“NZ Residential Energy Use Dynamics, Knowledge & Realities” Alison Adams-Smith, MSc, MPlanPrac PhD Candidate, Victoria University

Introduction  2006 “Energy Outlook” business-as-usual - a 1% per yr increase in energy efficiency - next 25 yrs.  But actually an increase in energy demand over the last decade.  When will the reality of climate change actually kick in and influence energy use?

Proposal  Investigate climate change (cc) awareness and household energy consumption.  Develop a framework for relationships between residential energy demands and cc knowledge.  Build on surveys and modelling of energy choices - changes in cc awareness and energy use patterns.  Identify how government policy decisions influence cc knowledge and energy choices.

The Tipping Point  Increased cc knowledge related to increased energy efficiency - “The Tipping Point”?  Gladwells’: how social tipping points occur - what actions in society lead them.  How can this particular ‘social epidemic’ be tracked?  “that dramatic moment when little causes drive the unexpected to become expected and propel the idea of radical change to certain acceptance”

Key Areas  Energy demand context in NZ  How cc awareness & knowledge/household energy consumption change over time.  “Tipping Point” pattern identification.  Range of drivers of energy choices.  Current government and stakeholder policies energy choices.  Reshaping government policies - to more effective carbon emissions reduction from energy use.

Quantitative Assessment Modelling the influence of climate change experiences and knowledge on 1.Space/water heating; 2.Appliance use; 3.Vehicle purchase/use/use of transport alternatives 4.Discretionary activities which use energy; 5.Other residential energy uses; 6.Things people buy

The Questionnaire - climate change knowledge & awareness 1. What is climate change? 2. Is it happening / a problem? 3. How do you get information? 4. Personal contribution to climate change?

The Questionnaire - Current energy use actions 1.Demographics 2.Living/ work situation 3.Energy efficiency 4.Hot water 5.Lighting 6.Space heating  Thanks to Colmar Brunton

Knowledge/Actions Vs Values  Values now vs the future - intentions can’t be reliably answered.  Values - hard to quantify, not easily correlated with actual actions.  Actions taken now - better indicator of future actions, unless independent variables.  Energy use & efficiency linked to actual knowledge / awareness of cc – both must be done in real time.  Poll over several years - limited extrapolation to future.

Conclusions…