1. The Effect of An Aging Population The Case of the United States and the Demography of the Rest of the World

2. Summary of Trends The Total Population of the Globe continues to grow, and has enough growth in the system to take us to 10 billion.The Total Population of the Globe continues to grow, and has enough growth in the system to take us to 10 billion. But will it stop there? Is there a “limit”But will it stop there? Is there a “limit”

3. Summary of Trends Almost all the growth—over 95%--will be in the poorer countriesAlmost all the growth—over 95%--will be in the poorer countries

4. Summary of Trends The Population of the rich countries, or “developed world” will continue to decline both relative to the rest of the world’s population (i.e. as a percentage of the total population of the world), and they will decline absolutely within themselves i.e. their populations will get numerically smaller.The Population of the rich countries, or “developed world” will continue to decline both relative to the rest of the world’s population (i.e. as a percentage of the total population of the world), and they will decline absolutely within themselves i.e. their populations will get numerically smaller.

5. The Aging Population In almost all of the Developed World, the population is aging noticeably and very quicklyIn almost all of the Developed World, the population is aging noticeably and very quickly This is emphasized by the very small numbers of children being bornThis is emphasized by the very small numbers of children being born So, the dominance of the elderly will increase in Western Societies.So, the dominance of the elderly will increase in Western Societies.

6. Trends If we divide the population into deciles, that is from 0 to 10 years; 10 to 20 etc., which decile do you think is growing fastest inIf we divide the population into deciles, that is from 0 to 10 years; 10 to 20 etc., which decile do you think is growing fastest in The United States?The United States? Women over 80 have the highest rate of increase.Women over 80 have the highest rate of increase. In Japan?In Japan?

7. Trends Another factor inflating the proportional size of the elderly, is the very small number of children being born in the developed world.Another factor inflating the proportional size of the elderly, is the very small number of children being born in the developed world. Let’s look at a Population PyramidLet’s look at a Population Pyramid

8. Trend Fewer and fewer young people to look after the elderlyFewer and fewer young people to look after the elderly Fewer and fewer earning taxpayers to pay for the elderly.Fewer and fewer earning taxpayers to pay for the elderly. Who will support them.Who will support them. Look in the mirror.Look in the mirror.

9. One More Twist If, as exists now, you have the technology to determine the sex of a child before it is bornIf, as exists now, you have the technology to determine the sex of a child before it is born And you have on-demand abortion, then you have the capacity to change the natural sex ratio which is the balance between male and female.And you have on-demand abortion, then you have the capacity to change the natural sex ratio which is the balance between male and female. Look at thisLook at this

10. Some Facts About Europe Today Europe = 455m; US = 295mToday Europe = 455m; US = 295m In 2050: Europe =430m; US = 420mIn 2050: Europe =430m; US = 420m Life expectancy is the same, it is fertility that is differentLife expectancy is the same, it is fertility that is different In Italy, the working population will decline by 20% by 2035, but the >65s will grow by 44%In Italy, the working population will decline by 20% by 2035, but the >65s will grow by 44% Dependency Ratio from 32% to 67%!Dependency Ratio from 32% to 67%!

11. What to do? Germany will have to find 3.6 million people each year from outside Germany in the next 50 years just to stay where it is nowGermany will have to find 3.6 million people each year from outside Germany in the next 50 years just to stay where it is now Give tax breaks for more children—leads to earlier childbirth, but not more children.Give tax breaks for more children—leads to earlier childbirth, but not more children. Surveys in Germany suggest women actually want fewer children than are being born nowSurveys in Germany suggest women actually want fewer children than are being born now Redefine Retirement, keep working longer, reduce benefits to elderly who do not need them. Countries are now raising the retirement age.Redefine Retirement, keep working longer, reduce benefits to elderly who do not need them. Countries are now raising the retirement age.

12. What caused the decline in birth rate in the West? Social Security meant you did not need children as securitySocial Security meant you did not need children as security The changing status of women introduced more choice and optionsThe changing status of women introduced more choice and options It became increasingly expensive to realize your ambitions for the individual childIt became increasingly expensive to realize your ambitions for the individual child The need for women to work for the Double- Income householdThe need for women to work for the Double- Income household

13. Elements of the Transition 2 “Selfishness” and the “Me Generation” of the 1960s?“Selfishness” and the “Me Generation” of the 1960s? Birth-control education, AIDS?Birth-control education, AIDS? What else do you think contributedWhat else do you think contributed

14. The Challenge It seems that the growth rate of population FALLS if the income of the family goes UP.It seems that the growth rate of population FALLS if the income of the family goes UP. Can we raise the income and security of poor people faster than their numbers?Can we raise the income and security of poor people faster than their numbers? Is that the key to it all?Is that the key to it all?

15. Final Thoughts Here are some longest-recorded life spansHere are some longest-recorded life spans Arctic Clam—220 yearsArctic Clam—220 years Tortoise—150Tortoise—150 Sturgeon—150Sturgeon—150 Sea Turtle – limitlessSea Turtle – limitless Wait—did that say “limitless”???Wait—did that say “limitless”???

16. 'We will be able to live to 1,000' By Dr Aubrey de Grey University of Cambridge 'We will be able to live to 1,000' By Dr Aubrey de Grey University of Cambridge Aubrey de Grey: "The first person to live to 1,000 might already be 60 "Life expectancy is increasing in the developed world. But Cambridge University geneticist Aubrey de Grey believes it will soon extend dramatically to 1,000. Here, he explains why. Aubrey de Grey: "The first person to live to 1,000 might already be 60 "Life expectancy is increasing in the developed world. But Cambridge University geneticist Aubrey de Grey believes it will soon extend dramatically to 1,000. Here, he explains why. Ageing is a physical phenomenon happening to our bodies, so at some point in the future, as medicine becomes more and more powerful, we will inevitably be able to address ageing just as effectively as we address many diseases today. Ageing is a physical phenomenon happening to our bodies, so at some point in the future, as medicine becomes more and more powerful, we will inevitably be able to address ageing just as effectively as we address many diseases today. I claim that we are close to that point because of the SENS (Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence) project to prevent and cure ageing. This item is on your homepage. I claim that we are close to that point because of the SENS (Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence) project to prevent and cure ageing. This item is on your homepage.