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Meteorologisk institutt met.no Mountain waves in Norway A case study (4. Nov. 2009 ) ‏ Eumetcal NWP course, Dec 2009 Sevim Müller.

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Presentation on theme: "Meteorologisk institutt met.no Mountain waves in Norway A case study (4. Nov. 2009 ) ‏ Eumetcal NWP course, Dec 2009 Sevim Müller."— Presentation transcript:

1 Meteorologisk institutt met.no Mountain waves in Norway A case study (4. Nov. 2009 ) ‏ Eumetcal NWP course, Dec 2009 Sevim Müller

2 Meteorologisk institutt met.no Motivation X Helsinki Characteristics of Norway: -Mountains (up to ca. 2500m)‏ -Fjords -Neighbouring the N-Atlantic  Weather is very sensitive to local effects  Mountain waves are a serious thread

3 Meteorologisk institutt met.no Mountain waves – ”Ingredients” - stable atmosphere - lee-side amplifying: wind is decreasing and/or stability increases from mountain top heights and upover - strong turbulence: 50 kt in 850 hPa (be aware: 40 kt in 925 hPa)‏

4 Meteorologisk institutt met.no Strong leewind / downslope wind Rotor with weak wind and/or wind of the opposite direction Turbulent areas Mountain waves Courtesy of Eirik Samuelsen

5 Meteorologisk institutt met.no Available data / Methods Observations Mainy Synop and Metar, (satellites)‏ Models ECMWF, HIRLAM 12KM + 8 KM + 4 KM, UM 4KM +1KM, SIMRA (250 M)‏ Other tools Vertical cross sections and vertical soundings

6 Meteorologisk institutt met.no 4. November 2009 – 12 UTC Mainy Synop and Metar, (satellites)‏

7 Meteorologisk institutt met.no 4. November 2009 – 18 UTC Mainy Synop and Metar, (satellites)‏

8 Meteorologisk institutt met.no 4. November 2009 – Metar Sandnessjøen and Brønnøysund ENST 040950Z 06007KT 030V150 CAVOK 07/M03 Q1004= ENST 041050Z 07011KT 360V160 9999 FEW025 BKN100 08/M03 Q1004= ENST 041150Z 03007KT 330V150 CAVOK 08/M03 Q1004= ENST 041250Z 06010G20KT 030V180 CAVOK 08/M03 Q1004= ENST 041350Z 04006KT 300V110 CAVOK 08/M04 Q1004= ENST 041450Z VRB08G16KT 9999 FEW050 SCT080 08/M02 Q1005= ENST 041550Z VRB07G18KT CAVOK 07/M02 Q1006= ENBN 040950Z 14017G30KT 110V190 CAVOK 07/M03 Q1003= ENBN 041050Z 13017G32KT 100V160 CAVOK 07/M02 Q1003 RMK/RWY22 14028G44KT= ENBN 041220Z 14024G50KT 100V200 CAVOK 07/M02 Q1003= ENBN 041250Z 14022G37KT 100V170 9999 FEW045 SCT120 07/01 Q1002 RMK/RWY22 13035G52KT 100V160= ENBN 041320Z 13036G54KT 100V170 9999 FEW045 BKN120 0/M01 Q1002 RMK/RWY22 14045G66KT= ENBN 041350Z 14037G58KT 100V160 9999 FEW035 SCT120 07/M01 Q1001= ENBN 041450Z VRB06KT 9999 FEW035 SCT120 07/M02 Q1005= ENBN 041550Z 12021G49KT 090V160 9999 FEW035 SCT100 07/M01 Q1005=

9 Meteorologisk institutt met.no 4. November 2009 – Metar Sandnessjøen and Brønnøysund ENST 040950Z 06007KT 030V150 CAVOK 07/M03 Q1004= ENST 041050Z 07011KT 360V160 9999 FEW025 BKN100 08/M03 Q1004= ENST 041150Z 03007KT 330V150 CAVOK 08/M03 Q1004= ENST 041250Z 06010G20KT 030V180 CAVOK 08/M03 Q1004= ENST 041350Z 04006KT 300V110 CAVOK 08/M04 Q1004= ENST 041450Z VRB08G16KT 9999 FEW050 SCT080 08/M02 Q1005= ENST 041550Z VRB07G18KT CAVOK 07/M02 Q1006= ENBN 040950Z 14017G30KT 110V190 CAVOK 07/M03 Q1003= ENBN 041050Z 13017G32KT 100V160 CAVOK 07/M02 Q1003 RMK/RWY22 14028G44KT= ENBN 041220Z 14024G50KT 100V200 CAVOK 07/M02 Q1003= ENBN 041250Z 14022G37KT 100V170 9999 FEW045 SCT120 07/01 Q1002 RMK/RWY22 13035G52KT 100V160= ENBN 041320Z 13036G54KT 100V170 9999 FEW045 BKN120 0/M01 Q1002 RMK/RWY22 14045G66KT= ENBN 041350Z 14037G58KT 100V160 9999 FEW035 SCT120 07/M01 Q1001= ENBN 041450Z VRB06KT 9999 FEW035 SCT120 07/M02 Q1005= ENBN 041550Z 12021G49KT 090V160 9999 FEW035 SCT100 07/M01 Q1005= modfl

