1. Feasibility to include forest fire emission rates in operational air quality model
Jacques Rousseau & Dr David Lavoué
Team members : Gilles Morneau Nedka Pentcheva
Montréal, July 7, 2002
Environnement Environment Canada Canada
AQRB project, Mid-term Review, October 26, 2004

2. Short term objectives Long term objectives
Feasibility to include forest fire emission rate in air quality model : A case study
Long term objectives
Integrate in real time emission rates from forest fire with a dynamic model in order to simulate adequately wildfire in air quality model to improve air quality forecast on daily basis

3. Methodology
Case study : Major wild forest fires over northern Quebec region from June 28 to July 15, 2002
Data acquisition different sites of forest fire identify during the event Hourly PM2.5 data : 47 Can. & 24 USA stations
Process - Build hourly PM2.5 emission rate for all forest fire sites entry of emission rate in CHRONOS model - Run CHRONOS with and without forest fire emission rate
Results - Output Model comparison with PM2.5 observations

4. Quebec Fires in 2002
July 1
Emissions(X) = A x (ß x B) x EF(X)

5. Elapsed time since ignition (hours) Area burned (hectares)
sigmoidal growth
Hourly Area Burned
Elapsed time since ignition (hours)
Area burned (hectares)
diurnal variability

6. Hourly PM2.5 Emissions
Average and constant fuel consumption amount by ecoregion
Total = 355 Gg of PM2.5
Max ~ 3000 t of PM2.5 /hour
July 9

7. July 6, 2002 Terra MODIS 1546-1553 UTC (NASA)
CHRONOS control run 16Z July 6
CHRONOS with forest fire emission
(µg/m3)

8. Cross section from Toronto to Ottawa (µg/m3)
3000
2000
1000
Sfc
(m)
Cross section from Toronto to Ottawa
(µg/m3)

9. July 7, 2002 Terra MODIS 1629-1641 UTC (NASA)
CHRONOS with forest fire emission
CHRONOS control run 16Z July 6
(µg/m3)

10. (µg/m3)

11. July 8, 2002 Terra MODIS 1629-1641 UTC (NASA)
CHRONOS with forest fire emission
CHRONOS control run 16Z July 8
(µg/m3)

12. Cross section Maine - New Brunswick (West to East)
3000
2000
1000
Sfc
(m)
Cross section Maine - New Brunswick (West to East)

13. Results Ontario 20% Québec 30% Maritimes 25% U.S.A. 25%
Forest fire emission Model control Data Observations Model control
Improvement =
Results
Test others vertical distribution of emission rate at fire sites
Adequacy of PM2.5 dispersion in GEM-CHRONOS
Study PM2.5 deposition mechanism in CHRONOS
x 100

14. Improvement of the Emissions
weather records from single site in fire region
gridded fire behavior with GEM
implement Canadian FWI and FBP systems to determine hourly fuel consumption and rate of spread

15. Hourly Fuel Consumption
fuel consumption variability with hourly FWI and FBP systems
Hourly Fuel Consumption
June
July
Average for central QC

16. Hourly PM2.5 Emissions 7 July New max ~ 3500 t of PM2.5 /hour + 30 %
New total = 370 Gg of PM2.5
New max ~ 3500 t of PM2.5 /hour
7 July
+ 30 %

17. Future Work
Create database of different emission rates based on different type of forest fires and vegetation over Canada and USA
Develop protocol for real-time data acquisition of wildfire events
Develop a tool to transform forest fire data into hourly emission rates with dynamic model
Develop a tool to integrate field emission rates from forest fire into CHRONOS model
Validation of the whole process with cases studies
Reporting the results