands. Again, intermediate levels (SCQF 5 & 6) can be seen to decrease in 2024 although, as stated, together they still represent relatively high levels of requirement (25,700 people) or 30% of the overall total requirement (86,600). SCQF 5 here is forecast to see a higher requirement than SCQF 6. There is also forecast demand for 7,600 people in 2024 with no qualifications, greater than the levels of SCQF 1-4 (1,700 people). It is also worth comparing these projected qualification levels with projected levels of GVA by industrial sector (see Slides 11 and 12) as well as total requirement by occupational category (Slides 35, 37 & 38) in order to see to what extent they align. ’000s Data labels show Total Requirement only

Appendix

Appendix: Oxford Economics Key Sector Definitions
As stated in the introductory slide, Note on Oxford Economic Key Sector definitions, some of the Oxford Economic definitions of the Growth and Key Sectors differ from the Scottish Government definitions and this should be borne in mind when interpreting the figures. The actual definitions Oxford Economics have used are detailed below: 1. Business Services SIC 2007 code Description Attributable Activity Business Services 69.1 Legal activities 100% 69.2 Accounting, bookkeeping and auditing activities; tax consultancy 70.2 Management consultancy activities 71.12/9 Other engineering activities (not including engineering design for industrial process and production or engineering related scientific and technical consulting activities) 73.2 Market research and public opinion polling 74.3 Translation and interpretation activities 78.10/9 Activities of employment placement agencies (other than motion picture, television and other theatrical casting) n.e.c. 78.3 Other human resources provision 82.1 Office administrative and support activities 82.2 Activities of call centres 82.3 Organisation of conventions and trade shows 82.91 Activities of collection agencies and credit bureaus 82.99 Other business support service activities n.e.c.

Appendix: Oxford Economics Key Sector Definitions (cont’d)
2. Chemical Sciences SIC 2007 code Description Attributable Activity Chemical Sciences 20.11 Manufacture of industrial gases 100% 20.12 Manufacture of dyes and pigments 20.13 Manufacture of other inorganic basic chemicals 20.14 Manufacture of other organic basic chemicals 20.15 Manufacture of fertilisers and nitrogen compounds 20.16 Manufacture of plastics in primary forms 20.17 Manufacture of synthetic rubber in primary forms 20.20 Manufacture of pesticides and other agrochemical products 20.30/1 Manufacture of paints, varnishes and similar coatings, mastics and sealants 20.30/2 Manufacture of printing ink 20.41/1 Manufacture of soap and detergents 20.41/2 Manufacture of cleaning and polishing preparations 20.51 Manufacture of explosives 20.52 Manufacture of glues 20.53 Manufacture of essential oils 20.59 Manufacture of other chemical products n.e.c. 21.1 Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products 21.2 Manufacture of pharmaceutical preparations

3. Creative Industries SIC 2007 code Description Attributable Activity Creative industries 62.01/1 Ready-made interactive leisure and entertainment software development 100% 62.01/2 Business and domestic software development 62.02 Computer consultancy activities 63.91 News agency activities 71.11 Architectural activities 71.12/1 Engineering design activities for industrial process and production 73.11 Advertising agencies 73.12 Media representation 74.1 Specialised design activities 74.20/1 Portrait photographic activities 74.20/2 Other specialist photography (not including portrait photography) 74.20/9 Other photographic activities (not including portrait and other specialist photography and film processing) n.e.c. 78.10/1 Motion picture, television and other theatrical casting 85.52 Cultural education 90.01 Performing arts 90.02 Support activities to performing arts 90.03 Artistic creation 90.04 Operation of arts facilities 91.01/1 Library activities 95.24 Repair of furniture and home furnishings

