Case study of a gust front passing the Danish island Funen on 9 November 2008 Majken Demant Meteorologist, aviation forecaster, DMI Eumetcal.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Advertisements

Creating AEW diagnostics. As seen in case studies and composites, AEWs are characterized by a ‘wavelike’ perturbation to the mid-tropospheric wind field.

Examining the Damaging New England Windstorm of February 2010 as a Shapiro-Keyser Cyclone Stacie Hanes/NOAA NWS Gray ME Jim Hayes/NOAA NWS Mount.

Focus on surface wind events in Ireland on the morning of 18 th January 1 Michelle Dillon, Aviation Forecaster November 2007.

Chapter 6 Section 6.4 Goals: Look at vertical distribution of geostrophic wind. Identify thermal advection, and backing and veering winds. Look at an example.

An Analysis of Gust Front Activity on 14 June 2006 Chris Bonanno Florida Institute of Technology Rain Shaft.

Cold Fronts and their relationship to density currents: A case study and idealised modelling experiments Victoria Sinclair University of HelsinkI David.

Niels Woetmann Nielsen Danish Meteorological Institute

Forecasting Polar Lows Gunnar Noer The Norwegian Meteorological Institute in Tromsø.

The Forecast Process. Objectives Develop a best practice scheme for the use of data in producing a forecast Produce a ‘flow chart’ illustrating this for.

Holly A. Anderson Spring 2007 – Synoptic II Florida State University Introduction On December 10, 1995, Buffalo, New York experienced a record-breaking.

Aspects of 6 June 2007: A Null “Moderate Risk” of Severe Weather Jonathan Kurtz Department of Geosciences University of Nebraska at Lincoln NOAA/NWS Omaha/Valley,

Danielle M. Kozlowski NASA USRP Intern. Background Motivation Forecasting convective weather is a challenge for operational forecasters Current numerical.

An Overview of Environmental Conditions and Forecast Implications of the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak Richard L. Thompson and Roger Edwards Presentation.

Northeast Convective Flash Floods: Helping Forecasters Stay Ahead of Rising Water Joe Villani - National Weather Service, Albany, NY Derek Mallia - University.

Analysis and forecast of a weather situation Severe precipitations and thunderstorms on the 7 th of October 2009 J. Neméghaire RMIB – Belgium November.

Warm-Season Lake-/Sea-Breeze Severe Weather in the Northeast Patrick H. Wilson, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Department of Earth and Atmospheric.

Warm-Season Lake-/Sea-Breeze Severe Weather in the Northeast Patrick H. Wilson, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Department of Earth and Atmospheric.

MAPH40410 Synoptic Meteorology Meteorology M.Sc. Peter Lynch Meteorology & Climate Centre School of Mathematical Sciences University College Dublin.

The August 9, 2001 Lake Breeze Severe Weather Event Across New York and Western New England Thomas A. Wasula NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany.

The supercell storm Anthony R. Lupo Atms 4310 / 7310 Lab 12.

Maintenance of a Mesoscale Convective System over Lake Michigan Nicholas D. Metz and Lance F. Bosart Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University.

An Examination of the March 1-2, 2009 East Coast Gravity Wave Using High- Resolution Operational Data Sets Alan M. Cope NOAA/National Weather Service Mount.

Characteristics of Isolated Convective Storms Meteorology 515/815 Spring 2006 Christopher Meherin.

Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting. The National Weather Service The National Weather Service (NWS) is responsible for forecasts several times.

Operationnal use of high resolution model AROME image source: Sander Tijm, KNMI.

Roll or Arcus Cloud Supercell Thunderstorms.

Determining Favorable Days for Summertime Severe Convection in the Deep South Chad Entremont NWS Jackson, MS.

Hongli Jiang, Yuanfu Xie, Steve Albers, Zoltan Toth

Convective indexes calculated from HIRLAM output St.Petersburg The Russian State Hydrometeorological University Faculty of Meteorology Meteorological Forecasting.

New statistical approach for hail storm nowcasting: case study of severe thunderstorm developed on 28 June 2007 over northeast Bulgaria Boryana Markova.

Verification and Case Studies for Urban Effects in HIRLAM Numerical Weather Forecasting A. Baklanov, A. Mahura, C. Petersen, N.W. Nielsen, B. Amstrup Danish.

Blended Course on the Principles of Satellite Meteorology 21 st April – 15 th July 2009 Classroom June 2009 Final Presentation – Convection – 09May2009.

Soundings and Adiabatic Diagrams for Severe Weather Prediction and Analysis Continued.

WV images to diagnose the context favourable for deep convection Patrick Santurette Forecast Laboratory METEO-FRANCE Christo Georgiev National Institute.

Cloud Evolution and the Sea Breeze Front

Thunderstorm Structure and Evolution Eric A. Pani The University of Louisiana at Monroe.

March 14, 2001 Bow Echo in Southeast Texas – A Mid-Altitude Radial Convergence Case Study Paul Lewis II.

Dynamic tropopause analysis; What is the dynamic tropopause?

Bay Effect Snow from the Chesapeake Bay David F. Hamrick WPC Meteorologist College Park, Maryland.

Severe weather events in Southern Brazil and their similarity with events in the United States Bruno Ribeiro, Lance Bosart National Institute for Space.

Prolonged heavy rain episode in Lithuania on 5-8 July 2007 Izolda Marcinonienė Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service.

Purpose To deepen your knowledge to use satellite images for practical nowcasting during situations of summer convection  Model monitoring  Interpretation.

GOES Sounder Hyper-spectral Environmental Suite (HES) Data from the HES will revolutionize short-term weather forecasting Impact on short-term weather.

