California Energy Commission Preliminary 2015 IEPR Production Cost Model Common Case Input Assumptions 2015 IEPR Webinar https://energy.webex.com/ Meeting.

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Presentation transcript:

California Energy Commission Preliminary 2015 IEPR Production Cost Model Common Case Input Assumptions 2015 IEPR Webinar Meeting number: Meeting password: March 10, 2015 Angela Tanghetti, Garry Mariscal and Paul Deaver Supply Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division 1

California Energy Commission Introduction Topics to Cover – Final IEPR 2013 Compared to Preliminary IEPR 2015 Mid, Low and High Energy Consumption Cases: GHG Price Projections – Angela Tanghetti OTC Compliance Plans – Angela Tanghetti Hydro Generation Projections – Angela Tanghetti

California Energy Commission Introduction – Continued RPS Projections and Assumptions – Garry Mariscal Selected Simulation Results – Paul Deaver Next Steps – Angela Tanghetti

California Energy Commission Final 2013 IEPR GHG Price Projections

California Energy Commission Preliminary 2015 IEPR GHG Price Projections Source: California Energy Commission's Preliminary 2015 IEPR Carbon Price Projections Assumptions

California Energy Commission Ahead of Schedule On Schedule Behind Schedule Alamitos (1,2) San Onofre (2,3) Huntington Beach (3, 4) Haynes (5,6) El Segundo (3) Contra Costa (6,7) El Segundo (4) Morro Bay (3, 4) Scattergood (3) Encina (1,2,3,4,5) Moss Landing (6,7) Pittsburg (5,6) Redondo Beach (5,6,7,8) Huntington Beach (1,2) Alamitos (5,6) Mandalay (1,2) Ormand Beach (1,2) Scattergood (1,2) Haynes (1,2) Alamitos (3,4) Diablo Canyon (1,2) Harbor (5) Haynes (8) Moss Landing (1,2) Preliminary 2015 IEPR OTC Compliance Plans Owners Compliance Dates SWRCB Compliance Dates Compliance plans are identical across all three common cases MW

California Energy Commission California Monthly Hydroelectric Generation 2012, 2013, 2014 (Plants 10 MW and Larger) Source: QFER CEC-1304 Power Plant Reporting Statistics

California Energy Commission California Average Monthly Hydroelectric Generation (Plants 10 MW and Larger) Low levels of hydroelectric generation in 2012 and 2013 pulled the average down marginally. Actual 2014 generation shown for comparison. Source: QFER CEC-1304 Power Plant Reporting Statistics Preliminary 2015 IEPR (Ave ) 2013 IEPR ( Ave )

California Energy Commission WECC State by State Average Annual Hydroelectric Generation Source: Energy Information Administration Forms 906 and 923, Alberta Electric System Operator Average hydro generation forecast is identical across all three common cases 2013 IEPR ( ) Preliminary 2015 IEPR ( )

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California Energy Commission Comments? 2015 IEPR Docket Click on “Submit e-comment” Choose 15-IEPR-03 from menu You may leave comments directly or upload documents 17

California Energy Commission Questions? Angela Tanghetti (916) Garry Mariscal (916) Paul Deaver (916)