1. Darfur in Comparative Perspective Regime Crises, Political Exclusion and Civil War in Africa Philip Roessler Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University

2. Explaining Civil War Onset in Darfur and Sub-Saharan Africa Between 1956 and 1999, 1/3 of the world’s civil wars have been in Africa In which civil war is defined as: Violent struggle between government and one or more armed local groups over the distribution of power, resources, territory, or other goods Violence reaches significant threshold (at least 1,000 battlefield deaths), with a minimal proportion of it (100 battlefield deaths in the first year) produced by the opposition(Sambanis 2004; Fearon and Laitin 2003)

3. Devastating Human and Economic Toll on African Countries An estimated 4 million war-related civilian deaths in the Democratic Republic of Congo over last 10 years 2.5 million displaced and 200,000+ war- related deaths in Darfur since 2003 Civil war causes on average 15% decline in income level (Collier et al. 2003)

4. Beyond Economic Explanations of Civil War Economics of Civil War Diamonds=civil war (Collier and Hoeffler 2001) Low Income (Collier and Hoeffler 2001; Fearon and Laitin 2003) Population Size (Hegre and Sambanis 2006)

5. Toward a More Dynamic Model of Civil War View civil war onset as emerging from a process of sustained bargaining failure and conflict escalation Strategic interactions between regime and opposition How institutions of political rule mediate this interaction

6. Outline of Rest of the Talk Explanation of Civil War Onset in Darfur, 2003 Based on 14-months of field research in Sudan, neighboring countries (Chad, Eritrea, Ethiopia), Abuja, Niger, Europe, and the US between 2005 and 2007 Theoretical Reason Pathway to Civil War in Darfur May Apply to other African Countries Cross-national Evidence and Other Cases Conclusion and Implications of Study

7. Key Questions Why did the government of Sudan so badly underestimate the SLA in April 2003? When faced with a burgeoning rebellion throughout 2002 and early 2003, why did it fail to politically accommodate or militarily contain the movement? Why did Darfurian dissidents turn to violent mobilization?

8. Argument Structure of ruling network in Darfur in 2002 and 2003 made it difficult for the central government to effectively counter the rebellion Lack of access to local information and leverage over societal groups Ruling network in Darfur dramatically altered by split in the Islamic movement in 1999- 2000

9. Analysis and Implications of Darfur Case Split in Islamic movement weakened regime’s network in Darfur Fearful of committing to bargaining because perceive Turabi and his loyalists looming in background Increased costs to reign in Abbala militias in 2000 and 2001 Lacked local agents in Dar Zaghawa Dismissed information from remaining non-Arab agents Persuaded by some Darfurian Arab leaders for an aggressive military response

10. Theoretical Reasons Pathway to Civil War May Apply Beyond Darfur Clientelism institutional foundation of political rule across African countries during post- independence period Principal-agent problem inherent to clientelism Most acute after regime crises and failed coups

11. Conclusion More dynamic explanation of civil war onset Rulers prioritize internal control over external control Enduring effects of regime crises Is high-stakes control for the state in Africa changing due to democratization and globalization? Challenges to raising the costs for exclusive policies and indiscriminate violence