Monetary Policy Update 2008:2. Repo rate raised to 4.75 per cent Repo rate will remain at same level during the year It may be necessary to reduce the.

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Presentation transcript:

Monetary Policy Update 2008:2

Repo rate raised to 4.75 per cent Repo rate will remain at same level during the year It may be necessary to reduce the rate in 2009 To attain the inflation target of two per cent

Inflation is high Inflation expectations are high Higher cost pressures Repo rate raised

Lower oil and commodity prices Weaker growth in Sweden and abroad Repo rate path lowered

Repo rate raised to 4.75% Per cent, quarterly averages Note: Broken line represent the Riksbank’s forecastsSource: The Riksbank

Inflation is high Annual percentage change Note: Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecasts Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Inflation expectations still high Annual percentage change Sources: NIER and Statistics Sweden Note: The latest outcomes for CPI and the companies’ inflation expectations are from July and the latest outcome for households’ expectation is from August

Inflation expectations high Inflation expectations of various participants two years ahead Annual percentage change Source: Prospera Research AB Note: Last outcome is from 18 June

Weak productivity Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Note: Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecasts Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Lower oil and commodity prices Weaker growth in Sweden and internationally Interest rate path lowered

Oil price still high USD per barrel Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank Note. Futures are calculated as a 15-day average

Weaker GDP growth in Sweden Quarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate Note: Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecasts Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Employment Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data Note: Broken line represent the Riksbank’s forecasts Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Pessimistic households Confidence figures for households, net figures Sources: European Commission, NIER, and University of Michigan

Continued financial unease Basis points Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank Note: The difference is calculated as the difference between the three-month interbank rate and the three-month overnight index swap.

Uncertainties in the interest rate forecast +Higher inflation +Lower productivity +Inflation expectations ±Energy and commodity prices –Poorer economic growth –Financial unease

Repo rate a forecast – not a promise Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The RiksbankNote: Broken line represents the Riksbank’s forecast

Higher inflation and lower growth also globally Annual percentage change Sources: OECD and the Riksbank Note: CPI outcome is monthly data and the forecast is an annual average