U.S Drought Highlights Since October 2005 Douglas Le Comte NOAA/CPC 31st Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop October 23-27, 2006

Outline Drought HighlightsDrought Highlights Major development in the Southwest last winterMajor development in the Southwest last winter Plains states by summerPlains states by summer Near-record monsoon rains relieve Southwest drought.Near-record monsoon rains relieve Southwest drought. Drought Forecasts —How are we doing?Drought Forecasts —How are we doing?

The West Flip-Flops Once Again! Recent Cold Season ( ) Previous Cold Season ( )

October vs April Drought

Cold Season Precipitation Driest Dec-Feb in AZ 2 nd driest in NM and OK

Snow Water Content April 2006 Less than 10%!

Streamflow Forecasts April 1, 2006

Spring-Summer Changes 117 deg. F on 7/15 in Pierre SD NM = wettest Jun-Aug

Peak Drought Past 12 Months

Corn and Soybean Production Corn Belt did fine again

Drought Affected Cotton

Major Drought Impacts to Crops in the Plains— Lesser in the Southeast Durum wheat production dropped 47% from last year (mainly North Dakota drought)Durum wheat production dropped 47% from last year (mainly North Dakota drought) Oat production down 18%--lowest on record!Oat production down 18%--lowest on record! Barley, down 15%, lowest since 1936!Barley, down 15%, lowest since 1936! Hard red winter wheat dropped 27% (mainly Kansas to Texas)Hard red winter wheat dropped 27% (mainly Kansas to Texas) Texas wheat down 65%! (over $200 mil.); sorghum down 26%Texas wheat down 65%! (over $200 mil.); sorghum down 26% Oklahoma sorghum dropped 35%; wheat down 36%Oklahoma sorghum dropped 35%; wheat down 36% Alabama corn dropped 52%Alabama corn dropped 52% Corn in Texas and South Dakota dropped 20%Corn in Texas and South Dakota dropped 20% Texas peanuts dropped 43%; upland cotton down 36%Texas peanuts dropped 43%; upland cotton down 36%

Record Modern-Day Fire Season

Lake McConaughy NE June 2006 Water should Be up to the boom Man standing

Changes to October 17, 2006

Global Vegetation Image Oct 15, 2006 Devastating drought

The Seasonal Drought Outlooks

Selected Good-Performing Drought Outlook Tools 2-Week Soil Moisture2-Week Soil Moisture Ensemble CCA and CASEnsemble CCA and CAS UKMET SeasonUKMET Season NCDC Palmer Drought Amelioration Probability MapsNCDC Palmer Drought Amelioration Probability Maps

Better Summer Forecast Tools in 2006

How Are We Doing?

Latched on to S Plains Drought Early December 2005 and SW Drought mid-Dec

Keyed in on N Plains Development early July 2006

Time Series of Verification Scores Mean Pct Correct = 51% (was 59% last year) Mean Improvement over Persistence = 14% (was 14%)

Seasonal Scores Forecasts made in NDJ = 63Forecasts made in NDJ = 63 FMA = 45FMA = 45 MJJ = 46MJJ = 46 ASO = 48ASO = 48

Verification Scores vs CPC LL Precipitation Outlooks Correlation of Drought Outlook Scores with HSS for CPC 3-month precipitation outlooks =.33 (34 Outlooks)Correlation of Drought Outlook Scores with HSS for CPC 3-month precipitation outlooks =.33 (34 Outlooks) When Drought Outlook Scores exceed 60, mean HSS = +5When Drought Outlook Scores exceed 60, mean HSS = +5 When Drought Outlook Scores less than 40, mean HSS = -1When Drought Outlook Scores less than 40, mean HSS = -1 Better seasonal precipitation forecasts would help! (Mean HSS = +3)Better seasonal precipitation forecasts would help! (Mean HSS = +3)

Selected Future Improvements NCEP-CPC-EMC-CTB-NLDAS-NASA collaboration effort to support NIDISNCEP-CPC-EMC-CTB-NLDAS-NASA collaboration effort to support NIDIS Collaboration with Univ. of WA and Princeton to improve soil moisture monitoring and forecastingCollaboration with Univ. of WA and Princeton to improve soil moisture monitoring and forecasting Improved multi-model seasonal forecastsImproved multi-model seasonal forecasts Research leading to improved understanding of the underlying causes of drought (e.g., air-sea and ground-air interactions)Research leading to improved understanding of the underlying causes of drought (e.g., air-sea and ground-air interactions)

Parting Wisdom “Just as in being chased by a bear, when you only need to be faster than the next guy, in forecasting, you don’t have to be right all the time, just better than the competition.”“Just as in being chased by a bear, when you only need to be faster than the next guy, in forecasting, you don’t have to be right all the time, just better than the competition.” D. Le Comte

Potential Water Supplies Off to a Good Start Colorado Front Range Loveland Basin Oct. 22, 2006 Elev ft.