2. Population and Demographics

3. 1 st test next week on last week and this week’s lectures. Study the PowerPoint and use the Study Guide that’s on the website. Questions are taken from the visible PowerPoint slides. There may be more detail on the hidden slides or slide notes but no questions are taken from them UNLESS I TELL YOU SO. Data questions: No specifics required unless I say so in lecture but you need to know ‘greater than, increase/decrease’ type answers. Date questions: I give you dates/periods and you have to know what went on.

4. 1. Population and demographics are important because… 2. Economic Geography explores… 3. The production network of the space economy is comprised of what. 4. The space economy’s contexts. 7. Linkages within the space economy. 8. Distance decay? 9. Characteristics of the stages of the demographic transition as they relate to economic change and urbanisation. 10. Modelling, levels of abstraction, isotropic conditions, assumptions. 11. The Wisdom of the Crowd. 12. Immigration and importance to countries. 13. Population pyramids, for levels of development. 14. The synchronous model of demographic, economic, and urban change. 15. Relationships between fertility, infant mortality, population growth rates and GDP for different regions. 24. What is the demographic dividend? 25. Implications of the butterfly effect. 26. Dependency rates and what they measure. 27. Urbanisation and urban growth. 28. Implications of dependency rates for nations. This is not a substitute for studying nor will I entertain complaints that it misguided you! Normally I… Do not expect you to remember any data slides except in terms of greater than, less than, increase, decrease terms etc, unless I mention that you need to remember the data in class. Do not expect you to remember dates - I give you periods and you need to know what went on.

5. Who Feeds Paris?

6. Or Toronto for that matter. It is a (sometimes) rhetorical question often raised by economists to make a point – just how does a modern western capitalist economy work? Think about your morning routine to get here: Bed, sheets, toilet, tiles, clothes, fridge, food, transit, etc… Number of grocery stores in U.S. = 37,716 Number of different products sold by average store = 42, 214 Number of countries or origin for products = @180 Sales = $632 billion This is Adam Smith’s invisible hand at work.

7. Population and Demographics The World’s Population Clock As of today: 7,301,099,600 people on earth Every minute: 273 born 108 die (among them 11 infants) 165 population increase DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH

8. Population and Demographics The World’s Population Clock As of today: 6,871,496,764 people on earth Every minute: 264 born 108 die (among them 13 infants) 156 population increase DevelopedDeveloping # Born 27237 # Dying 23 (0.2) 85 (13) Increase 4152 By the time this lecture ends: 49,140 births 19,440 deaths 29,700 increase 1,800 infant deaths DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH

10. World Population Growth Through History Linear Scales 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 1,000 Now YEARS AGO WORLD POPULATION BILLIONS Much is hidden by the time scale and slow early population growth. DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH

11. YEARS AGO WORLD POPULATION (Log10 Scale) World Population Growth Through History Log10 Population Scale 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 1,000 Now About 8,000 years ago, as agricultural revolution takes hold and cities begin, population surges. About 300 years ago, as industrial revolution takes hold, population grows exponentially. Period of urban growth: 9,000 to 300 years ago Period of urbanization: the last 300 years I billion 7 billion DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH

12. Source: Calculated from U.S. Bureau of the Census data. Population percentage growth rates declining since 1965.

13. Decreasing annual growth in numbers of people started in 1988. Source: Calculated from U.S. Bureau of the Census data. But still added almost 70 million people in 2014… … and by 2050 it will still be almost 40 million.

14. All growth rates have been declining since the mid 1980s, with the developed world declining since the 1950s. It is not growth rates that drive increasing population but the age composition of the population. Many young equals potential for large population growth despite declining fertility rates. Developing world and Sub Saharan Africa higher than world average Developed world and Europe lower than world average, with negative rates for Europe. DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH

15. Even though fertility rates (# live births per female) are decreasing (blue line), the number of women of childbearing age is increasing (red columns). The net result is population growth. The number of women of childbearing age more than doubled between 1950 and 1990. Billions of Women 15-49

16. Most Populated Countries By 2050 India will replace China as the world’s most populated country. …and two African nations will join it. The U.S. moves to 4 th largest in number and 1 st in resource use. Russia and Japan will leave the list… Nigeria shoots from 8 th to 3rd DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH The top 10 most populous countries have @60% of the world’s population. By 2050 they will all be in the current developing world except for the U.S.

