1. EcoForecast.eu 8 years of operational air quality forecasting for Central Europe
Jacek W. Kaminski1
Joanna Struzewska2
Pawel Durka3,4
1 Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences
2 Warsaw University of Technology, Poland
3 Institute of Environmental Protection, Poland
4 Ecoforecast Foundation

2. Outline GEM-AQ model heritage and description
Operational system development
EcoForecast.eu
Web portal
System configuration
High resolution forecast
Evaluation statistics
Evaluation plots

3. GEM-AQ model heritage ADOM – Acid Deposition and Oxidant Model – 1980s
CHRONOS – Canadian Hemispheric and Regional Ozone and NOx System model – 1990s (Pudykiewicz et al., 1997)
MAQNet – (2001 to 2008) funded by CFCAS
MC2-AQ – Mesoscale Compressible Community
model with Air Quality – published in 2002
GEM-AQ – published in 2008
International collaborators (UKMET & WUT members of MAQNet)
Post-MAQNet
GEM-MARS – since 2009 at IASB Belgium
GEM-Clim-strato (Jeniffer Beale, PhD at York U. awarded 2016)
e-GEM (F region ~250km, extending to 15 Re) – by 2020
MAQNet – Multiscale Air Quality Modelling Network 2001 – 2008
CFCAS – Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Science 2000 – 2012

4. GEM-AQ model description
GEM – Global Environmental Multiscale model (Côté et al., 1998)
Canadian operational weather forecast model
Grid configuration allows for calculations in variable resolutions
Built-in option for a limited area (LAM) consistent cascade calculations
GEM-AQ (Kaminski et al., 2008)
On-line tropospheric chemistry (extended ADOM II mechanism)
Gas-phase chemistry – 50 species
Hydrocarbons aggregation(lumped molecular approach)
116 chemical reactions, including 19 photochemical reactions – reaction constants dependent on temperature and pressure
chemical transformations typical of the troposphere
Dry deposition and washout
On-line sectional aerosol module
Used at WUT since 2003, development, research and operational air quality forecasting

5. Motivation – operational forecast
Need for a unified national air quality forecasting system
COST ES0602 action (2007 – 2011) Towards a European Network on Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information Systems
Action objectives:
Supporting the development of a chemical weather prognostic systems, international cooperation and data exchange between European countries
J. Struzewska and J.W. Kamiński in the management committee

6. Operational system development
COST ES0602 action (2007 – 2011) – Experimental in 2008, semi-operational in 2009, national forecast launched in 2010
Chemical weather – multiscale air quality forecasting system for Poland, grant nr 754/N-COST/2010/0 , WUT,
Establishment of the EcoForecast Foundation at the of the grant
One of the statutory objectives is to inform the public about air quality by providing a daily forecast for Poland and Europe
A strategic cooperation agreement with Warsaw University of Technology
National ozone forecast for Poland in 2013 – 2018; contract from The Chief Inspectorate of Environmental Protection
Several contracts with local and regional public authorities
Consulting for industry
Part of Poland-AOD Network (radiation and aerosol measurements)

7. EcoForecast.eu web portal
One of the statutory objectives of the EcoForecast Foundation is to inform the public about air quality by providing a daily forecast for Poland and Europe

8. AQ Index

9. Over 300 μg/m3

10. Over 200 μg/m3

11. EcoForecast.eu at ~5km
72h forecast for gaseous species and particulate matter: O3, NO2, SO2, CO, PM10,PM2.5
Air quality index for three days
– part of Poland-AOD network (
Presented maps:
Daily maximum (all pollutants)
8-hour running average(O3, CO)
Daily average (SO2, NO2, PM10,PM2.5)

12. System configuration Base forecast Nested forecast
Global variable grid with dx~15km over Central Europe
28 vertical levels up to 10 hPa, 10 layers below 2km
78 hour forecast – starting 18:00 UTC the day before, 6 hour spin-up
Time step 400 s
Nested forecast
uniform grid (200 x 200) dx~5km centred over Poland
72 hour forecast – starting 00 UTC
Time step 90 s
IC/BC from the GV run

13. 0.125 deg
0.05deg

14. High resolution forecast

15. Multi-year evaluation (2010-2016)
               MBE   RMSE  CORR
NO2           2.3       5.8      0.75
PM10      -11.4      36.5      0.50
Osieczow – NO2
MBE   RMSE  CORR
2.3       5.8   0.75
Belsk – O3
MBE   RMSE  CORR
-1.3    18.6   0.71
Krakow – PM10
MBE   RMSE  CORR
-11.4   36.5   0.50

16. PM2.5 forecast – chemical composition
Evaluation based on 24-h prog. for 2014

17. Urban parameterization in the operation forecast
ACP, Struzewska and Kaminski, 2012

18. Comparison with satellites and emission validation
Acta Geophysica, Szymankiewicz et al
Average tropospheric NO2 column for June

19. Evaluation of ozone profiles
Model
Observations
ACP, Struzewska and Kaminski, 2008
Modelled and observed ozone partial pressure (mPa) at Legionowo for the period

20. AOD forecast (polandaod.pl)
GEM-AQ forecast of:
Radiation flux
nm and nm
Extinction profiles for stations location
March-September 2016

21. CAMS_50 Regional production
GEM-AQ is one of three additional models for CAMS_50 (sub-contract from Meteo-France)
Setup consistent with the operational requirements (IFS, C-IFS forcing, emissions TNO-MACCIII + GFAS)
GEM-AQ LAM domain
CAMS regional domain
CAMS – Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service

22. CAMS_50 Regional production
Hindcast experiment from to
Validation using EEA observations for O3, NO2, SO2, CO, PM10, PM2.5
Dla wszystkich stacji

23. GEM-AQ future developments
National ozone forecast – assimilation of surface ozone in 2017
Regional forecast for Malopolska/Krakow –assimilation of surface PM10 in 2017 (at 2.5 km resolution)
CAMS_50 in 2017
Implementation of pollen forecast
Demonstration of assimilation capabilities
Data assimilation of Sentinel 5p, 5, and 4 satellite products and radiances