Manual PV modifications; a measure of forecaster's expertise Karine Maynard, Philippe Arbogast CNRM/GAME, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France.

NWP models. Strengths and weaknesses. Morten Køltzow, met.no NOMEK

Analysis for the Structure of Meso-scale Convective Systems on Squall Line Process on July at Shanghai Liu shuyuan Sun Jian ( CAMS, Beijing, China.

Conditions for Convection The Ingredients Method.

Meteorologisk institutt met.no Mountain waves in Norway A case study (4. Nov ) ‏ Eumetcal NWP course, Dec 2009 Sevim Müller.

VISITview Teletraining Nearcasting Convection using GOES Sounder Data 1 ROBERT M. AUNE AND RALPH PETERSEN NOAA/ASPB/STAR JORDAN GERTH AND SCOTT LINDSTROM.

Class #26: Friday October 30 Thunderstorms 1Class #26: Friday, October 30, 2009.

HIRLAM coupled to the ocean wave model WAM. Verification and improvements in forecast skill. Morten Ødegaard Køltzow, Øyvind Sætra and Ana Carrasco. The.

Heavy Rain Climatology of Upper Michigan Jonathan Banitt National Weather Service Marquette MI.

Waterspout forecasting indices over the Adriatic Sea computed from operational ALADIN model data Martina Tudor, Tanja Renko and Tomislav Kozarić Meteorological.

The Course of Synoptic Meteorology

Principles of weather forecasting

Vorticity Vertical component of vorticity: i.e., the rotation about the local vertical There are three types of vorticity used in geophysical fluid dynamics.

AOS 101 Cyclone Structure April 22/24 April 29/May 1.

AOS 100: Weather and Climate

Alan F. Srock and Lance F. Bosart

Meteorological charts

Oct. 26, 2005 Vertical Wind Shear

Tony Wimmers, Wayne Feltz

Surface Meteorological charts

The Course of Meteorological Instrumentation and Observations

IHOP Convection Initiation And Storm Evolution Studies

Nowcast guidance of afternoon convection initiation for Taiwan

The Course of Synoptic Meteorology

MPEF DIVergence product Interpretation scheme

Surface Meteorological charts

Presentation transcript:

Case study of a gust front passing the Danish island Funen on 9 November 2008 Majken Demant Meteorologist, aviation forecaster, DMI Eumetcal NWP Applications course, Helsinki, 30 November - 4 December 2009

What happened? 800 tons of steel (”small” crane) knocked over by big crane Wind gust/squall at 110 m height reported to be ~ 32 m/s ~ 5 minutes NWP predicted wind speed at 110 m: 15 m/s !

Synoptic situation Occluding frontal system has just passed the shipyard… …followed by a SW-ly flow of unstable cold air Surface analysis at 1200 UTC on 9 November 2008

Radar images 1136 UTC1146 UTC1156 UTC 1206 UTC1216 UTC1226 UTC

Wind observations from SYNOPs on island Funen

Assens/Torø Local time (UTC+1h) Mean wind speed v10m (m/s) T2m (°C) Max gust: 25.2 m/s

Wind observations from SYNOPs on island Funen Odense/Beldringe Mean wind speed v10m (m/s) T2m (°C) Max gust: 22.1 m/s Local time (UTC+1h)

Wind observations from SYNOPs on island Funen Årslev Mean wind speed v10m (m/s) T2m (°C) Max gust: 20.6 m/s Local time (UTC+1h)

Wind observations from SYNOPs on island Funen Sydfyn/Tåsinge Mean wind speed v10m (m/s) T2m (°C) Max gust: 16.5 m/s Local time (UTC+1h)

Upper level analyses and soundings MSLP and 500 hPa geopot. height & temp. 12 UTC06 UTC De Kooy/Den HelderSchleswig Soundings

IR satellite image

Evidence: Elongated radar echo with narrow line of high reflectivity Sudden peak winds and temperature drops coinciding with passage of radar echo at four individual SYNOP stations Unstable air mass Strong east-moving trough (positive vorticity advection, increasing with height) Strong veering and increase in wind speed with height

=>Conceptual model: Gust front

HIRLAM-S05 6H prognosis valid 12 UTC 10 m wind For comparison: Observed 10 m gusts on island Funen: 25.2 m/s 22.1 m/s 20.6 m/s 16.5 m/s m/s Barbs: mean wind Colours: gusts

HIRLAM-S05 6H prognosis valid 12 UTC 850 hPa mean wind For comparison: Observed 10 m gusts on island Funen: 25.2 m/s 22.1 m/s 20.6 m/s 16.5 m/s m/s

HIRLAM-S05 6H prognosis valid 12 UTC Instability index

Conclusions Peak 10 m winds were not predicted by HIRLAM-S05, i.e. gust front not resolved by the model Indications from HIRLAM-S hPa wind field that the squall line phenomenon was to some extent predicted by the model No distinct conclusion to draw from HIRLAM-S05 instability index prediction in this case

Recommendations Direct model output should not be blindly trusted – especially when phenomena of smaller scale than the model resolution can occur In case of organized convection and gust fronts, (NWP-predicted) winds aloft (e.g. at 850 hPa level) could be a fair indicator of low level gust potential, perhaps in combination with Instability index For nowcasting purposes: Always monitor nearby (wind) observations and radar images – look out for signs of downdrafts or gust fronts Human forecaster can add value to direct model output

Questions? Thanks to my colleagues Thomas Mørk Madsen Niels Woetmann Nielsen Claus Petersen for their help with retrieving data