17. Now: 7.286 billion UN high fertility variant 2050: Fertility rates stay constant = 10.5 billion UN med fertility variant 2050: ZPG = 9.1 billion UN low fertility variant 2050: Fertility rates <ZPG = 8.0 DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH Likely between high and medium. No chance.

18. World population, 1950-2050 (projected using U.N. Medium Variant) Global Population Growth Is A Developing-Country Occurrence 17 7.8 billion @85% 1.2 billion @17% 6.1 billion @83% 1.3 billion @15% 7.3 billion 100% 9.1 billion 100% 2014 2050 DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH

20. Stage 1 High Fluctuating U.K. pre 1760 Stage 2 Early expanding U.K. 1760-1870 Stage 3 Late expanding U.K. 1870-1950 Stage 4 Low fluctuating U.K. post 1950 Stage 5 Decline? U.K. 21 st century 1700 1740 1780 1820 1860 1900 1940 1980 2020 Rate per 1,000 population 40 30 20 10 0 Total Population growth Death Rate Birth Rate Demographic Transition Natural Increase/decrease DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH

21. 20 Controlling Death Measles Mortality Rate in the United States 1900-1990 Vaccination begins in 1964, virtually eliminating disease. Lower rates stabilise 1942-1964. Rapidly declining rates 1925-1942 with better prophylactic care. Stable high mortality 1900-1925. DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH

22. 21 In the 2000s a decrease in vaccination rates due to misplaced fears of autism caused a recurrence of and increase in measles until increasing vaccination rates reduced the incidence rates again. Vaccination rate Incidence rate Controlling Death Measles Incidence and Vaccination Rates, England & Wales 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH

23. 22 Controlling Death Tuberculosis Mortality Rate in the United States 1900-1970 Similar pattern to measles: declining rates due to better prophylactic care. Then rapidly declining rates due to immunization in 1951. DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH Multi Drug Resistant TB a growing concern globally, especially for poorer countries and unvaccinated people.

24. 23 Fertility rates Birth rates more difficult to control since it is a cultural and economic decision. Any economic gains and losses from declining death rates of children are not immediately obvious. Fertility rates decline as infant mortality declines, stabilizing at about replacement rate. DEMOGRAPHICS - DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION Total Fertility Rate Infant Mortality Replacement Rate Controlling Births

25. Demographic Transition, Low and High Income Nations Low Income Nations Stage 3, BR & DR still declining High Income Nations Stage 4, BR & DR both low and stable. Source: World Bank Indicators DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH

26. Demographic Transition, Canada Stage 4 since @ 2000, BR & DR both low and stable. Source: World Bank Indicators DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH

27. Demographic Transition, Germany Stage 5 since @ 1971, BR lower than DR. Source: World Bank Indicators DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH Natural increase changes to natural decrease. Without in-migration, there will be population decline.

28. Where’s demographic transition at? Europe Europe has moved into stage “five” of demographic transition where death rates exceed birth rates. It now faces population decline unless this is compensated by increased fertility or migration. DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH

29. 28 POPULATION CHANGE, MEXICO AND SWEDEN 1735-2005 Showing death rates, birth rates and demographic transition stages (orange Sweden, green Mexico). Stage 1Stage 2Stage 3Stage 4 Stage 1 Stage 2Stage 3 1815 1905 DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION GROWTH

30. 29

31. 30 Staying Alive Its one thing to control births and deaths but quite another to stay alive in between. How good that life might be is also worth exploring, so we will look at a few life variables such as survivorship, life expectancy and aging. Survivorship is very amusing – it looks at your chances of reaching your next birthday. Yours are better than mine

32. 31 Survivorship Survivorship is a demographic technique that computes the probability that a given age cohort will live until their next birthday. Basically, it tracks the fate of a given age cohort – newborns, 18 year olds, 80 year olds, etc. They are fundamental to actuarial science and to population projection models for all species. The basic curves are thus:

33. Percentage of population surviving Age of population High survivorship Rapid die off in older years e.g. humans Low survivorship Rapid die off in younger years e.g. turtles Steady survivorship Constant die off across all years e.g. most birds Basic Survivorship Curves 0 Old

34. 33 Percentage of population surviving Age of population High survivorship Rapid die off in older years More developed countries Low survivorship Rapid die off in younger years Least developed countries Steady survivorship Constant die off across all years Developing countries Human Survivorship Curves Shift in curves as development occurs

35. 34 Canadian Female and Male Survivorship Curves 1831 and 2011 In 1831 the probability of surviving your first 5 years of life were as low as those of surviving your 55 th to 60 th year of life. Female survivorship rates are higher than those of males. Overall, survivorship rates have increased over the period.

