1 Potential Approaches in the 2010 report: “The Common Vision” Mike Sinclair Bedford Institute of Oceanography

2 Setting the Stage for Realm Discussions Questions from SSC: -What is the “common vision” for all of the CoML research? -What did we learn from the presentations of discovery during the Public Symposium? -What are the goals for synthesis at both the project and inter-project levels? -What are the goals at the global versus regional levels?

3 Does anyone recognize this well- worn path? Sand walk at Down House, Kent (Darwin’s home)

4 Historical Perspective on Syntheses of Ecological Observations -150 yrs ago Synthesis of “First census of life” by Charles Darwin and Alfred Wallace -Beagle(1831 to 1836) -Malay Archipelago(1854 to …..?) -November 1857 a remarkable period of synthesis: Darwin writing chapter 9 of his big book (never published), Wallace writing ‘Note on the Theory of Permanent and Geographic Varieties’ -Conceptual breakthrough jointly published in 1858: Natural Selection as the process explaining patterns of species diversity

5 Historical Perspective on Syntheses of Ecological Observations-80 yrs ago Synthesis of first(?) “Census of Terrestrial Arctic Life”, Oxford University Expedition to Spitsbergen -Ecological survey of a comparatively simple system of Arctic communities -Generated classic ‘Animal Ecology’, by Charles Elton in 1927(10 impressions by 1967) -Conceptual advances included niche concept, food-chains, pyramid of numbers….. -Established modern approach to population and community ecology

6 Historical Perspective on Syntheses of Ecological Observations -conclusions Observations from historical perspective: -prepared minds (individuals!) -intensive analyses of diverse empirical observations -innovative thinking -unexpected conceptual advances generating explanatory power and predictions -time lag between observations and syntheses -generally done by young scientists (Darwin, 33; Wallace, 35; Elton, 26)

7 WOCE “Census”: Synthesis from processes to predictions

8 WOCE  Argo: Census, processes, predictions Argo Real Time Status 01/11/ Active Floats 5-day forecast of Sea Surface Temperature ( o C) Valid 00Z 05 Nov 2007

9 Initial Discussions on CoML Synthesis-1 Led by Ram Myers in October 2005, provides thoughts on structure and content of synthesis: “Domesday Book” of marine life -Mechanistic understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of biodiversity -Biodiversity conservation in the global oceans -Technology and protocols -Intellectual capacity

10 Initial Discussions on CoML Synthesis-2 Examples of priorities for inter-project synthesis on benthic ecology conceptual issues from 2006 Maastricht ICES discussion group co-chaired by Roland Pitcher (CReefs) and Steve Smith (GoMA): -Characterizing and predicting spatial patterns in benthic community types at a variety of scales (temporal/spatial) based upon depth, currents, energy sources, sediments, etc. (include surrogates) -Characterizing sensitivity and recovery rates of benthic community types to natural and anthropogenic disturbance, including the role of biodiversity in stability -Predicting indirect consequences of disturbances to benthic communities on the ecosystems as a whole

11 Predicted sensitivity to disturbance BenignAdverse Stable Disturbed

12 Initial Discussions on CoML Synthesis-3 Examples of “Big Issues” from projects in Framework Report: -FMAP: What shapes patterns of marine biodiversity in the past, present, and future; and how can we predict future changes… -CeDAMar: Has the abyss been a region of adaptive radiation and evolutionary novelty, or merely a sink for species displaced from more hospitable slope habitats… -MAR-ECO: Understand the patterns of distribution, abundance and trophic relationships of the organisms… and identify and model ecological processes that cause variability in these patterns… Most projects identify understanding of processes and enhancing predictive capacity as a “big issue”

13 Summary of Perspective of CoML Scientists Strong focus in synthesis for understanding processes: - interpretation of patterns, and capacity for predictions - contribute to ecological theory (e.g. test Hubbell’s 2001“Neutral Theory” of biodiversity in a marine biogeographic context) - emerging needs of the “ecosystem approach” to integrated management (causality and cumulative effects)

14 “The Common Vision” for CoML Research Looked again for help from Darwin: “My mind seems to have become a kind of machine for grinding general laws out of large collections of facts…” (from his autobiography) -captures the desire for understanding ecological processes -misses the links to conservation

15 A “Common Vision” for CoML Research A Vision: - Skill-full integrated management of ocean-use activities based on robust interpretations and predictions of patterns of marine biodiversity Recall that “Mission” of CoML is: -”Assess and explain the changing diversity, distribution, and abundance of marine species from the past to the present, and project future marine life.”

16 Species Richness & Ecosystem Control Overfishing Reduces species richnessReduces species richness May cause flip from bottom – up to top – down control (Frank et al., 2007)May cause flip from bottom – up to top – down control (Frank et al., 2007) Need to develop quantitative understanding of relationships amongst exploitation & species richness & ocean climate

17 From Phillipe Cury

18 Closing Comments “The voyage of the Beagle has been by far the most important event in my life, and has determined my whole career.” -from a “Census of Life” to “a grand synthesis” -we need to start walking on our “thinking path” -Realm discussions are a step on that path

19 Darwin’s “Thinking Path”

20 The end

21

22 A relevant comment by MacArthur and Wilson, 40 years ago “Global patterns of distribution also need to be reconsidered. We know that species diversity, relative abundance, and population geometry change with climate. Such variation affects on the one hand the structure, stability, and energy flow of the plant and animal communities. It must also affect the rate and perhaps mode of speciation, together with the propensity for adaptive radiation”.(page 182, “The Theory of Island Biogeography”)

23 Historical Perspective on Syntheses of Ecological Observations-40 yrs ago The Theory of Island Biogeography(1967) by Robert MacArthur and Edward Wilson Perhaps a “Census of Island Life” -Classical equilibrium theory of island biogeograhy -Interprets patterns of species by area -Basis of new ‘Neutral Theory’ of biodiversity in a biogeographic context (Hubbell 2001)