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RTMA (Real Time Mesoscale Analysis System) NWS New Mesoscale Analysis System for verifying model output and human forecasts.

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Presentation on theme: "RTMA (Real Time Mesoscale Analysis System) NWS New Mesoscale Analysis System for verifying model output and human forecasts."— Presentation transcript:

1 RTMA (Real Time Mesoscale Analysis System) NWS New Mesoscale Analysis System for verifying model output and human forecasts.

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4 RTMA Downscales a short-term forecast to fine-resolution terrain and coastlines and then uses observations to produce a fine-resolution analysis. Performs a 2-dimensional variational analysis (2d-var) using current surface observations, including mesonets, and scatterometer winds over water, using short-term forecast as first guess. Provides estimates of the spatially-varying magnitude of analysis errors Also includes hourly Stage II precipitation estimates and Effective Cloud Amount, a GOES derived product Either a 5-km or 2.5 km analysis.

5 RTMA The RTMA depends on a short-term model forecast for a first guess, thus the RTMA is affected by the quality of the model's analysis/forecast system CONUS first guess is downscaled from a 1-hour RUC forecast. Because the RTMA uses mesonet data, which is of highly variable quality due to variations in sensor siting and sensor maintenance, observation quality control strongly affects the analysis.

6 Why does NWS want this? Gridded verification of their gridded forecasts (NDFD) Serve as a mesoscale Analysis of Record (AOR) For mesoscale forecasting and studies.

7 7 RUC-RTMA downscaling to detailed RTMA background RTMA 2dVAR update

8 8 RUC-RTMA downscaling to detailed RTMA background RTMA 2dVAR update

9 9 TX 2 m Temperature Analysis

10 10 TX 2 m Temperature Analysis

11 11 TX 2 m Temperature Increment


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