1. Presentation by Dr. Kevin Lasher

3. Election of 1992 Post-Cold War: Foreign Policy Not That Important Any More

4. Election of 1992 It’s the Economy, stupid

5. Election of 1992 Governor with little foreign policy experience Second-tier foreign policy team Focus on US domestic economy & foreign trade policy Tie US domestic economy to global free market system

6. Foreign Policy Issues Global trade Post-communism world Proliferation of WMD Terrorism (pre-9/11) Environmental problems Civil war/failed states Human rights China’s emergence Peace in Middle East and elsewhere

7. Clinton Paradigm “The successor to a doctrine of containment must be a strategy of enlargement -- enlargement of the world's free community of market democracies.” NSA Anthony Lake, 1993 Enlargement and Engagement

8. Strengthen the community of major market democracies Foster and consolidate new democracies and market economies Counter aggression and support the liberalization of states hostile to democracy and markets Help democracy and market economies take root in regions of greatest humanitarian concern

9. Enlargement & Engagement A coherent paradigm or a set of broad goals? How do the “pieces” fit together? Benevolent hegemonism + liberal internationalism + economism

10. Enlargement and Engagement Strengthen the community of major market democracies Improve multinational organizations like UN, NATO, G-7 Maintain and expand bilateral ties with traditional allies Work with traditional allies to expand democracy where possible

11. Enlargement and Engagement Foster and consolidate new democracies and market economies Aid transition to democracy and capitalism in former communist countries Support new democracies in Latin America and elsewhere Encourage China in its next stage of economic reforms

12. Enlargement and Engagement Counter aggression and support the liberalization of states hostile to democracy and markets Respond to rogue states like Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Cuba Promote reform/revolution where possible Use military force where necessary

13. Enlargement and Engagement Help democracy and markets take root in regions of greatest humanitarian concern Humanitarian interventions in Haiti, Somalia, Rwanda, former Yugoslavia, elsewhere Peace-keeping, stability, nation-building Long-term policy of helping to “remake” such failing states Moral requirement

14. Enlargement and Engagement Goal #1: Link US domestic economic interests to the expansion of the global free market system

15. Enlargement and Engagement International playground: Strengthen existing friendships, make new friends, deal with bullies (and turn them into friends?), and help those who cannot help themselves Too grandiose ? Too idealistic ?

16. Clinton Successes Expansion of world trade through NAFTA and WTO Mexican bailout 1994-95 Further integration of US with globalizing economy Strong US economy as model to world (budget surpluses)

17. Clinton Successes Interventions in Haiti, Bosnia, Kosovo Delayed and very messy but “they worked” Congressional opposition, Russian unhappiness, bomb Chinese embassy by mistake

18. Clinton Successes Deproliferation of Ukraine, Belorus, Kazakhstan START II Treaty with Russia, aid to Russia for de-nuclearization Freeze on North Korean nuclear program ???

19. Clinton Successes Peace process in Northern Ireland

20. Clinton Successes Upgrading and expansion of NATO Expansion of EU and creation of eurozone (minor US role) New defense treaty with Japan Typical complicated relations with China

21. Clinton Failures No Western Hemisphere Free Trade Agreement Little action on Asian financial crisis of 1997-98

22. Clinton Failures Failed nation building in Somalia Failure to prevent/stop genocide in Rwanda Bosnia and Kosovo were quite flawed; many lives lost as US delayed action

23. Clinton Failures India and Pakistan become nuclear powers

24. Clinton Failures Last-minute push for Israel-Palestinian agreement falls short (receives some credit for coming close)

25. Clinton Failures Clinton unable to “unfreeze” relations with Cuba

26. Clinton Unclear “Containment” of Saddam’s Iraq through a variety of means

27. Clinton Unclear Russia unhappy over expansion of NATO and intervention in former Yugoslavia Russia moving away from democracy as Clinton leaves office Difficult to blame Putinism on Clinton

28. Clinton Unclear Results of anti-terrorism policies? How much to blame should Clinton receive for events of 9/11?

29. Clinton Assessment Despite claim of E & E paradigm, Clinton foreign policy was ad-hoc, pragmatic and hyper-cautious Results were a complex of modest successes, modest failures, and some policies which were a little of both

30. Richard Haas “Despite some noteworthy achievements in foreign as well as domestic policy, the Clinton era was marked by a preference for symbolism over substance and short-term crisis management over long-term strategizing. Unlike domestic policy, however, foreign policy suffered from a lack of presidential interest, attention, and respect. It suffered, in short, from malign neglect.”

31. Richard Haas “The administration's early experiments -- "democratic enlargement" for a goal and "assertive multilateralism" for a strategy -- were quickly abandoned, with ad hoc decision- making becoming the norm. Administration supporters speak of the complexity of post-Cold War international relations, the need for flexibility, and so forth, but no such rationalizations can hide the fact that ‘ad hoc-racy’ is no virtue.”

32. Richard Haas “Giving foreign policy the attention it deserved over the last several years would have required a president willing to invest political capital in the absence of political pressure. … The mass media, meanwhile, devoted less time and space to international issues. Following such trends rather than fighting them was the easiest course -- and the one Clinton chose. He gave the American people the foreign policy that polls suggested they wanted -- unlike a truly great president, who would have tried to lead them toward the foreign policy they needed.”

33. Mead and Skinner “On Clinton’s watch, the United States avoided major international conflict while retaining its position as the most powerful nation on earth. The power and prestige which the United States enjoyed at the time of his inauguration will be passed, essentially intact, to his successor, and the chances of major international conflict are, if anything, somewhat less in 2000 than they were in 1992. That may not be as dramatic a legacy as some, including President Clinton, might wish, but in the last analysis it is enough.” Walter Mead and Benjamin Skinner, “The C+ President”

34. Mead and Skinner “On balance then, the president gets a C+ or, perhaps in this era of grade inflation, a B-. Clinton will not be remembered as one of the most outstanding practitioners of U.S. foreign policy. Though disappointing to the president’s friends, this is not necessarily bad for the United States. Happy the nation whose annals are blank, and, in general, the United States was a happy country on President Clinton’s watch.” Walter Mead and Benjamin Skinner, “The C+ President”

35. C+ Grade?