Observations of on-going Arctic change Nancy N. Soreide, NOAA PMEL, J. E. Overland, J. A. Richter-Menge, H. Eicken, H. Wiggins, J. Calder

Observations of on-going Arctic Change  The international Arctic Sea Ice Outlook  A community-wide summary of the expected September Arctic sea ice minimum.  The Arctic Report Card  A concise, scientifically credible and accessible source of information on recent changes in the Arctic.  Future of Arctic Sea Ice and Global Impacts  Summarizes important recent Arctic science results for a broader audience, beyond the science literature.

Sea Ice Outlook A community-wide summary of expected September Arctic sea ice minimum  Reports issued monthly throughout summer  Synthesize community- wide estimates  Scientific rationale of the range of estimates of expected minimum of sea ice  Not formal predictions for Arctic sea ice extent

The Arctic Report Card updated for 2010 Tracks recent environmental changes Play video from YouTube or local video fileYouTubelocal video file

Greenland Record-setting high air temperatures, ice loss by melting, and marine-terminating glacier loss. Highest rate melt since 1958, area and duration of ice sheet melt greater than any on record since Cumulative annual area changes for 35 of the widest Greenland ice sheet marine- terminating outlets. Greenland Record setting high temperatures, ice melt, and glacier area loss

Atmosphere There is evidence that the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere in fall is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes Dec average Atmosphere Arctic climate is impacting mid-latitude weather, as seen in Winter mb geopotential height field Dec 2009Feb 2010

Air temperature anomalies DEC 2009 This creates the Warm Arctic-Cold Continent Climate Pattern

December 2010 Cold Northern Europe and US East Coast More north-south flow & Negative NAO index Two Major winter events in a row Attribution Difficult! We can say that loss of sea ice pushes toward a greater chance for a breakdown of the Polar Vortex Also expect large impacts from Chaos, Snow, and Stratospheric influences

Sea Ice September minimum sea ice extent is third lowest recorded, and there is less thick multiyear sea ice in Beaufort Sea during summer Sea ice age for first week in March Sea Ice Summer sea ice conditions for previous four years well below 1980s and 1990s

Biology, Ocean, Land Many indications of warming Land Low winter snow accumulation, warm spring temperatures lead to record low snow cover duration Ocean Upper ocean showing year- to-year variability without significant trends Biology Rapid environmental change threatens to disrupt current natural cycles Record low snow cover duration in 2010.

Sea Ice Outlook  A community-wide summary of the expected September Arctic sea ice minimum  Reports are released monthly throughout the summer  Supported in part through the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Arctic Report Card  Scientifically credible, annually-updated website designed for managers, scientists and citizens  Updated annually  Supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office through the Arctic Research Program