Building Rockstar Estimating Skills Ron Smith Maritime DevCon

Estimating Agenda Manager (project start / end) – Dev (project start / end) Our focus changes as the project progresses You should test out your estimate when possible Communication and planning vs. technical ability Discussion Item Five – A Placeholder for text Is Estimation Art, Science, or a combination? Manager vs. Dev Brian Having the right resources at the right time Make the connection between estimation and corporate culture. Test your estimate Month over Month Want a promotion? Wanna Bet? Art or Science?

DEV - BRAIN I just want to start coding Does not sound that hard I’m busy – not much time for detail Need to present the funding amount for approval. Need to size the project correctly. I wonder if the person I’m speaking with usually under estimates, over estimates or is pretty good. I wonder if we will run into issues. MANAGER -BRAIN Manager Brain vs. Dev Project Startup… How long will it take to build a new customer screen?? 8 hours16 hours

Manager Brain vs. Dev Brain Does the Project Manager have the IRON CLAD details? Like a lawyer going in front of a judge pleading a case… Sr. Management will try to reduce the estimate The end client will try to reduce the estimate one “I don’t know” = funding cut.

DEV - BRAIN I’ve been to a lot of meetings Project Kick off (1 hour) Requirements gathering (3 hours) Requirements review (1 hour) 2 weekly teem meetings (2 hours) Now they want a prototype built… I can do that in 4 hours I’ll track total project spend per month. MANAGER -BRAIN Manager vs. Dev 3 weeks into project… How long will it take to build a new customer screen?? I forget my estimateNot focused

DEV - BRAIN I’ve built something great Client should be happy On to my next project Project is way over budget / time The business case is blown Client is already mad How am I going to explain this? Why did that 8 hour screen take 148 hours? MANAGER -BRAIN Manager Brain vs. Dev project closeout… How long will it take to build a new customer screen?? Detailed look

Promotion? Step 1: Don’t answer You are about to influence corporate culture. Step 2: Ask these questions Do I need to attend weekly or specific project meetings? Do I need to follow a formal process (which one)? Is a prototype required? Is there a working app today that I’ll be adding to – or is this net new? Does a db exist already? Do I have to interface with an outside Vendor? Does this have to work in the DR model? Will I be participating in requirements gathering? How long will it take to do x?? Estimating: Danger!!

Promotion? Step 2 (continued): Are you expecting a design or test cases from me? Will I be running Integration, System or UAT testing? How does this project rank among the other corporate projects? Are the requirements written already? Can I see them? Will I need to be on stand by to test with other projects? Will data be provided to me or is a sample dummy subset ok. How long will it take to do x?? Estimating: Danger!!

Promotion? Step 2 (continued): Would you like me to help with the Install? Will there be release / install docs? Any risks or dependencies to this work? What time of year are you running this project? Step 3: The answers above should come from your manager in writing. Add to the above list with your own questions. Keep a risk and issue log from past projects… bring them estimation time. How long will it take to do x?? Estimating: Danger!!

Promotion? Step 4 Keep your own personal estimation history with dates and write down who received it… Offer to help the manager with the estimate. Ask your manager for your % allocation by project and by Month How long will it take to do x?? Estimating: Danger!!

Planned: Budget for the work. Actual: What you billed / recorded Variance: The difference / plan Diff: Actual – Planned Companies must keep true historical record of their projects Compare your planned vs recorded time A second line of text can go here. Geographic RegionPlannedActualVarianceDiff Project %5 Project %50 Project %260 Maintenance %-5 Maintenance %5 TOTALS %305

SERVER SIDE 80% SCREENS WORKING Oracle 10g backend Standard SQL allowed Typical Web server Server (online) Oracle Lite (subset of structure) ANSI SQL (subset of SQL functions) Web Server: Oracle Web-to-Go normally used for handhelds Laptop (can work offline) CLIENT SIDE (0% WORKING) Test your Estimate / Re-Estimate Porting of screens example

Initial Estimate 1 / 2 day per screen 50 days Test your estimate 33 High – 4 days 33 Med – 3 days 34 LOW – 2 days 299 days Re-estimate… Land on 250 days Estimate / Test / Re-estimate Port 100 screens If you give me 3 days I can try one and that will allow us to make a good estimate.

Spreading your estimate over the months correctly is just as important as getting the total project estimate correct. Month over Month Spread of resources

Spreading your estimate over the months correctly is just as important as getting the total project estimate correct. If you can keep the team size consistent you will get faster. Month over Month Spread of resources

How many hours / day is the industry productive? 8-1 Ratio between your fastest and slowest resource in IT. Is there a technological or cultural factor measure? Some hard times of the year to run a project are Summer, March Break & Christmas. Are we getting faster over time? Are the same resources present? What is your corporate plan? Productivity

Wanna Bet? Have fun with Estimates Bet your team mates OR provide an incentive Give an estimate Wanna wager you are off by 50%? The team member with the closest estimate gets a prize. PERT (optimistic + likely*4 + pessimistic)/6 Note: Your company is betting the project will be worth it.

For each deliverable: Create, team reads, team reviews, update, check into CM. Code and fix bugs, source control, builds You may be reworking some deliverable as the project progresses List deliverables by stage and role Weekly team meeting Regular status reports List repeating meeting by person Overhead and resource engagement who need to be involved Sideline interaction by role Time of year Productivity per day You may be under a model that is supposed to get faster. You may have just inherited a process you need to learn You may have a new team Factor Productivity Art or Science Some science

Art or Science Evidence Based Scheduling – fogbugs Function Point counting – difficult with different technologies Shopping Cart Sizing Excel spreadsheet including total project Historical analysis

Estimation is an issue that needs buy-in from each individual resource to the CEO of a company to work well. Ron Smith: Mariner Maritimes JUG: Careertown: