El Niño Updates Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA December 2015.

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Presentation transcript:

El Niño Updates Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA December 2015

2 El Niño Updates Pacific Ocean continues to maintain and support El Niño conditions El Niño has been in strong category since Oct. 1st Could rank among the top three strongest since 1950 Latest ENSO * Information El Niño Advisory since March * ENSO stands for El Niño Southern Oscillation

3 El Niño Updates Normal Pacific Pattern

4 El Niño Updates El Niño Pattern

5 El Niño Updates Classic El Niño Winter Impacts in North America

6 El Niño Updates Warmer water across the Central Pacific (black box is ENSO Region 3.4) Latest SST Anomaly 2.9°C

7 El Niño Updates Sub-Surface Temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific (0-450m) Ocean Surface About 1,500 feet below

8 El Niño Updates Where Does This El Niño Rank? Strongest Past El Nino’s

9 El Niño Updates ENSO Model Predictions Neutral Winter Summer Weak to Moderate Strong

10 El Niño Updates

11 El Niño Updates

12 El Niño Updates

14 El Niño Updates Strong El Niño Precip Results

15 El Niño Updates Sierra Snowpack since Oct 1st 60 percent of normal

16 El Niño Updates Monthly Percent of Normal During Past Strong El Niños

17 El Niño Updates

18 El Niño Updates

19 El Niño Updates El Niño tilts the odds of above normal rainfall for southwest California this winter Strong El Niño and among top three strongest One El Niño winter will not end the drought Wildfires remain a threat until we see widespread soaking rains El Niño Conclusions

20 El Niño Updates More numerous storms compared with other winters (especially January-March) Potential Winter Impacts Coastal flooding

21 El Niño Updates More numerous storms compared with other winters (especially January-March) Potential Winter Impacts Coastal damage

22 El Niño Updates More numerous storms compared with other winters (especially January-March) Potential Winter Impacts Floods

23 El Niño Updates T.A.D.D. Over half of all flood-related drownings occur when a vehicle is driven into moving flood water. The next highest percentage of flood-related deaths is due to walking into or near flood waters. Turn Around Don't Drown® How much water will float your car?

24 El Niño Updates Stay Aware of Weather Predictions Follow NWS on social media and web Listen to local media on TV, radio, or Internet Prepare and Take Action Improve drainage and water issues now Check emergency kits; flood insurance? Receive warning notifications through NWS system or apps from FEMA, ARC, etc. What Should People Do?

25 El Niño Updates Flash Flood Watch : Issued when potential exists for widespread flash flooding in next hours. Flash Flood Warning : Dangerous, property and life-threatening flash flooding or debris flows are imminent or occurring. NOAA Weather Radio alarm, EAS activation, & Wireless Emergency Alert Flood Advisory: Nuisance flooding and/or small debris flows are imminent or occurring. Not considered a threat to life or property. Watch/Warning/Advisory Follow The Instructions of Local Officials When Provided

26 El Niño Updates Thank You! Questions? Eric Boldt NWSLosAngeles

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