1. The challenges for a low carbon future Matthew Page Independent Consultant mattwpage@gmail.com

2.  Background  The problem  Energy and the bigger picture  What do we do about it  Efficiency  Behavioural change Outline

3. What’s the problem with carbon? (MacKay, 2009) 8.4 GtC/y (2006) 2 GtC/y (2006) 1.5? GtC/y (2006)

4. What’s the problem with carbon? (MacKay, 2009)

5.  “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20 th century is very likely [>90%] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations”  Range of predictions:  Low scenario (B1) 1.8°C increase  High scenario (AF1) 4.0°C increase Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007)

6.  “We are committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the UK by at least 80% by 2050, relative to 1990 levels”  The Climate Change Act 2008 set legally binding emission reduction targets:  2020 34% reduction  2050 80% reduction  Five-yearly carbon budgets Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC)

7. Getting people to take the problem seriously Low carbon transport future Challenge no 1

8. End user sector 19902008%age of 2008 %age change 1990-2008 Business22718535%-20% Transport14114828%+5% Residential15614627%-6% Other695510%-20% Total593533100%-10% Transport’s contribution (MtCO 2 ) (DECC, 2010)

9. An Energy Problem (DECC, 2009)

10.  Size  37% of total final energy consumption  Domination of petroleum fuel in this sector  Petroleum not used for much else – vulnerability to oil price volatility  70% on road transport Energy and transport

11.  Adapt to a changing climate  We will have to do this anyway!  Reduce emissions  Improve efficiency (reduce carbon intensity)  Doesn’t require lifestyle change  Technological solutions  Change behaviour  Fewer trips  Shorter trips  Transfer to less polluting modes What can we do about it?

12.  Incremental technological improvements  More efficient ICEs  New types of propulsion  Hybrid  Plug in hybrid  Battery electric vehicle  New types of fuel  H 2 Efficiency

13. Transport and energy

14.  Much more complex energy pathways  DECC hoping for 30% electricity generated from renewables by 2020 Electricity and transport

15. Increase the supply of “green” electricity Low carbon transport future Challenge no 2

16.  Fewer trips  Number of trips a long term constant  Shorter trips  “Relocalising” society  Transfer to less energy intensive modes Behavioural change

18. How efficient is transport? “Tank to wheels” Per person Mostly for typical occupancy levels

19. Public Transport

20. Walking and cycling

21. Trips by distance and mode 67% of all trips 56% of driver & passenger trips miles

22. Getting cycling and walking taken seriously Public Politicians Practitioners Low carbon transport future Challenge no 3

23.  Increased investment in 6 cycling towns  Limited period (3.5 years)  Variety of different techniques  Significant increases in cycling  27% (automatic counters)  4% pa (manual cordon counts) Cycling Demonstration Towns

24. Wardman et al. (2007) Giving cycling a “nudge” CarPassBusTrainWalkCycle Base (1997 NTS)55.210.412.74.311.65.8 Half roads get non seg. on road lane 54.710.312.64.311.56.6 Half roads get seg. off road54.510.312.54.211.57.0 All on seg. off road53.310.012.34.211.29.0 Daily payment of £252.29.812.04.111.010.9 Showers and indoor parking54.510.312.54.211.47.1 Half roads get seg. lane, £2 payment, all trip end facilities 48.19.111.13.810.117.8

25. Making cycling a convenient, attractive choice: Quick, easy, everyday Not just for eccentrics and the “sporty” Improve the image Addressing fear of accidents Creating a critical mass Low carbon transport future Challenge no 4

26. Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) (2009) Energy Flow Chart, see http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/publications/flow/flow.asp x http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/publications/flow/flow.asp x Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) (2010) Revised Statistical Release for end-user emissions estimates, A revision to the end-user emission estimates (published 14 April 2010) see http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/climate_change/gg_emissi ons/uk_emissions/2009_prov/2009_prov.aspx http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/climate_change/gg_emissi ons/uk_emissions/2009_prov/2009_prov.aspx Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policymakers MacKay, D (2009) Sustainable Energy – without the hot air, UIT, Cambridge, see www.withouthotair.comwww.withouthotair.com Sloman L, Cavill N, Cope A, Muller L and Kennedy A (2009) Analysis and synthesis of evidence on the effects of investment in six Cycling Demonstration Towns Report for Department for Transport and Cycling England see http://www.dft.gov.uk/cyclingengland/cycling-cities- towns/results/http://www.dft.gov.uk/cyclingengland/cycling-cities- towns/results/ Wardman M, Tight M and Page M (2007) Factors influencing the propensity to cycle to work, Transportation Research Part A Volume 41, pp339–350 References