MRPO Technical Approach “Nearer” Term Overview For: Emissions Modeling Meteorological Modeling Photochemical Modeling & Domain Model Performance Evaluation Regulatory Support These approaches are dynamic and will change as emissions, met, chemistry, and deposition processes evolve and hopefully improve

Emissions Currently 1999 NEI v2 MOBILE6 BEIS3/BIOME3* CMU Ammonia 1995 Canadian anthropogenic Moving Toward 2002 Emissions submitted from the States MOBILE6** BEIS3/BIOME3* CMU Ammonia Newer Canadian Inventory *Day Specific**Day Specific for Summer Months

MM5 Current Setup Explicit Moisture: Simple ice PBL: Pleim-Xiu Multi-Layer Soil Model: Pleim-Xiu Radiation: RRTM Cumulus: Kain-Fritsch 4-D Data Assimilation: Analysis nudging on; only above PBL Future Obtain annual 2002 simulation using latest version of MM5 and with water phase mixing ratios explicitly output Obtain EPA annual 2001 simulation

Other Model Inputs Initial and Boundary conditions: –Currently: profile (v6) released with CMAQ –Switching to GEOS-CHEM output when available –Simulations spin up 2 weeks to minimize impact Landuse (11 categories): –USGS landuse Ozone Column: –Daily TOMS ozone column data Albedo: –Monthly albedo based on 10 years of TOMS reflectivity data Photolysis Rates: –TUV4.0 processor using the discrete ordinate algorithm; –daily rates files based on daily O3 column and monthly albedo

CAMx4 CB4 gas-phase chemistry Semi-volatile secondary organic aerosol module ISORROPIA thermodynamics module PPM horizontal transport, implicit vertical transport RADM based aqueous phase chemistry (same as CMAQ) Sub-grid plume treatment: TBD Platform –RedHat Linux PCs –Portland Group Fortran Compiler *Plan to apply CMAQ and REMSAD to specific episodes as a QA step

MM5 Domain (light yellow) –165 X, 129 Y, 35 Z –36 km cells CAMx Domain (dark yellow) –97 X, 90 Y, 14 Z –36 km cells Lambert projection –Center (-97,40) –True latitudes (33,45)

Model Performance IMPROVE –24 hr samples every 3 days –PM2.5 Speciation Super Sites & Special Studies –Hourly gases and meteorology –Hourly/daily PM2.5 Speciation EPA Speciation –24 hr samples every 3 days –PM2.5 Speciation March Midwest –daily 24 hr samples –PM2.5 Speciation –NH3, HNO3, HNO2, SO2 AIRS -- not shown –Hourly criteria pollutants TDL U.S. Airways – not shown –Hourly meteorological data

1. Biogenics 2. Other Area 3. Point 4. Nonroad 5. Onroad 6. Ammonia Source Apportionment Focusing on source apportionment runs to support strategy development De-emphasizing VOC, NOX, SO2, NH3 “generalized” emissions adjustments

Summary Transition this year from 1999 to 2002 based anthropogenic emissions Continue to use our 2002 MM5 36km simulation; may seek an updated 2002 MM5 36km run from another RPO Continual model performance for 2002 and other select episodes as emissions and meteorology change Iterative modeling process: continually updating emissions, met, and photochemical modeling until we essentially “run out of time” for SIP Strategy formulation process will be supported with source apportionment modeling rather than zero out runs or across the board emissions adjustments

Continental Domain v. Eastern Domain

15km Top v 6km Top