36. 35 Canadian Female and Male Survivorship Curves 0-5 Age Cohort 1831 to 2011 Survival rates of infants have improved by almost 20 percentage points over the period, and males have closed the gap with females.

37. 36 Survival rates of the elderly have improved by almost 45 percentage points over the period, but the gap between males females has grown. Canadian Female and Male Survivorship Curves 85-90 Age Cohort 1831 to 2011

38. 37 Survivorship Curves, India, Niger, U.K. (1999), 17 th Century England 17 th Century England Niger India U.K. 1999

39. 38 Highest Life Expectancy (Years)Lowest Life Expectancy (Years) Hong Kong84Lesotho44 San Marino84Sierra Leone45 Switzerland83Botswana47 Singapore83Swaziland49 Japan83Central African Republic50 Spain82Congo50 Sweden82Cote d’Ivoire51 Liechtenstein82Chad51 Australia82Angola52 Italy82Equatorial Guinea53 Average82.7Average49.2 Population Reference Bureau, 2011 People in the most developed nations live 1.7 times as long as people in the least developed countries. Life Expectancy 2013

40. DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS

41. An Aging Gender Bound World Going to look at changing population structure in the world, which principally means exploring aging and gender. Underlying economic principles are that: People are an asset when they can work. People are a liability when they cannot. Women in the developing world are the principal earners. This leads to: The need for a socio-economic system that can support dependents (the young and the old) and this means having an appropriate number of workers who are working. The need for a socio-economic system that provides the freedom for women to get educated, obtain resources, and to work. DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS

42. The Population Pyramid Structure Age cohorts are on the vertical axis. Gender is split on the horizontal axis… malesfemales Each “row” shows the number or proportion of males or females in that cohort for that region/nation. …as is population size in numbers or proportions. DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS

43. The Population Pyramid Also Shows Potential for Growth. The lower cohorts become the older cohorts – e.g. the 0-4 years olds become the 30-34 years olds in 30 years. Potential for Reproduction Workforce Dependent Groups Children = economic asset Elderly = economic liability DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS

44. Basic Population Pyramids Very few old population Fewer support population Many young Many support population Fewer young Fewer old Few young Few support population Many Old Typical of developing world. Typical of developed world with migration such as Canada. Typical of developed world with little migration such as Japan. Pyramids are dynamic, changing over time from one shape to another. DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS

46. World 1950 World 2015 World 2050 Percent change in population: 2015-2050 = 23.8% 2050-2100 = 13.6% Population (millions): 1950 = 2,516 2015 = 7,324 2050 =9,550 Source: http://populationpyramid.net Population in Percent Share, World

47. Europe 1950 Europe 2050 Europe 2015 Population in Percent Share, Europe Population (millions): 1950 = 549 2015 = 743 2050 = 709 By 2050 Europe will have declined in population, having only @7%.

48. By 2050 only Africa will still have population growth potential; i.e. a young population, and about 25% of global total. Population in Percent Share, Africa Africa 1950 Africa 2050 Africa 2015 Population (millions): 1950 = 228 2015 = 1,166 2050 = 2,393

49. Asia 2050 Source: http://populationpyramid.net Population in Percent Share, Asia Asia 2015 Asia 1950 Population (millions): 1950 = 1,359 2015 = 4,450 2050 = 5,162 By 2050 Asia will have reached European pyramid shape but will have 54% of global total.

50. If current fertility and immigration rates continue to 2050, Germany's population will age dramatically. With few young people to support the aging population, by 2050 the tax base will erode and social services decline. DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS Population millions

51. Germany 2015 Germany 2015 Germany 2050 Source: http://populationpyramid.net Population in Percent Share, Germany Population (millions) 1950 = 70 2015 = 82 2050 = 72 By 2050 Germany’s population will have declined almost back to 1950 levels.