4. Construction SIC 2007 code Description Attributable Activity Construction 02.2 Logging 20% 08.11 Quarrying of ornamental and building stone, limestone, gypsum, chalk and slate 70% 08.12 Operation of gravel and sand pits; mining of clays and kaolin 16.23 Manufacture of other builders' carpentry and joinery 40% 20.30/1 Manufacture of paints, varnishes and similar coatings, mastics and sealants 25% 20.30/2 Manufacture of printing ink 22.11 Manufacture of rubber tyres and tubes; retreading and rebuilding of rubber tyres 22.19 Manufacture of other rubber products 22.23 Manufacture of builders’ ware of plastic 35% 23.32 Manufacture of bricks, tiles and construction products, in baked clay 85% 23.41 Manufacture of ceramic household and ornamental articles 60% 23.42 Manufacture of ceramic sanitary fixtures 23.43 Manufacture of ceramic insulators and insulating fittings 23.44 Manufacture of other technical ceramic products 23.49 Manufacture of other ceramic products 23.51 Manufacture of cement 23.52 Manufacture of lime and plaster 23.61 Manufacture of concrete products for construction purposes 90% 23.62 Manufacture of plaster products for construction purposes 23.63 Manufacture of ready-mixed concrete 23.64 Manufacture of mortars 23.65 Manufacture of fibre cement 23.69 Manufacture of other articles of concrete, plaster and cement 25.11 Manufacture of metal structures and parts of structures 25.12 Manufacture of doors and windows of metal 25.21 Manufacture of central heating radiators and boilers 25.29 Manufacture of other tanks, reservoirs and containers of metal 25.3 Manufacture of steam generators, except central heating hot water boilers 26.11 Manufacture of electronic components 41.10 Development of building projects 100%

4. Construction (cont’d) SIC 2007 code Description Attributable Activity Construction (cont'd) 41.20/1 Construction of commercial buildings 100% 41.20/2 Construction of domestic buildings 42.11 Construction of roads and motorways 42.12 Construction of railways and underground railways 42.13 Construction of bridges and tunnels 42.21 Construction of utility projects for fluids 42.22 Construction of utility projects for electricity and telecommunications 42.91 Construction of water projects 42.99 Construction of other civil engineering projects n.e.c. 43.11 Demolition 43.12 Site preparation 43.13 Test drilling and boring 43.21 Electrical installation 43.22 Plumbing, heat and air-conditioning installation 43.29 Other construction installation 43.31 Plastering 43.32 Joinery installation 43.33 Floor and wall covering 43.34/1 Painting 43.34/2 Glazing 43.39 Other building completion and finishing 43.91 Roofing activities 43.99/1 Scaffold erection 43.99/9 Specialised construction activities (other than scaffold erection) n.e.c. 46.13 Agents involved in the sale of timber and building materials 50% 46.63 Wholesale of mining, construction and civil engineering machinery 46.73 Wholesale of wood, construction materials and sanitary equipment 71.11/1 Architectural activities 71.11/2 Urban planning and landscape architectural activities 71.12/1 Engineering design activities for industrial process and production 71.12/2 Engineering related scientific and technical consulting activities 71.12/9 Other engineering activities (not including engineering design for industrial process and production or engineering related scientific and technical consulting activities) 74.90/2 Quantity surveying activities

4. Construction (cont’d) SIC 2007 code Description Attributable Activity Energy 05 Mining of coal and lignite 100% 06 Extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas 09 Mining support service activities 19 Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products 20.14 Manufacture of other organic basic chemicals 35 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 36 Water collection, treatment and supply 38.22 Treatment and disposal of hazardous waste 71.12/2 Engineering related scientific and technical consulting activities 74.90/1 Environmental consulting activities

5. Energy SIC 2007 code Description Attributable Activity Energy 05 Mining of coal and lignite 100% 06 Extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas 09 Mining support service activities 19 Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products 20.14 Manufacture of other organic basic chemicals 35 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 36 Water collection, treatment and supply 38.22 Treatment and disposal of hazardous waste 71.12/2 Engineering related scientific and technical consulting activities 74.90/1 Environmental consulting activities

