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NRCS National Water and Climate Center Update Tom Pagano 503 414 3010 Natural Resources Conservation Service.

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Presentation on theme: "NRCS National Water and Climate Center Update Tom Pagano 503 414 3010 Natural Resources Conservation Service."— Presentation transcript:

1 NRCS National Water and Climate Center Update Tom Pagano Tom.Pagano@por.usda.gov 503 414 3010 Natural Resources Conservation Service

2 Graphical Products (GIS) Daily Update Guidance Forecasts

3 NRCS Webpage Circa 2001 until Sept 2006(!)

4 Design principles Rich context in neutral colors Data emphasized without being ham-fisted Still usable in black and white Completely annotated NRCS Webpage 2007

5 Snow

6 Apr 1 2007

7

8 Water Year Precipitation Percentile

9

10 Combined NRCS/NWS plots (using ACIS data)

11

12

13

14

15 Where to get maps: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/gis To get actual data files

16 Daily Forecast Updates Currently, forecasts produced 1x per month using monthly data. With a simulation model (e.g. ESP) can be run more frequently but is resource intensive.

17 Daily Forecast Updates Daily SNOTEL data exists for 20+ years. Statistical forecast techniques are cheap/easy. Why not develop 365 forecast equations/year?

18 Daily Forecast Updates Daily SNOTEL data exists for 20+ years. Statistical forecast techniques are cheap/easy. Why not develop 365 forecast equations/year? Developed Excel application to calibrate daily forecasts (1.5 mins) and run them on a scheduler (10 sec)

19 Automated logic of choosing predictors

20 Three big problems in water supply forecasting: 1.Intercorrelated predictors 2.Varying periods of record 3.Missing realtime data

21 Z-Score Regression (Pagano 2004) Prevents compensating regression coefficients. Aggregates like predictors, emphasizing best ones. Does not require serial completeness. Relative contribution of predictors Three big problems in water supply forecasting: 1.Intercorrelated predictors 2.Varying periods of record 3.Missing realtime data Pagano, T. C. 2004: My dissertation. University of Arizona, Tucson, Department of hydrology and water resources

22 1971-2000 avg Period of record median Period of record range (10,30,70,90 percentile)

23 1971-2000 avg Period of record median Period of record range (10,30,70,90 percentile) Official coordinated outlooks

24 1971-2000 avg Period of record median Period of record range (10,30,70,90 percentile) Official coordinated outlooks Daily Update Forecasts

25 Official forecasts

26 Daily forecast 50% exceedence Official forecasts Expected skill

27 Calibration dataset of today’s equation Current forecast

28 Sept 30

29 May 1

30

31 obs

32

33

34 Courtesy Randal Wortman Army Corps 6% avg error

35 http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ wsf/daily_forecasts.html If you want more forecasts in your area: Contact your NRCS Snow Survey Data Collection Officers and/or Water Supply Specialists

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