52. Japan: Population Pyramids, 1990 to 2050 Declining population + increasing number of elderly + highly restrictive immigration policies = pending economic disaster. Population 2013 = 127.1 million. Dependents Support group DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS

53. Japan 1950 Japan 2050 Japan 2015 Japan – decline in population (2015 = 125.4 million): 2015-2050 = -15.9% 2050-2100 = -22.1% Population in Percent Share, Japan Population (millions): 1950 = 82 2015 = 126 2050 = 108

54. Canada 1950 Canada 2015 Canada 2050 Source: http://populationpyramid.net Canada’s population will continue to grow steadily – from migration. Population in Percent Share, Canada Population (millions): 1950 = 14 2015 = 36 2050 = 45

55. China 1950 China 2015 China 2050 Source: http://populationpyramid.net China’s population will continue to decline steadily but will still constitute 14.5% of the world. Population in Percent Share, China Population (millions) 1950 = 544 2015 = 1,432 2050 = 1,384

56. MEDIAN AGE (50% of population below and 50% above) Location195020102050 World24.029.138.4 More developed regions29.039.745.6 Least developed regions19.519.929.0 Eastern Europe26.438.546.0 South America20.428.242.1 Sub Saharan Africa19.018.627.2 Asia22.329.040.2 China23.934.245.2 India21.325.038.4 Canada27.739.945.2 U.S.A.30.036.641.7 Source: United Nations Database. Japan: 2014 = 46.1, 2050 = 53 There will be almost as many centenarians as newborns.

57. DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS Germany

58. DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS Uganda Malawi Zambia

59. Growth Rate by Age Group, Canada 2006-2011 Where the workers – and customers – are. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 AGE COHORT CHILD 0-19 ELDERLY 65+ Boomers GenX GenZ iGen G.I. Gen Boomer Parents EchoGen GenY DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS SUPPORT 20-64

60. Canada Population Pyramid 2011 GEN Z ECHO GEN X BOOMER PARENTS BOOMERS ECONOMIC LIABILITY? DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS

61. But the value was about 25% higher before the 2008 crash and the low interest rates of the “recovery’s” monetary policy have since crippled its ability to recover. Canada has $1.5trillion - @84% of GDP. And what happens to the (not so) old folks? Boomers have largest pension fund reservoir in history, estimated in 2013 at $29.7 trillion or 78% of GDP, 1 but… 1 For Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Japan, Netherlands, South Africa, Switzerland, U.K., U.S. Source: Towers Watson, Global Pension Assets Study 2013 DEMOGRAPHICS - POPULATION PYRAMIDS

62. DEMOGRAPHICS - FERTILITY

63. Not The Birds and the Bees The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children being born to women of child bearing age in a given society and is related to social and economic decisions. It should not be confused with fecundity, which refers to the biological and genetic capacity of a woman to bear children. All women have the same fecundity, but a nation’s women might have quite different fertility rates. The higher the TFR in a nation/region the more population will grow. Even low TFRs can result in population growth if there are many females 15-49, and especially in younger cohorts: 4m women at TFR 2 = 8m kids, 1.6m at TFR 5 = 8m kids. DEMOGRAPHICS - FERTILITY

64. 63 TFR HIGHLOW FEMALE POPULATION 15-45 HIGH Population growth rate very high. Population growth rate high. LOW Population growth rate high. Population growth rate very low. Relationship Between TFR and Population Size The volatility of population growth is shown in the table below, with three of the scenarios producing high to very high growth rates. Even when female population is low, high TFRs can produce high growth rates.

65. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) The TFR is dependent on many things, most of which affect a woman’s health, education, prosperity to name three. If these things are high, then fertility will be low. A TFR of 2.1 is considered necessary to achieve zero population growth. Less than that leads to population decline while higher rates mean population growth. World TFR YearsTFR 1950–19554.95 1955–19604.89 1960–19654.91 1965–19704.85 1970–19754.45 1975–19803.84 1980–19853.59 1985–19903.39 1990–19953.04 1995–20002.79 2000–20052.62 2005–20102.52 2010–20152.36 DEMOGRAPHICS - FERTILITY

66. World TFR 2012 Canada’s TFR is currently 1.68 – very low. Without immigration Canada’s population size would decline rapidly. And Japan’s is 1.37 DEMOGRAPHICS - FERTILITY

