1. US GLOBEC Before and After
Eileen Hofmann
Old Dominion University

2. Outline of Presentation
Understanding prior to GLOBEC
Advances in understanding physical-biological interactions resulting from GLOBEC science
Moving forward from what has been learned from GLOBEC

3. Pre-GLOBEC Recruitment to marine fish populations depended on
Critical period - variations in larval feeding and nutrition
larval feeding was viewed in terms of a direct link from zooplankton to the consumer
Aberrant drift - advection into favorable or unfavorable environmental conditions
the scales of the physical environment were known but the details of the scales that were relevant to the planktonic organism were essentially unexplored

4. Pre-GLOBEC
Physical oceanography and biological studies were essentially separate disciplines
difficulties in attributing causes, effects and mechanism
Studies restricted to a limited locations and short times
decadal and longer time variability not recognized as driving forces
Lack of linkage and cohesion between the observational and modeling communities

5. Science Challenge
To understand the dependence of marine population dynamics on the physical structure of the ocean and to link this to ecosystem dynamics (NAS, Steele et al., 1987)
GLOBEC Goal
“…. understand how climate change and variability will translate into changes in the structure and dynamics of marine ecosystems and in fishery production”

6. Scales of Processes
View that marine ecosystems operate along a continuum defined by space and time underpinned much of the research that was undertaken during GLOBEC
GLOBEC --> View has evolved to one in which marine ecosystem variability and population recruitment result from the integration of processes across all scales and includes direct as well as indirect interactions
Clarified more about interactions

7. Processes at all scales influence variability of marine organisms and
populations
Studies of marine
ecosystems require
integration of the
environmental drivers
and biological responses
Dickey and sundby

8. Scales of Processes
Pick out key scales and follow these through system
Multiple optima in ecosystems and have begun to understand interactions that produce these
Pick out what is important - across certain processes which give certain optima for achieving outcomes - example is through physical environment to zooplankton to fishery recruitment - multiple optima in ecosystems - interactive processes and have begun to understand more about these interactions

9. Scale of aggregation depends
Scales of spatial variation
Scale of aggregation depends
on view of system
Different physcal and biological intearcaitons occur across scalea and area imporatnt ot scales

10. Structure modifies the operation of the ecosystem
Scale of aggregations - exploited by different predators
Krill are important to different parts of the food web because of a spatial structure that covers many scales
Longevity and overwinter survival allows spatial and temporal transfer
Makes energy available to predators

11. GLOBEC - Recruitment patterns
Why patterns occur and what are key processes?

12. Knowledge of scale interactions have resulted in
additional hypotheses about physical-biological
controls on recruitment

13. Alternative food web structures
Implications for production and maintenance of predators
Understand the
causes for change
and key processes

14. Development of conceptual frameworks for
recruitment that encompass multiple scales
Moving on to test with field studies and numerical modeling studies - moving towards testing
Development of field and modeling programs to test
conceptual models of ecosystem structure and function

15. Modeling Physical-Biological Interactions
Modeling is central to GLOBEC science
Built on scientific and technological advances, such as realistic circulation models
Integration of IBMs with circulation models resulted in ability to determine transport pathways, residence times, controls on growth
Allowed identification of spawning areas, recruitment regions, connectivity of populations at a range of scales

16. Realistic Regional Circulation Models Include sea ice, coupling
Coastal Gulf
of Alaska
Realistic Regional
Circulation Models
Include sea ice, coupling
to atmospheric models
and larger scale models
West Antarctic
Peninsula
Georges Bank

17. Advection Autochtonous – Allocthonous production
Displaces production
Disconnects
Production - Mortality
Production - Export
Advection Autochtonous – Allocthonous production

18. Population connectivity at regional to circumpolar scales
Speirs et al.(2006)
Spiers et al.
Tian et al. (2009)
Connection between spawning and
recruitment regions
Inclusion of detailed biology provides process understanding
Importance of comparative studies
Thorpe et al. (2007)

19. Physical-biological models evolved to systems of
interconnected modules
Developed around data sets
from GLOBEC programs
NEMURO - minimum trophic
structure and biological
relationships … thought to
be essential in describing
ecosystem dynamics in the
North Pacific

20. GLOBEC Target species Approach
deYoung et al. (2004)
GLOBEC
Target species
Approach
Similar to cliotop - put predators on lower trohpic levels
Top down and bottom up controls operate simultaneously but
relative effect of each is variable

21. GLOBEC science evolved to include humans as part of the
marine food web
Perry et al. (2010)
Importance of top predators
including humans
Barange et al. (2010)

22. Physical-biological Interactions GLOBEC Science
Ecosystems result from interactions across multiple scales
Comparative studies provide insights beyond those from single program
Target species approach allowed picking out key processes - compare with other systems
Top predators, including humans, are integral parts of food web
Physical, biological, observational, and observational communities focused on integrated research programs

23. Future Directions Next challenge
Provide meaningful forecasts and projections
of marine population variability and response to
climate change and human impacts
Inform and decelop methiods to do combine two
Climate/
JGOFS
Heat Distribution/
Biogeochemistry
Budgets/
Elemental cycles
Weather/ GLOBEC
Synoptic patterns/
Population dynamics
Events/
Species

24. Link regional and basin-scale models Expand beyond regional focus
Methods for
Down/Up
Scaling of
Physical-biological
Models

25. Temperature warming and cod recruitment
Climate Projections
Ecosystem Responses
Fogarty et al. (2008)
Temperature warming and cod recruitment

26. Relevance to Global Ecosystems
Global carbon budget models lack biological detail
Current models do not capture what is known about
ecosystems and harvesting/human impacts

27. What Needed?
Sustained observations that support predictions and forecasts
Continued integration of observations and models from outset of programs
Explicit inclusion of human dimension
Estimates of uncertainty and communication of this to policy makers
Educational outreach to public sector

28. Concluding Remarks
GLOBEC science advanced state of models, data sets, and conceptual understanding of physical-biological interactions that underlie marine population variability
Provides basis to develop the integrative research programs between the natural, social, and economic sciences that are needed to understand and sustain the world’s ocean in an era of increasing change and uncertainty