Representation 17 November 2008

The Tracking Polls as of November 3 Obama 51, McCain 44 (DemCorps 10/30=11/2) Obama 51, McCain 43 (NBCWSJ 11/1-2) Obama 52, McCain 42 (Gallup 10/31-11/2) Obama 54, McCain 41 (CBS 10/30-11/1) Obama 54, McCain 43 (ABCPost 10/29-11/1)

Link to CNN mapCNN map

An Historic Election Obama 53% 365 EV; McCain 46% 162 EV Obama carries the battleground states of Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania Obama also wins Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana Obama wins south western states, Colorado, NM, NV Obama also picked up one electoral vote in Nebraska by winning in Omaha congressional district marking the first time a state has split its electoral votes. See NY Times map for shift in vote patterns. See also the National Journal website.NY Times National Journal Who voted for Obama? Exit PollsExit Polls Turnout may have risen but only slightly; one political scientist estimates a turnout of 61.4% of eligible voters which represents a 1.3% increase over It would be the largest turnout since the 62.5 percent turnout in 1968.political scientist

Was it a Landslide? YearRepublicanDemocratDifference

Incumbency Advantage Typically about 90 percent of House incumbents are reelected In the Senate, 78.6 percent have won reelection in the postwar period Even in years very unfavourable to one of the parties, a large majority win. In 1994, the Democrats worst year since 1946, 84 percent won. In 1974, 77 percent of the Republican incumbents who ran were returned to office. In 2006, 94 percent of House incumbents won; in the Senate 79 percent were reelected.

The 2008 Election Democrats picked up 20 seats in the House Democrats gained 6 seats, defeating Republican incumbents in North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Oregon. See NYTimes map.NYTimes map Alaska and Minnesota are still too close to call (206 vote Rep. lead in Minn), and Georgia will hold a runoff on Dec 2 (majority required) Several congressional districts still in doubt: Alaska, Virginia, Ohio (open seat). See NYTimes map.NYTimes map

Presidential Popularity and Congressional Outcomes in the Midterm Elections in a President’s Second Term YearPresidentApprovalHouseSenate 1950Truman Eisenhower Johnson Nixon/Ford Reagan Clinton Bush

Explanations for Incumbency Advantage Name Recognition Redistricting (in the House) Campaign finance system

Elbridge Gerry’s Salamander

Gerrymandering Equal populations Partisan Incumbency Racial

Racial Gerrmandering

Campaign Spending

Campaign Money A good candidate and a good message are not enough. Without money, the voters do not see the candidate or hear the message. In contemporary candidate-centered campaigns, candidates (as opposed to the party organizations) must assemble their own campaign teams, raise their own money, hire consultants and technical specialists, and design and execute their own individual campaign strategies. Recent elections reflect the rise in cost.

Money Raised in 2008 Source: www opensecrets.orgwww opensecrets.org

Ethics and Honesty

Attitudes about Campaign Finance

The Campaign Finance Regulation System Campaign finance operates through two parallel systems: Money going directly to candidates is subject to limits on the size of contributions and full disclosure of sources. See Federal Election Commission.Federal Election Commission. Presidential candidates who accept public funds also must observe spending limits. But money raised and spent outside of the candidates’ campaigns (soft money, issue advocacy) is lightly regulated and not subject to limits.

The Role of the Representative Trustees—legislators who use their own judgment to decide what is right Delegates-legislators who carry out the precise wishes of their constituents back home regardless of what they personally believe is best Descriptive-does congress look like America?

African American and Hispanics in Congress

Women in Congress

Policy Representation