67. Even though fertility rates (# live births per female) are decreasing (blue line), the number of women of childbearing age is increasing (red columns). The net result is population growth. The number of women of childbearing age more than doubled between 1950 and 1990. Billions of Women 15-49 Fertility Rate and Women of Childbearing Age

68. As infant mortality increases, fertility rate increases. Source: Derived from World Bank Data Association Between Fertility and Infant Mortality, 2011 Strong positive relationship between infant mortality and fertility rate DEMOGRAPHICS - FERTILITY

69. Association Between Fertility and Education Strong negative relationship between education attainment and fertility rate As education increases fertility rates decrease. DEMOGRAPHICS - FERTILITY

70. Strong positive relationship between poverty and fertility rate Association Between Fertility and Poverty, 2011 As poverty increases total fertility increases. DEMOGRAPHICS - FERTILITY

71. Fertility levels have been on the rebound in much of Europe from the mid-1990s, except in Bosnia. Source: Worldbank Databank Whither Europe? But nowhere near the 2.1 replacement rate required to stablise population. DEMOGRAPHICS - FERTILITY

72. Population will start declining by 2030 if baseline (current) trends hold. 2000 2050 DEMOGRAPHICS - FERTILITY X And with no migration?

73. DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY

74. Dependency Dependency refers to the number of workers in a population to the number of dependents. Indicates the degree of tax burden on the economy, or the cost of supporting children and the elderly. It is measured using the ratio of the 15 to 64 age cohort to the 0 to 14 and 65+ age cohorts. It is comprised of: an elderly cohort + a child cohort / a support cohort DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY

75. Dependency Ratios Total Dependency Ratio = (Number of people 0-14 + 65>) Number of people 15-64 For example – Canada, dependency ratio Pop 65+ = 4,945,000 (14.8%) Pop <=14 = 5,607,345 (16.7%) Pop 15-64 = 23,930,434 (68.5%) Calculated: By Proportion: (16.7%+14.8%)/68.5% = 0.46 By Population: (4,945,000+5,607,345)/23,930,434 = 0.44 Low dependency ratios mean a low level of dependence, so low numbers are good. DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY

76. Inverse Dependency Ratios Inverse dependency ratios tell you how many support people (or workers) you have for every dependent. Using the Canadian population ratio calculated in the last slide: (4,945,000+5,607,345)/23,930,434 = 0.44 We take the inverse of the ratio: 1/0.44 = 2.27 which tells us that there are 2.27 support people for every dependent. High inverse dependency ratios mean a low level of dependence so high numbers are good. DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY

77. Interpreting Dependency Ratios Effects on an Economy HighLow Dependency Ratio Not good (Too many dependents, not enough workers) Good (Not too many dependents for the number of workers) Inverse Dependency Ratio Good (Enough workers to support the dependents) Not good (Not enough workers to support the dependents) Dependency ratios are about the number of dependents. Inverse dependency ratios are about the number of workers. DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY

78. Interpreting Dependency Ratios - Children versus Elderly Effects on an Economy High contribution to ratio Low contribution to ratio Elderly cohort component (economic liability) Not good (Too many elderly requiring support without future benefit.) Good (Few elderly requiring support.) Children cohort component (economic asset) Good (Children require support but will eventually become workers.) Not good (Children require support and not enough of them to become workers.) Developed nations are weighted heavily towards the elderly. Developing nations are weighted heavily towards children. DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY

79. Growth in Canada’s Dependent Groups 1921 Proportion of dependents = 39.2% Dependency ratio (1/x) = 0.65 (1.6) Proportion of elderly dependents of all dependents = 12.2% The dependency ratio has decreased since 1921 but the proportion of elderly has increased substantially. 2011 Proportion of dependents = 31.5% Dependency ratio (1/x) = 0.46 (2.2) Proportion of elderly dependents of all dependents = 46.8% DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY

80. 45%34% 32%35%33% Under 15 years Over 64 years Regional Proportions of Selected Dependent Age Cohorts of World Population 2014 DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY

81. Share of working age population Working age populations are decreasing in developed countries, and the elderly dependent group is increasing, as is sovereign debt, which eats into the resources available to provide support. DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY

82. Dependency Rates, Selected Nations, 2005 and 2050 As these nations age, ratios increase dramatically. Japan has an especially difficult time ahead due to restrictive immigration policy. DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY

