Digital Forecast Process Evolution David Ruth December 5, 2008.

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Presentation transcript:

Digital Forecast Process Evolution David Ruth December 5, 2008

Digital Forecast Process Evolution The Digital Forecast Process Numerical Modeling ModelingObservationsNumerical Output Output Model ModelInterpret. Sensible Sensible Weather Weather Forecast Editing Editing Digital DigitalForecast Product ProductGeneration User UserProducts

Digital Forecast Process Evolution The Digital Forecast Process Numerical Modeling Modeling Model ModelInterpret. Forecast Editing Editing Product ProductGeneration Observations Numerical Output Output Sensible Sensible Weather Weather Digital DigitalForecast User UserProducts Matrix Matrix Editing Editing The Human in the Loop

Digital Forecast Process Evolution ICWF Interactive Guidance Revisor ( ) Matrix Editing

Digital Forecast Process Evolution Canada’s SCRIBE Matrix Editing

Digital Forecast Process Evolution The Digital Forecast Process Numerical Modeling Modeling Model ModelInterpret. Forecast Editing Editing Product ProductGeneration Observations Numerical Output Output Sensible Sensible Weather Weather Digital DigitalForecast User UserProducts Matrix Matrix Editing Editing Grid Grid Editing Editing

Digital Forecast Process Evolution Graphical Forecast Editor Grid Editing

Digital Forecast Process Evolution KMA Graphic Editing Module Grid Editing

Digital Forecast Process Evolution The Digital Forecast Process Numerical Modeling Modeling Model ModelInterpret. Forecast Editing Editing Product ProductGeneration Observations Numerical Output Output Sensible Sensible Weather Weather Digital DigitalForecast User UserProducts Object Object Editing Editing Matrix Matrix Editing Editing Grid Grid Editing Editing

Digital Forecast Process Evolution Canada’s Forecast Production Assistant Object Editing

Digital Forecast Process Evolution The Digital Forecast Process Numerical Modeling Modeling Model ModelInterpret. Forecast Editing Editing Product ProductGeneration Observations Numerical Output Output Sensible Sensible Weather Weather Digital DigitalForecast User UserProducts ThresholdAdjustment Matrix Matrix Editing Editing Grid Grid Editing Editing Object Object Editing Editing

Digital Forecast Process Evolution IFPS Slider Bars ( ) Threshold Adjustment

Digital Forecast Process Evolution Interactive Calibration of a 4D Datacube Threshold Adjustment

Digital Forecast Process Evolution IC4D for AAWU

Digital Forecast Process Evolution The Digital Forecast Process Numerical Modeling Modeling Model ModelInterpret. Forecast Editing Editing Product ProductGeneration Observations Numerical Output Output Sensible Sensible Weather Weather Digital DigitalForecast User UserProducts 4D Field 4D FieldModification ThresholdAdjustment Object Object Editing Editing Matrix Matrix Editing Editing Grid Grid Editing Editing

Digital Forecast Process Evolution UKMET 4D Field Modification

Digital Forecast Process Evolution Grid Grid Editing Editing Grid Grid Editing Editing The Digital Forecast Process Numerical Modeling Modeling Model ModelInterpret. Forecast Editing Editing Product ProductGeneration Observations Numerical Output Output Sensible Sensible Weather Weather Digital DigitalForecast User UserProducts 4D Field 4D FieldModification ThresholdAdjustment Object Object Editing Editing Matrix Matrix Editing Editing

Digital Forecast Process Evolution NWS Vision (draft) A safer, better informed, more productive society where environmental knowledge empowers improved decisions in public, private, and commercial life

Digital Forecast Process Evolution NDFD in 2015 Centrally-held, fine-resolution, up-to-the-minute digital forecast database.Centrally-held, fine-resolution, up-to-the-minute digital forecast database. Contains a complete, authoritative, and consistent set of all NWS forecast elements including hydro and aviation.Contains a complete, authoritative, and consistent set of all NWS forecast elements including hydro and aviation. Forecasts remotely modified by WFOs, RFCs, and National Centers in planned and orderly fashion.Forecasts remotely modified by WFOs, RFCs, and National Centers in planned and orderly fashion. Includes information that quantifies forecast uncertaintyIncludes information that quantifies forecast uncertainty National and local products produced from same database using both national and locally-developed software.National and local products produced from same database using both national and locally-developed software.

Digital Forecast Process Evolution Planned and orderly changes Planned and orderly changes Forecasters enhance model guidance for selected days and areas of the county.Forecasters enhance model guidance for selected days and areas of the county. Most of database is not routinely changed from model guidance.Most of database is not routinely changed from model guidance. National/regional conductors pre-approve proposed changes and prepare coordinated forecast plans for various areas of country.National/regional conductors pre-approve proposed changes and prepare coordinated forecast plans for various areas of country. Coordinated forecast plans are viewable inside and outside NWS and evolve throughout the day similar to WFO forecast discussions.Coordinated forecast plans are viewable inside and outside NWS and evolve throughout the day similar to WFO forecast discussions.

Digital Forecast Process Evolution Only what’s important Coordinated forecast plan specifies what guidance, days, elements, and areas to edit as well as target time for publication into NDFD.Coordinated forecast plan specifies what guidance, days, elements, and areas to edit as well as target time for publication into NDFD. Edit areas are defined by daily weather features and terrain, and are not limited by CWA.Edit areas are defined by daily weather features and terrain, and are not limited by CWA. Edits may be reviewed by conductors in central staging area prior to publication into NDFD, depending on the number of offices involved and nature of forecast problem.Edits may be reviewed by conductors in central staging area prior to publication into NDFD, depending on the number of offices involved and nature of forecast problem. Conductors employ tools to resolve problems centrally if necessary.Conductors employ tools to resolve problems centrally if necessary.

Digital Forecast Process Evolution Detailed, consistent, and current Forecasters use standard interactive editing and model interpretation tools from national set with limited use of local tools.Forecasters use standard interactive editing and model interpretation tools from national set with limited use of local tools. Tools preserve high-resolution spatial and temporal details in model guidance.Tools preserve high-resolution spatial and temporal details in model guidance. Tools maintain temporal, spatial, and interelement consistency in real time (not after the fact).Tools maintain temporal, spatial, and interelement consistency in real time (not after the fact). Conductor invokes automated techniques to update early forecast hours to match latest observations in areas of the country experiencing routine weather.Conductor invokes automated techniques to update early forecast hours to match latest observations in areas of the country experiencing routine weather.