Estimating migration in a region of the UK – the potential of administrative data sources UNECE meeting - Edinburgh 20 Nov 2006 Robert Beatty

Outline of talk Northern Ireland How important is migration in Northern Ireland? The UK International Passenger Survey Administrative sources The future

How important is migration to Northern Ireland? Sizepercentage Population1.7 million100 Births+22, % Deaths-15, % Out migration-20, % In migration+20, % Net migration00 All causes+7, %

How important is migration to Northern Ireland? Sizepercentage Population1.7 million100 Births+22, % Deaths-15, % Out migration-20, % In migration (2005) +20,000 (+27,000) +1.2% (+1.6%) Net migration00 All causes (2005) +7,000 (+14,000) +0.4% (+0.8%)

Estimates of Net Migration in Northern Ireland (1973/ /05) Population Gain Population Loss Ceasefire EU Expansion

UK International Passenger Survey (IPS) Main data source to estimate migration at the UK level Several thousand emigrants & immigrants sampled each year But no sampling points in Northern Ireland About 10 sampled immigrants and 10 sampled emigrants each year state “Northern Ireland” as origin or destination

Need for administrative data UK IPS too small at regional level Also have land border with Ireland So rely on administrative data

Main source – registration with Health Service Any contact leads to registration Registration fairly complete (time lags?) Procedures broadly in line with UN definition of long-term migration Is a process of de-registration Estimates validated against Census of Population and other sources

Registration with Health Service - weaknesses Females more likely to register in timely fashion De-registration not complete Adjustments made for above Not able to measure short-term / migrant labour moves

Other administrative sources Worker Registration Scheme (A8 countries) Work permits (non-EU countries) National Insurance Numbers Births to foreign-born mothers Children without English as first language Need for translation services

Worker Registration Scheme Allows A8 citizens to work in UK 427,000 to June ,000 in Northern Ireland But.. Counts on way in only, not on way out Employees only, not self-employed or dependents

Administrative data Plenty of data sources But all incomplete / partial Lots of “counts in” Few “counts out” Limited information on length of stay

Current challenges Trying to reconcile administrative sources Get coherent picture Need for longitudinal data Need for data on short term migration and migrant labour

The future? Initially only UK, Ireland & Sweden opened labour markets to A – Bulgaria & Romania Balkan states / Turkey? Political / economic / migration policies?

UK and RoI Net Migration per 1,000 Population

Report detailing the research presented has been published on NISRA website

The end Thank you.