83. The advantage gained from having a young population. When a country has a large reservoir of young, it can achieve what is called the demographic dividend. This is the potential economic growth that may result from having a large number of young who move into the 15 to 64 year old cohorts – or into the support group on a population pyramid. But the dividend only occurs if a decline in a nation’s birth and death rates – especially those of infants and children - occurs. The Demographic Dividend DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY

84. Dividend requires that the TFR decreases significantly, leading to fewer births and thus a decline in the ratio of the young to the support cohorts of the economy. Even then, the right social and economic policies must be developed and the right investments made: Investment in child survival and health programs. Commitment to voluntary family planning. Investment in the reproductive health and education for youth. Prioritize education, especially for women. Prioritize income earning, especially for women. The Demographic Dividend DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY

85. South Korea made a rapid transition from high to low fertility, while at the same time experiencing an annual growth in per capita gross domestic product of 6.7 percent between 1960 and 1990. South Korea's success was the result of addressing population issues, while also investing in reproductive health programs, education, and economic policies to create infrastructure and manufacturing. The following population pyramids illustrate how quickly the fertility transition in South Korea took place. The Demographic Dividend – South Korea DEMOGRAPHICS - DEPENDENCY

86. Korea 1950 TFR = 5.4 Korea 1980 TFR = 2.9 Korea 2015 TFR = 1.2 Source: http://populationpyramid.net Korea’s population declined rapidly after the Korean war and the nation realized its demographic dividend. Population in Percent Share, Korea Population (millions) 1950 = 19 1980 = 40 2015 = 50

87. DEMOGRAPHICS - MIGRATION

88. Where Does Population Growth Come From? Pop growth =(Births - Deaths) + (In-migration - Out-migration) (Births – Deaths) = Natural Increase or Decrease (In-migration – Out-migration) = Net migration Pop growth = Natural Increase or Decrease + Net Migration Low rates of natural increase must be offset by increases in net migration, otherwise populations decline. Population Is important Economic demand Human resource asset Territorial security Cultural identity DEMOGRAPHICS - MIGRATION

89. WORLD POPULATION BASICS 2012 Region (Less Developed) Births Per 1000 Deaths Per 1000 Natural Increase Per 1000 (B-D=NI) Net Migration Per 1000 (NM) Population Growth Per 1000 (NI+NM) Population Growth rate (%) World20812N/A12 1.2 MDCs1110123 0.3 LDCs2281413 1.3 Least DCs35102524 2.4 Africa3611 25 24 2.4 Sub Saharan3812 26 25 2.5 North Africa266 20 19 1.9 N. America138 5 3 8 0.8 Canada117 4 7 1.1 U.S.138 5 2 7 0.7 Latin America196 13 12 1.2 Asia187 11 0 1.1 China127 5 0 5 0.5 Europe11 0 2 2 0.2 N. Europe139 4 3 7 0.7 Oceania187 11 4 15 1.5 Source: Population Reference Bureau, World Data Sheet 2012 DEMOGRAPHICS - MIGRATION

90. Less developed regions are growing fastest. DEMOGRAPHICS - MIGRATION

91. Natural increase is high in less developed parts of the world. By 2050 Europe’s population is estimated to decrease to 732 million, from 740 million in 2012. Natural Increase Per 1000 Population 2012 DEMOGRAPHICS - MIGRATION

92. Developed regions depend on migration for population growth. Oceania includes Australia and New Zealand. Net Migration Per 1000 Population 2012 DEMOGRAPHICS - MIGRATION

