Futurism Workshop Structured brainstorming about the future March 15, 2008

Futurism Workshop2 Why is the future important? Source: GBN

Futurism Workshop3 Source: GBN Why think about the future? US Oil Drilling Scenarios, : the future looks clear

Futurism Workshop4 Why think about the future? US Oil Drilling, : discontinuities happen all the time Source: GBN 1. Estimated 2. Actual

Futurism Workshop5 Step 1: Determine Decision Issue  Criteria  Sufficient issue breadth, time range  Possible examples  What will science be like in 2020?  What will US competitiveness be like in 2020?  How will globalization impact science in 2020? Action: Group Brainstorm

Futurism Workshop6 Step 2: Brainstorm Driving Forces  “PESTE”  Political  Economic  Social (e.g.; what will social aspects of science be like in 2020?)  Technological  Environmental Action: Group Brainstorm

Futurism Workshop7 Step 3: Vote on Driving Forces  Each person has 2 blank post-its  Please walk up to the board and vote for two Driving Forces with your post-its  The moderator will tabulate what the group finds to be the two most important Driving Forces Action: Group Vote

Futurism Workshop8 Step 4: Map Scenarios  Map top two Driving Forces to Scenario quadrants (example: customer demand and interest rates) High DemandLow Demand High RatesLow Rates High RatesLow Rates High Demand Low Demand

Futurism Workshop9 Step 5: Small Group Deliberation  Each of 4 groups is assigned one scenario  Please spend minutes discussing what it would be like in your scenario (PESTE: political, economic, social, technological, environmental) Anti-Western Norms Pro-Western Norms Economic Growth Economic Stagnation Davos WorldPax Americana Cycle of Fear A New Caliphate

Futurism Workshop10 Step 6: Scenario Planning Debrief  Looking at the Decision Issue, (e.g.; “What will the Philadelphia economy be like in 2010?”), the group determined the two key driving forces of (e.g.; demand, rates) and discussed 4 possible future scenarios  Next step would be forming an action plan for each scenario and a list of early warning indicators to track High Rates Low Rates High Demand Low Demand Scenario 1Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4