10 Meteorologisk institutt met.no 4. November 2009 – Metar Sandnessjøen ENST 032050Z VRB05KT 9999 FEW040 SCT080 10/02 Q0999= ENST 040350Z 11010KT 040V210 9999 SKC 08/M06 Q1000= ENST 040450Z 13015G25KT 070V200 9999 SKC 09/M07 Q1001= ENST 040550Z 13013G24KT 040V250 9999 SKC 09/M07 Q1000= ENST 040650Z 13016G33KT 050V240 9999 SKC 10/M07 Q1002= ENST 040750Z 14010KT 050V230 9999 SKC 08/M06 Q1003= ENST 040850Z 14008KT 030V210 CAVOK 07/M05 Q1003= ENST 040950Z 06007KT 030V150 CAVOK 07/M03 Q1004= ENST 041050Z 07011KT 360V160 9999 FEW025 BKN100 08/M03 Q1004= ENST 041150Z 03007KT 330V150 CAVOK 08/M03 Q1004= ENST 041250Z 06010G20KT 030V180 CAVOK 08/M03 Q1004= ENST 041350Z 04006KT 300V110 CAVOK 08/M04 Q1004= ENST 041450Z VRB08G16KT 9999 FEW050 SCT080 08/M02 Q1005= ENST 041550Z VRB07G18KT CAVOK 07/M02 Q1006= ENST 041650Z 11013G25KT 030V210 CAVOK 07/M02 Q1007= ENST 041750Z VRB06G16KT 9999 FEW045 SCT060 07/M02 Q1008= ENST 041850Z 10013KT 040V150 9999 FEW045 SCT060 07/M02 Q1008=

11 Meteorologisk institutt met.no 4. November 2009 – Metar Brønnøysund ENBN 040650Z 09022G32KT CAVOK 07/M03 Q1001 RMK/RWY22 11026G38KT= ENBN 040750Z 14013G25KT CAVOK 07/M04 Q1003= ENBN 040850Z 14014G41KT 090V220 CAVOK 07/M03 Q1003= ENBN 040920Z 14017G47KT 070V220 CAVOK 07/M03 Q1003= ENBN 040950Z 14017G30KT 110V190 CAVOK 07/M03 Q1003= ENBN 041050Z 13017G32KT 100V160 CAVOK 07/M02 Q1003 RMK/RWY22 14028G44KT= ENBN 041220Z 14024G50KT 100V200 CAVOK 07/M02 Q1003= ENBN 041250Z 14022G37KT 100V170 9999 FEW045 SCT120 07/01 Q1002 RMK/RWY22 13035G52KT 100V160= ENBN 041320Z 13036G54KT 100V170 9999 FEW045 BKN120 0/M01 Q1002 RMK/RWY22 14045G66KT= ENBN 041350Z 14037G58KT 100V160 9999 FEW035 SCT120 07/M01 Q1001= ENBN 041450Z VRB06KT 9999 FEW035 SCT120 07/M02 Q1005= ENBN 041550Z 12021G49KT 090V160 9999 FEW035 SCT100 07/M01 Q1005= ENBN 041650Z 12029G48KT 090V160 9999 FEW035 SCT100 07/M02 Q1005= ENBN 041750Z 12029G55KT 100V160 9999 FEW035 SCT100 07/M01 Q1005= ENBN 041850Z 13025G44KT 080V170 9999 FEW035 SCT100 07/M02 Q1006= ENBN 041950Z 15023G37KT 110V170 9999 FEW035 SCT120 07/M02 Q1007=

12 Meteorologisk institutt met.no Forecast for 4. nov. 2009 Land forecast issued 3. nov. 2009, 11 UTC: Southeast breeze, gale force 8 at exposed places, possibly brief periods with severe gale force 9. Land forecast issued 4. nov. 2009, 11 UTC: Southeast near gale force 7 at exposed places, in periods gale force 8, in south severe gale force 9. Brønnøysund TAF: ENBN 040500Z 0406/0415 13015KT CAVOK TEMPO 0406/0415 13030G50KT= ENBN 040800Z 0409/0418 13015KT CAVOK TEMPO 0409/0418 13030G50KT= AMD ENBN 041100Z 0412/0421 13025G35KT CAVOK TEMPO 0412/0421 13045G60KT= ENBN 041100Z 0412/0421 13025G35KT CAVOK TEMPO 0412/0421 13045G60KT= ENBN 041400Z 0415/0423 13025G35KT CAVOK TEMPO 0415/0423 13045G60KT= ENBN 041700Z 0418/0423 13020G35KT CAVOK TEMPO 0418/0423 13040G55KT= ENBN 042000Z 0421/0423 14020G35KT 9999 FEW030 SCT100 TEMPO 0421/0423 13040G55KT=

13 Meteorologisk institutt met.no 4. Nov. 2009 – Synoptic situation Mainy Synop and Metar, (satellites)‏

14 Meteorologisk institutt met.no 4. Nov. 2009 – Synoptic situation Mainy Synop and Metar, (satellites)‏

15 Meteorologisk institutt met.no Vertical cross section - 06z UM 4km – 20091104 06z – Theta-field (white lines), wind arrows, wind strength (coloured)

16 Meteorologisk institutt met.no Vertical cross section - 12z UM 4km – 20091104 12z – Theta-field (white lines), wind arrows, wind strength (coloured)

17 Meteorologisk institutt met.no Conclusion Forecast more wind. Models are quite good understanding the general situation but did not forecast this strong gusts. Human forecasters forecast stronger winds and mountain waves, but not enough and not exact timing. To forecast strong turbulence / gusting use (amongst others): vertical cross sections.

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