6. Engineering SIC 2007 code Description Attributable Activity Engineering 24 Manufacture of basic metals 100% 25 Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 26 Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products 27 Manufacture of electrical equipment 28 Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. 29 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 30 Manufacture of other transport equipment 33 Repair and installation of machinery and equipment 71 Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis 72.19 Other research and experimental development on natural sciences and engineering 13.94 Manufacture of cordage, rope, twine and netting 38.31 Dismantling of wrecks

7. Financial Services SIC 2007 code Description Attributable Activity Financial Services 64.1 Monetary intermediation 100% 64.3 Trusts, funds and similar financial entities 64.91 Financial leasing 64.92 Other credit granting 64.99/1 Security dealing on own account 64.99/2 Factoring 64.99/9 Other financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding, (not including security dealing on own account and factoring) n.e.c. 65.11 Life insurance 65.12 Non-life insurance 65.20/1 Life reinsurance 65.20/2 Non-life reinsurance 65.3 Pension funding 66.1 Activities auxiliary to financial services, except insurance and pension funding 66.3 Fund management activities 66.2 Activities auxiliary to insurance and pension funding

8. Food and drink SIC 2007 code Description Attributable Activity Food and Drink 01 Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities 100% 03 Fishing and aquaculture 10 Manufacture of food products 11 Manufacture of beverages

9. Health and social care SIC 2007 code Description Attributable Activity Health and Social Care 86.1 Hospital activities 100% 86.21 General medical practice activities 86.22 Specialist medical practice activities 86.23 Dental practice activities 86.9 Other human health activities 87.1 Residential nursing care activities 87.2 Residential care activities for learning disabilities, mental health and substance abuse 87.3 Residential care activities for the elderly and disabled 87.9 Other residential care activities 88.1 Social work activities without accommodation for the elderly and disabled 88.91 Child day-care activities 88.99 Other social work activities without accommodation n.e.c.

10. ICT/Digital SIC 2007 code Description Attributable Activity ICT/Digital 18.20/3 Reproduction of computer media 100% 26.11 Manufacture of electronic components 26.12 Manufacture of loaded electronic boards 26.20 Manufacture of computers and peripheral equipment 26.30 Manufacture of communication equipment 26.40 Manufacture of consumer electronics 26.8 Manufacture of magnetic and optical media 27.31 Manufacture of fibre optic cables 58.21 Publishing of computer games 58.29 Other software publishing 61.1 Wired telecommunications activities 61.2 Wireless telecommunications activities 61.3 Satellite telecommunications activities 61.9 Other telecommunications activities 62.01 Computer programming activities 62.02 Computer consultancy activities 62.03 Computer facilities management activities 62.09 Other information technology and computer service activities 63.11 Data processing, hosting and related activities 63.12 Web portals 63.99 Other information service activities n.e.c. 95.11 Repair of computers and peripheral equipment 95.12 Repair of communication equipment

11. Life Sciences SIC 2007 code Description Attributable Activity 21 Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations 100% 26.6 Manufacture of irradiation, electromedical and electrotherapeutic equipment 32.5 Manufacture of medical and dental instruments and supplies 72.11 Research and experimental development on biotechnology 72.19 Other research and experimental development on natural sciences and engineering

12. Tourism SIC 2007 code Description Attributable Activity Tourism 55.1 Hotels and similar accommodation 100% 55.2 Holiday and other short-stay accommodation 55.3 Camping grounds, recreational vehicle parks and trailer parks 56.1 Restaurants and mobile food service activities 56.3 Beverage serving activities 79.12 Tour operator activities 79.9 Other reservation service and related activities 91.02 Museum activities 91.03 Operation of historical sites and buildings and similar visitor attractions 91.04 Botanical and zoological gardens and nature reserve activities 93.11 Operation of sports facilities 93.19/9 Other sports activities (not including activities of racehorse owners) n.e.c. 93.21 Activities of amusement parks and theme parks 93.29 Other amusement and recreation activities

Scottish Growth Sector Definitions: Engineering SIP definition: Construction SIP definition: Chemical Sciences definition: Health and Social Care definition: internal report

Aberdeen City & Shire comprising Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire

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Aberdeen City & Shire comprising Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire

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