93. PERIOD NATURAL INCREASE (NI)NET MIGRATIONPOP GROWTH NM as a % of Pop Growth NI as a % of Pop Growth 1851-1861 611,000182,000 793,00022.95%77.05% 1861-1871 610,000-150,000 460,000-32.61%132.61% 1871-1881 690,000-54,000 636,000-8.49%108.49% 1881-1891 654,000-146,000 508,000-28.74%128.74% 1891-1901 668,000-130,000 538,000-24.16%124.16% 1901-1911 1,025,000810,000 1,835,00044.14%55.86% 1911-1921 1,270,000311,000 1,581,00019.67%80.33% 1921-1931 1,360,000230,000 1,590,00014.47%85.53% 1931-1941 1,222,000-92,000 1,130,000-8.14%108.14% 1941-1951 1,972,000169,000 2,141,0007.89%92.11% 1951-1956 1,473,000598,000 2,071,00028.87%71.13% 1956-1961 1,675,000482,000 2,157,00022.35%77.65% 1961-1966 1,518,000259,000 1,777,00014.58%85.42% 1966-1971 1,090,000463,000 1,553,00029.81%70.19% 1971-1976 936,000695,000 1,631,00042.61%57.39% 1976-1981 977,000493,000 1,470,00033.54%66.46% 1981-1986 987,000400,000 1,387,00028.84%71.16% 1986-1991 987,000951,000 1,938,00049.07%50.93% 1991-1996 912,000780,000 1,692,00046.10%53.90% 1996-2001 616,000841,000 1,457,00057.72%42.28% 21,253,0007,092,000 28,345,00025.02%74.98% COMPONENTS OF CANADIAN POPULATION GROWTH 1851 TO 2001

94. PERIOD NATURAL INCREASE (NI)NET MIGRATIONPOP GROWTH NM as a % of Pop Growth NI as a % of Pop Growth 1851-1861 611,000182,000 793,00022.95%77.05% 1861-1871 610,000-150,000 460,000-32.61%132.61% 1871-1881 690,000-54,000 636,000-8.49%108.49% 1881-1891 654,000-146,000 508,000-28.74%128.74% 1891-1901 668,000-130,000 538,000-24.16%124.16% 1901-1911 1,025,000810,000 1,835,00044.14%55.86% 1911-1921 1,270,000311,000 1,581,00019.67%80.33% 1921-1931 1,360,000230,000 1,590,00014.47%85.53% 1931-1941 1,222,000-92,000 1,130,000-8.14%108.14% 1941-1951 1,972,000169,000 2,141,0007.89%92.11% 1951-1956 1,473,000598,000 2,071,00028.87%71.13% 1956-1961 1,675,000482,000 2,157,00022.35%77.65% 1961-1966 1,518,000259,000 1,777,00014.58%85.42% 1966-1971 1,090,000463,000 1,553,00029.81%70.19% 1971-1976 936,000695,000 1,631,00042.61%57.39% 1976-1981 977,000493,000 1,470,00033.54%66.46% 1981-1986 987,000400,000 1,387,00028.84%71.16% 1986-1991 987,000951,000 1,938,00049.07%50.93% 1991-1996 912,000780,000 1,692,00046.10%53.90% 1996-2001 616,000841,000 1,457,00057.72%42.28% 21,253,0007,092,000 28,345,00025.02%74.98% Since 1851 natural increase has provided about 75% of Canada’s population growth. But migration has been providing an ever increasing share of population growth. Between 2001 and 2013 migration share of total growth has averaged 71% COMPONENTS OF CANADIAN POPULATION GROWTH 1851 TO 2001 PeriodAverage net migration share of pop growth 1931-200129.44% 1941-200132.85% 1951-200135.35% 1961-200137.78% 1971-200142.98% 1981-200145.43% 1991-200151.91% 1996-200157.72% 2010-201172.49% 2011-201265.46% 2012-201376.41% DEMOGRAPHICS - MIGRATION

95. Natural Increase and Migration Canada, 1851-2001 Natural Increase dominant growth component Migration increasingly dominant as major growth component Migration outstrips natural increase

96. Migration increasingly dominant as growth component. Migration outstrips natural increase Source: Calculated from previous Statistics Canada data. Natural Increase and Migration as a Share of Population Growth 1851-2012 DEMOGRAPHICS - MIGRATION

97. Japan 1965-2005 Net Migration as a Percent of Population Growth Average 5.4% Canada Average 45% Note that natural increase is so low in Japan that migration share is fairly meaningless. DEMOGRAPHICS - MIGRATION

98. E.U. 27 Migration and Natural Increase DEMOGRAPHICS - MIGRATION Transformation of just who it is that is responsible for population growth in Europe since the 1990s.

99. Implications of Migration on Population Growth If natural increase becomes natural decrease, populations will decline rapidly. So… Rapid net migration increases are necessary to offset population decreases to sustain demand and labour. But the implications of this are changes in: Ethnic and cultural composition of the population. Geopolitical behaviour and power. Demand/supply patterns for goods and services. Availability and skillsets of labour. Income distribution – more inequality. Resource consumption patterns. DEMOGRAPHICS - MIGRATION