1. 1 Lessons from Argentina Voluntary Commitment Climate of Trust Side Event at COP8 New Delhi - 28/10/02 Daniel Bouille - Osvaldo Girardin Bariloche Foundation

2. 2 Presentation Outlines Retrospective analysis of the Argentine Voluntary Commitment Main elements related to the target Current Status of the proposal Lessons learned

3. 3 Context International –Increasing pressure on Non-Annex I countries to assume compromises –Specially coming from the “Umbrella Group” –Byrd-Hagel Resolution(7/97) Actions must be take in “key developing countries” Clinton Administration conditions to ratify the Kyoto Protocol National No Alignment Group/OECD/NAFTA Foreign Policy: Alignment with USA (“relaciones carnales”) Clinton visit to Argentina (10/1997) Bariloche Declaration –To establish targets for all countries –To implement environmental joint actions –To create an specific Office for Joint Implementation

4. 4 Target Taxonomy General Issues –Dynamic –GDP/Agro Activities –Econometric Approach –Past and Future Analysis Alternatives –Absolute Target –Emission Intensity –Root Emission Intensity Considering –No Hot Air –Feasibility of Commitment How and Why –Ep(t)= K *  GDP(t) K=(1-  ) Er (BAU)/  GDP(t)  = 0,1 K= 151,2 –Emission Intensity Reduction 10% Medium scenario Tautology?

5. 5 Results (Thousands Tons of Carbon)

6. 6 Target Justification and Weakness Justification (Specially Environmental Authorities) Contribution to Kyoto Protocol Implementation Low Competitiveness for Argentina in CDM Access to other Mechanisms To look for a “third way” Business Opportunities Weaknesses (Private Sector, Others Official Authorities) No strategic framework No governmental coordination Optimist estimation of business opportunities Implementation barriers Political conflicts (G77 and China) Optimist estimation of potential future gains of being an “USA friend” Isolated action

7. 7 Stakeholders Opinion –In favor: Environmental Secretary Functionaries; Some NGO´s, Some Multinational Firms –Not agree: Energy Industry, Industrial Sector, Academic Groups, Business Sectors, Other Governmental Organisms (Energy, Industry, Transport, Foreign Affairs). –Main arguments to disagree: no democratic process, no local environmental objectives included (co-benefits), no priority from the national perspective, absence of in deep analysis of opportunities, in a hurry decision, no sufficient base studies to assess the consequences, inadequacy of the type of target itself, additional costs and reduction of competitiveness, no coherence with regional partners positions (Mercosur), decision took at the end of the administration, absence of awareness, no recognition of the past efforts, absence of an integral analysis and plural debate,...

8. 8 The Decision Making Process to define the Target Leadership: Environmental Secretary Ad hoc Commission to define type and level Public Sector Functionaries Participation Private Sector as an Advisory Committee Technical Group to elaborate the type and level Diagnosis Prospective BAU Mitigation options Type and level of the target Civil Society Role

9. 9 Conclusions Political Framework: “a First World Country”? International pressure role and Foreign Policy Significant obstacles and barriers (KP-UNFCCC) Cooperative and Consensus action? Ad-hoc proposal, difficult to be use as model Long term Government Policy needed Sustainable Development Framework (equilibrium) Cross Cutting Issue: agreement and consensus –No consensus at Government level –Political decision under international pressure as insufficient –Awareness and Priority to Global Environmental Issues Seriousness of the proposal

10. 10 Issues influencing Emission Intensity Level and Evolution Level of GDP, GDP Structure and GDP per capita Degree of Development Dynamic of the GDP (growing, stable, decreasing) Energy supply Structure (by sources) Energy Consumption Structure (by sectors) Role of Commercial and Non-Commercial Energy Energy intensity of dynamic activities Emission intensity of dynamic activities Variables that influences dynamic of emission intensity activities Legal and Regulatory Framework Behavior of decision makers Energy prices Degree of openness of the economy Deregulation/re-regulation reforms Demographic Structure and density Rural/Urban population relation Country area Location of energy resources and energy consumption Income distribution Social and cultural issues....